Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts

tranthidung

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Glassnode Insights with their latest report has an update on Bitcoin trend accumulation by cohorts.

Week 18, 2024 report

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Accumulation Trend Score
First, we will employ the Accumulation Trend Score to illustrate how investor accumulation patterns have shaped local tops and bottoms since the FTX crash.

During the early stages of both the 2020-21 and 2023-24 bull runs, we can see a confluence between local regimes of distribution (light colours) and intervals of price contraction. As the market rallies to new highs, sell pressure is re-activated, as investors bring dormant supply back into the market to satisfy the inflowing demand.

As spot price reached new ATHs in mid-March, the same pattern of local distribution occurred, which was intensified as news around the conflict in the Middle East broke, causing a correction to $60.3k.

Bull local distribution break-down
If we inspect the breakdown of this metric by wallet sizes, we can complete a more detailed assessment. Here we see a distinct uptick in net outflows 🟥 across all cohorts throughout April, suggesting a consistent sell-side pressure across the board.

I really hope to see this healthy correction and local distribution lasts for a while, like some months to help NUPL to drop further.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/

tranthidung

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After one month, perhaps it's good time to have an update on Bitcoin Trend accumulation score by cohorts. After some weeks of chaos and corrections, all cohorts are selling except the 10+ cohort which is still accumulating.

If you took profit during last four weeks, it's time to think of accumulation back. Weeks ago, I posted that Bitcoin probably will drop to $52k to $53k but I also want to emphasize that with order filling market, peak, bottom and accumulation phase of the market will be in range, not a price point.

So if you are going long term with Bitcoin, it's time for returning with accumulation.

tranthidung

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People are continuing their Bitcoin accumulations and the blue is dominating all bands and expands more with time.

Another on-chain data source, from CryptoQuant, we have some additional information about accumulation from Retail Cohorts.

They are back but their on-chain activities still are not enough to identify that the bull run already hits its peak. Two used metrics are BTC Unrealized Profit Ratio for Retail Cohorts; and Realized Cap < 1 Month (%).

With the first metric, he said Bitcoin probably already is half of its way to Euphoria area that I agree with because my target price would be somewhere around $120,000.

I don't exclude that with Bitcoin Spot ETF capital and impacts, Bitcoin might do more than doubling its 2021 ATH.

tranthidung

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Some whales sparsely sold their bitcoins but the good news is all cohorts are still in blue and we are going to accumulation phase for all.

Sell days ago and bought a dip or sell now and wait for another dip that might or might not come. What will you do?

Holding your bitcoin if you missed both chances to take profit above $69,000 and a dip to $59,000.
Selling now and wait for a dip with lot of hope that it will come but as said, it might not come.

tranthidung

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Ecoinometrics gives similar information in their newsletter.

A bullish Bitcoin whales pattern.

Whales are setting up the game but will you join their party and take advantage of it or you just react like other small fishes and waste this free opportunity. You decide.

Also, please read

We are still early in this bull run. Retails have yet come back massively!
In early of a bull run, you need to hold tightly, tight your seat-bell and hold your bitcoin

tranthidung

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Quote from: kryptqnick on February 27, 2024, 12:29:52 PM

Okay, so we can see that Bitcoin accumulation is happening, and that richer owners are accumulating coins more than those who own less (but the trend is expanding to smaller owners as well). But what does that really give us?
...
For now, there's only a tiny bit of blue if we consider 2024, and it's hard to say if it's going to actually be a major accumulation trend like in November 2023.

I understand it but a trend must be started with some light signals. Sometimes it will fail to create a trend but sometimes, from early light signals, we will gradually see a new solid trend. Let's see.

Quote from: AprilioMP on February 27, 2024, 12:50:40 PM

This is the only thing that can be done as the best option if the ability to collect more Bitcoins like big whales is not possible.

Perhaps you misinterpret my post. By "like whales", I meant that we can follow the game making progress of whales, if they are accumulating and we see it, have spare fund for investment, let's accumulate bitcoin like them but with awareness that whales always have long term plans so don't follow them and expect to get profit in short term.

"like whales" does not mean we are able to buy big amount of BTC like whales. It's a misunderstood point.

Quote from: yhiaali3 on February 27, 2024, 03:04:30 PM

These are great indicators of the great optimism and confidence that ordinary people and large companies have in Bitcoin’s ability to surpass previous peaks and achieve ATH after halving, so naturally all people currently will follow the strategy of accumulating and holding.

They can say it, accumulating and holding but I am sure many of them will fail to hold. They will shake their hands in a bull run with correction because they will believe in fud like, the bull run is over.

If we can hold, we belong to small percent of diamond handed investors and we will have chance to take profit at better price.

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Yes, things have become more exciting, even with the price of Bitcoin rising above $57K. Buying and accumulation are still continuing, even from large companies such as MicroStrategy, which recently purchased an additional 3,000 Bitcoins worth $155 million during the period between February 15 and 25.

These are great indicators of the great optimism and confidence that ordinary people and large companies have in Bitcoin’s ability to surpass previous peaks and achieve ATH after halving, so naturally all people currently will follow the strategy of accumulating and holding.

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Quote from: tranthidung on January 23, 2024, 06:34:29 AM

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Accumulating more bitcoins like whales or if you can not do accumulation, just hold and wait for a bull run.

This is the only thing that can be done as the best option if the ability to collect more Bitcoins like big whales is not possible.
Honestly, the current accumulation trend surprised me, but not for those who are used to experiencing Bitcoin's highest prices like the previous ATHs.

By holding back and waiting until a high price increase occurs, at least we will be able to feel happiness, even though it's not as big as them.
When the big players with the Bitcoin amount celebrated the time of the highest price, I was also part of that history.
Can't wait for the highest price moment to enter new history.

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Okay, so we can see that Bitcoin accumulation is happening, and that richer owners are accumulating coins more than those who own less (but the trend is expanding to smaller owners as well). But what does that really give us? If I understand the chart correctly, October-December of 2023 were the months of active accumulation, and the price gradually grew as well. But there was also some accumulation in April 2023 which was followed by only a modest and temporary price increase. Also, during the gradual fall of the price in May-June, the richest cohort was in accumulation phase.
For now, there's only a tiny bit of blue if we consider 2024, and it's hard to say if it's going to actually be a major accumulation trend like in November 2023.

tranthidung

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The accumulation trend has been expanding to smaller wallet cohorts. Things are becoming more interesting and Bitcoin is on fire.

Even it is only in light blue, it is a start of something big.

Please share that are you still holding your bitcoin or already sold it and are waiting for corrections?

Best has yet come as Google search volume has yet soar

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Quote from: pakhitheboss on February 22, 2024, 09:49:31 AM

To consider that we are talking about Bitcoin price and speculating it l, why this topic is on Bitcoin discussion board?

Who do talk about price here?

Quote from: buwaytress on February 22, 2024, 10:55:44 AM

It's something I heartily support -- not least because it meets the holder requirement I'd think up. Too often you hear about "holders" but they're really speculators over the long term.

Maybe we can use different time threshold for holding to define holders. Like the HODL waves, many bands for hodl waves and surely that with different bands, we have different hodlers.

Quote from: avikz on February 22, 2024, 11:40:39 AM

Well the trend isn't surprising! Not just whales, even the common people like us are accumulating as much as they can. Because the positivity around the market is very high. Firstly it started with the Bitcoin ETF and we all know that halving is just around the corner. So a Bull run is almost immenent. People use such kind of indicators before accumulating more and more Bitcoins. That's normal.

It is easy to think people are hyped by Bitcoin Spot ETFs but on-chain data is helpful for us to see whale accumulation. They are market markers and it's good to see they are back with accumulation for higher highs.

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We all are hoping to make a decent profit after the halving event.

Check

Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you

avikz

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Well the trend isn't surprising! Not just whales, even the common people like us are accumulating as much as they can. Because the positivity around the market is very high. Firstly it started with the Bitcoin ETF and we all know that halving is just around the corner. So a Bull run is almost immenent. People use such kind of indicators before accumulating more and more Bitcoins. That's normal.

We all are hoping to make a decent profit after the halving event.

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^ because this isn't price speculation post, but a discussion of accumulation trend (and what is defined by the subject, which is a holder of 10+ BTC across a long term.

It's something I heartily support -- not least because it meets the holder requirement I'd think up. Too often you hear about "holders" but they're really speculators over the long term.

I note I'm not a holder, neither by the period (I liquidated essentially everything only after 4 years, was forced into it) nor by the 10 BTC count, which I'd never have remotely reached even if I didn't liquidate.

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To consider that we are talking about Bitcoin price and speculating it l, why this topic is on Bitcoin discussion board?

@mods, are you trying something or you guys don't have an answer to my question. If this topic stays on this board then I will create another topic in the way that OP did and if it gets removed the first question you will hear from me will quote this thread as na example.

Coming back to the topic.

Great analysis by you @OP as it has is evident. If we look back to the history it sometimes repart it and sometimes it doesn't doesn't repeat with Bitcoin. I know Bitcoin will be the reason for the next good or bad market outcome. In the current generation when you have AI influence, do you think your output is relevant as I can get such outcome s from an AI and still it won't be relevant.

tranthidung

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Three top categories for >10k, 1k-10k, 100-1k, have good continuation and prolong of their accumulations. We can see these top band are all in blue that signal whale accumulation. Below top three whale bands, other Bitcoin holders have been taking profit and temporarily exiting the market.

This is detected by Cryptoquant and their own metric with definition for accumulative addresses.

Quote from: https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1760114832114876700

Definition of an Accumulation Address:

1/ No outgoing txns.
2/ Balance exceeding 10 BTC.
3/ Excludes accounts belonging to centralized exchanges (CEXs) or miners.
4/ Has received more than two incoming txns.
5/ The most recent transaction occurred within the last 7 years.

tranthidung

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It continues to expand with top three cohorts in blue color and if you compare with a chart in OP, a top cohort continues to accumulate bitcoins that is a good on-chain signal of biggest whale cohort's accumulation.

Connect it with previous cycles, when Bitcoin take off around a halving, usually after, it will be unstoppable.

tranthidung

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Above is the chart from Glassnode for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.

Because

Halving is only three months ahead
Big whales have been accumulating bitcoin for their games.

The point of this thread is the 10+k Cohort just started their accumulation. See the top blue row in the chart and now we have three top rows (whales) are accumulating Bitcoin after long time of distribution.

Accumulating more bitcoins like whales or if you can not do accumulation, just hold and wait for a bull run.

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