johny, usually less than 24 hrs..
An interesting phenomenon due to the lowering in valuation of BTC is that measured in USD i have cashed out 22% of my investment. But measured in BTC (which is what i transferred initially) i have cashed out close to 50% since February 13th. I did not put all money in at once, it has been a gradual increase. 45% at the beginning in Feb and the other 55% gradually in the next 2 months.
Conceding the probability that BTC will rise in valuation in the future and even hypothesizing that BT.biz will not refund the initial cost of share for whatever reason which is a worse-worse scenario, i reckon i will come out even in my speculative/gambling/investment.
Another thing of interest is that when BTC goes down in price Vs. the USD the % return for that day will be lower which leads me to venture the opinion that at least some of the arbitrage of the company is done against USD, ergo when btc rises we will see modest increases in % earned for the day which will not necessarily reflect the percentage moves of the underlying USD/BTC pair.
I will not reinvest any more till the first loop of maturity comes due mid june.
As with any other investment/speculative venture in BTC, do not risk that which you cannot lose. I am not an investment advisor and anybody that construes the above paragraphs as advise -or anything but deranged musings- is delusional.
My best advise: have fun.
Thanks for you advice and answer. Your elaborated analysis quite surpriced me.
What do you mean with 'loop of maturity'? The fund started in November, so + 120 days we are in February, when the first investors could pull back their capital.
The risks are here bigger as in total return swaps (20% a year at bitfinex), but when they are calculatable, its ok for me.
For the near future I dont see a rise in XBT as well no fall. XBT was normally very stable entity. However, when adaption fails or popularity grows again, than I would consider bitcoin-trader as a risky speculative investment. What i can see in the future is a slow rise in difficulty and steady development of the blockchain, what is going to make cryptos very successfull.
Thanks again for your answer.