Part of the problem of selling too many BTC too soon is that it causes psychological problems involved in buying back in, so instead of having regrets, any of us should be making sure that we have enough BTC. and so right now, if you conclude that you don't have enough BTC, then the main solution to that is buying.. and yeah of course, you can have some plans in case the BTC price dips, but the main thing is to buy more BTC if your conclusion is that you do not have enough BTC... It can take a long time to build up any savings including a BTC portfolio, yet one of the advantages of BTC is that once you get to a point in which you have enough, then you can likely start to draw from them and have a reliable income, yet in the meantime, you have to get to that point of having enough prior to being able to start drawing from them.
you are right, that why I won't encourage low coiners like myself to think of selling from their investment with the mindset of replacing it back, because one doing so how certain, would you buy back in a lower price. Because buying when the price low , is an advantage to have more quantities in your portfolio than buying when the price is high, just as you said one should focus on Accumulating so that as time goes he may get to point of having enough, and earn his self a reliable income.
I consider that there could be something like 3 categories of low coiners behaviors.. .
1)
whimpy low coiner - they are seemingly purposefully causing themselves to be a low coiner by their chosen level of whimpiness in their thinking about bitcoin and maybe their failure to set any kind of specific plan and to act
2)
sufficiently aggressive low coiner - who is trying to be as aggressive as he can in accumulating BTC while managing his financial situation to have an emergency and reserve funds in order that he can attempt to maximize his aggressiveness without over doing it.. so maybe this person is continuously making progress in building his BTC stash, but sometimes is feeling like he is not making progress when the BTC prices are down.
3) an
overly aggressive low coiner - who trades, gambles and involves himself with shitcions, and maybe has similar goals as 2), but does not have as much discipline so bets big, is anxious to get rich quick so takes unnecessary risks, does not maintain adequate reserves/emergency funds and considers that everything will just work itself out (including good luck) and maybe even contributes to his own losses and/or failure to make progress in building his BTC portfolio
As you seem to recognize, I think that we should be aspiring to be like number 2 to the best of our own abilities and within the confines of our own circumstances.. with some level of aggressiveness in organizing our budget, psychology and our regular BTC buying practices, and to have patience in terms of continuing to realize that it takes time to build our BTC stash that may or may not be comparable to the size of some people who have other circumstances.. so we may well not even consider ourself a low coiner if we are accumulating coin to the best of our ability, then as compared to other versions of ourself, we may well not be a low coiner, and with the passage of years of accumulating, it is likely that our prior self is not even going to be able to keep up with us.. which is similar that it is likely that our peers are also not going to be able to catch with us, especially if we can make it through a whole cycle of ongoing, persistent and consistent BTC accumulation... and to survive by not recking ourselves along the way.
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Living off of your trades is one thing, yet one of the important things about bitcoin is that it is a great investment vehicle.
So if a guy is able to live off of trading and live a regular life, while at the same time having enough left over that he is able to save between 5% and 25% of his income into bitcoin, then he is doing even better because he is saving for a future - otherwise, he is going to be working his whole life and never getting anywhere.. so I am not sure if that would be a very good way to live... and so yeah, sure how are you going to measure the matter in terms of comparing to other kinds of work that he might be able to do.
Let's say that he generally could get work for $4k per month, and so his expenses might be $3k, so then he ends up investing $1k per month and/or $250 per week into bitcoin. Historically we could look this up to see how many bitcoin he would have had after 5 years or 10 years of investing in that kind of a way. A guy who trades might be skimming off value to live, but then he also might be building his investment capital so that he is able to work with more and more capital the longer that he is trading, the more investment capital he is able to build up... But then is he putting that capital at risk? probably. The trader has a mentality to always be putting his capital to work, and so maybe a question of success would be how much is his investment capital growing, and is it growing at a similar rate as someone who had been able to have a regular job and to put aside $250 per week for the past 10 years.
My Hypothetical 2 guy has right around 115 BTC after 10 years of investing $250 per week into BTC, which surely is not a bad place to be. Is the trader going to beat hypothetical 2 guy? and hypothetical 5 guy shows that $250 per week would have resulted in around 5 bitcoin up until now if his investment timeline had been for 5 years.
I am not good in math with that 10 year frame but sure it is going to be worth it with that journey if someone is able to invest $250/week or $1k/monthly. That's how it goes but I am also as well thinking about the itching side of the probable selling during that period and it might not reach that amount after 10 years. But the good thing with this is that guy that does accumulation weekly or monthly is still on the right path whether he's going to have some tough decision that he has decided to sell some. And as for that 5 year hypo guy, that's more likely what it is going to be with most people today but the consistency is one thing that's hard to maintain.
Well it is a matter of time, whether a guy is a 5 year guy, a 10 year guy or somewhere further down the road. We cannot really know how our investment will perform, but we can attempt to gauge how much we are putting in. So if $250 per week is about $13k per year (that is 52 weeks in a year), then after 10 years, the guy would have had invested $130k. and so after 5 years he would have had invested $65k. So part of the results is how much a guy puts in, and then how well the investment ends up performing.
In traditional investing, there are many folks who invest 30-40 years, and they never make fuck you status... and yeah maybe they are not consistent and maybe they do not even invest 10% of their salary, since we know that if you are investing 10% of your salary, it is still going to take 10 years for your investment to add up to 1 year of your salary, so some folks might figure out that there are ways to be more aggressive with their investment in order to shorten the timeline that it is going to take to build up several years of their salary (or their living expenses) because if they can learn how to live fairly frugally, then they realize that they don't need to spend as much or to have as much saved up in order to be able to support themselves, once they decide to stop working (or to stop earning income through work).. so at some point they will be able to start to draw on their investment to either completely support themselves or to supplement their living situation.
With something like bitcoin, no one can tell you how long that you have to wait before starting to draw upon it as income and/or to supplement your living, but we likely hear about way too many guys who start to shave off their profits way too early, so they never end up getting to the point in which their BTC would be able to completely support all of their living expenses for the rest of their lives, which would also be considered a passive income - if the only thing that you have to do to receive it is to account for it.
Even though I am already coming to conclude that it is likely in bitcoin that we are not going to need as much of a nest egg as we need in traditional finances in order to support ourselves from our BTC stash, since in traditional investment we need right around 25x our income in order to be able to live off of our income (which is assuming a 4% withdrawal rate), and I am starting to consider that with bitcoin 10-16.7 years of income may well be enough (which is assuming a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate).. but it is still risky to overly rely on the newer models and those kinds of potential more aggressive withdrawal rates that bitcoin might be able to provide since it is more of an untested system and fairly new, so it may well be much better to rely on more conservative models and to have some cushion in the size of he BTC stash before pulling any fuck you lever that would then put you in a position where you are having to live off of your BTC stash.
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I also do admire those people that have been completely reliant to Bitcoin in all means of their survival. Like how? through trading or any other tasks that they're paid to do so. But if it's with trading, I'd say that it's kind of hard to survive with it and be wholly reliant on it having no other source of living. But I know the fact that there are traders, full time, that can make as much as they can but with the perspective of not a trader or just do it casually, it's truly hard.
Well, that's the only thing that you can do about this kind of thing, it's not your money and they can survive. Seeing people reliant on trading for their daily expenses is like watching a those stunt drivers in circuses do deadly tricks and showmanship, they don't have to do it as there are other ways to do it but they do it anyway and you're in awe that they're risking their lives just to live another day of not starving. It's really difficult to make money with trading especially with a lot of retail investors and small traders losing a lot of money because they don't know how to do it and they're lacking in information to do informed decisions so that's double the admiration if you think about it, watching that computer all day without rest and having to rely on meager profit through scalping, you can only watch or listen in awe when you see this and when these traders tell you this kind of things that they're doing.
When it comes to trading, I am not opposed to the idea of using it as a way to learn more about markets, but not as a way to earn money or to substitute salary from regular work. With trading, I also agree with the idea of using real money rather than fake (training) websites that do not use real value, but the fact that you are using real money does not mean that you have to bet big, and maybe you could have $100 as your total trading budget.... and so you could set up 20 trades that are $5 each.. . and of course, if you have an investment portfolio that is $100k, then you could practice with $1k of that (which is only 1% of the size of your investment stash.. just for the purposes of learning.. if that might be what you want to do)...
in 9 years , that is how I regret my past selling specially when I got bad in gambling and when I starter to wake up from my mistakes here is the pandemic that I need to take all my funds out.
March 2020 would have surely been a bad time to sell your BTC, unless you figured out your mistake and bought back soon thereafter, even if you figure out that you had made a mistake.
It took me till 2022 before starting again because it is late 2021 that i got back my Job from pandemic so need to prioritize everything to stash my folio once again and gladly I am now.
It can be tough losing a source of income, and then maybe trying to figure out what to do in terms of other possible income and/or even self-training to be able to potentially do other kinds of work.
but yeah since 2022 I started to recover again and now those mistakes will never happen again.
thank you for reminding us how grateful we are being in Bitcoin investing.
It is good that if you started back up in 2022.. so yeah, keep going and keep building your BTC stash, even if it is just a modest amount of $100 per week or whatever you can do..
actually that's what I am doing now , 100$ a week or sometimes even a little higher when there are extra work for a week, not minding how much the price is because Like you i believe that bitcoin will be here and growing in the coming years and not just now and tomorrow.
You are truly aspiring us small investors to keep trusting this great currency..Thank you.
So yeah you surely can be flexible with the amount that you put into bitcoin based on your cashflow and expenses, and surely you have to be careful to make sure that you are not overdoing it. and you have some other funds in case you have some kind of an emergency that might relate to your income or your expenses, and looking at the bright side, there should be some hope with people to have such a thing as bitcoin as a possible investment, even though there are a lot of other things screwed up in macro systems, yet bitcoin does seem to offer some really good possibilities for continued great payout down the line, as long as you don't screw it up by cashing out too early.. and just continuing to build it to get your stack size to a point in which it largely might start to be able to sustain itself, once you decide it is time to start to draw upon it.
Regarding your ideas about trusting bitcoin, you still have to keep in mind your own position size because there are not any guarantees in bitcoin, even though it is currently seeming to be the best of investments currently available.. so in that regard, you have to consider position size in terms of both that you could lose up to 100% of everything that you put in, and yet at the same time there are upside calculations of various returns that you may well be able to get based on still quite low levels of adoption, so there remains so much more potential for growth in terms of bitcoins addressable market that is likely in the territory of 1,000x the value of gold, even though we are currently around 1/10th the price of gold (in terms of market cap), so surely it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin to reach fair market value relative to gold, and at the same time, our investment timeline is way shorter than even 50 years, and many of us are likely investing for periods of 4-10 years or longer and surely there is variance in terms of when we are going to start to expect to want t begin to draw upon our bitcoin investment... where we might convert from a net BTC accumulator and into a net BTC liquidator..
