Topic: Bitcoin will get half million dollars prices by 2030 : Blockchain.info CEO - page 5. (Read 4027 times)

I would retire instantly if I was able to hold as much money as $500,000 in 10 years. I think most of us wouldn't still be at official retirement age, so that would me amazing.

But im confused about this thread title. It says "blockchain.info CEO", but the one that said this is the original snapchat investor.

Well if the price of bitcoins goes more than 4000$ at the end of this year .well we can say that the price of bitcoins may rise upto 50k $ at the end of 2030 .but it is very unlikely that it is going to happen as there are many factorrs that are causing the bitcoin price to not hike so much .

We will take a look on some of the factors why they made such projections:

"Remittance transfers are one reason. Bitcoin transfers to foreign countries have nearly doubled in the past 15 years and account for 0.75% of GDP, according to the World Bank."

-No doubt the growth was great and expect that it will continously do so in the following years to come. Just imagined per year, bitcoin users are increasing in numbers and that will include the transaction between country to country.

"The growth of mobile transactions is another factor. Non-cash transactions will jump from 15% to 30% over the next decade as smartphone use increases. The total number of smartphone users is expected to reach 1 billion by 2020."

-Chances are high but we can't say that additional smartphone users will become a bitcoin enthusiast. Just today the numbers are pretty low compare to the whole users of smartphone that uses cryptocurrency.

These are also interesting ingsights:

"A $1,000 bitcoin price in 2017."

Eventually a start of the new journey to the moon in the upcoming years.

"The bitcoin user network will grow 61 times through 2030. A population of bitcoin users comprising 5% of the world’s population in 2030 will drive the price to $500,000 in 2030. From 2013 to 2017, the network grew from 120,000 users to 6.5 million users, nearly a 54-fold gain. Such growth would produce 400 million users in 2030."

It should and expected.

"The average bitcoin value per user will hit $25,000. When institutional investors cash in their bitcoins, bitcoin-based ETFs and trading by sophisticated investors will increase, pushing the average value to $25,000. With a current market cap of $17.4 billion and 6.5 million users, the average user now holds $2,515 of bitcoin."

"The 2030 market cap is based on the number of bitcoin holders multiplied by the average held bitcoin value."

"The cryptocurrency’s 2030 supply will be about 20 million."

"The 2030 price and user count will total $500,000 and 400 million, respectively. The price is determined by taking the $10 trillion market cap and dividing it by 20 million bitcoins, the fixed supply."

What a fearless forecast they have and really interesting to see that it will happen. What do other think of that?

Their rationale is based on significant assumptions and there's no logic or support as to why these assumptions are valid. Let's look at their 6 assumptions and assign whether these are true/valid or completely speculative.

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Smith and Liew based their projection on the following model drivers.

(1) A $1,000 bitcoin price in 2017. TRUE.

(2) The bitcoin user network will grow 61 times through 2030. A population of bitcoin users comprising 5% of the world’s population in 2030 will drive the price to $500,000 in 2030. From 2013 to 2017, the network grew from 120,000 users to 6.5 million users, nearly a 54-fold gain. Such growth would produce 400 million users in 2030. SPECULATION - they're assuming that bitcoin user network grows at the same pace that it has for the last 4 years.

(3) The average bitcoin value per user will hit $25,000. When institutional investors cash in their bitcoins, bitcoin-based ETFs and trading by sophisticated investors will increase, pushing the average value to $25,000. With a current market cap of $17.4 billion and 6.5 million users, the average user now holds $2,515 of bitcoin. SPECULATION - logically it could happen, but it requires access to Wall St. And unless you were living in N. Korea, you know that the SEC said "no" to Bitcoin ETFs on Wall St. This makes it unlikely that this access will be gained in the future, since the issue the SEC had was lack of regulation over the Bitcoin market.

(4) The 2030 market cap is based on the number of bitcoin holders multiplied by the average held bitcoin value. SPECULATION - their future bitcoin value isn't based on any mathematical rationale.

(5) The cryptocurrency’s 2030 supply will be about 20 million. TRUE

(6)The 2030 price and user count will total $500,000 and 400 million, respectively. The price is determined by taking the $10 trillion market cap and dividing it by 20 million bitcoins, the fixed supply. IT's FUN TO DREAM.

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I hope this reality comes true, too. But right now there's too little evidence to make this speculation anything more than a pipe dream. Who's going to either regulate Bitcoin or convince the SEC that regulation isn't needed? Nobody.

Well i don't think that it could be possible, bitcoin couldn't reach half a million dollars by the year 2030 . It would be a very short time for bitcoin to go on that stage even if it become mainstream I guess . Maybe bitcoin bitcoin would have so many changes on its price and half a million dollars would take a long journey .

They're making a lot of silly assumptions.

"From 2013 to 2017, the network grew from 120,000 users to 6.5 million users, nearly a 54-fold gain. Such growth would produce 400 million users in 2030."

That's one of them. That reminds of the cartoon about infinite husbands based on future projection.

And I don't believe there will ever be a Bitcoin ETF.

+1 I am worried about this part of the community. Because of this we have pumps and dumps. Unrealistic expetations+ FUD people that think that we go to 0.

I dont think so, bitcoin will be a good price, but not 500k $ per btc...

bitcoin isnt for mobile small transaction based activities. Its a store of value. 5% of the world population because more mobile phones? Nah. Sry I want to believe but this is going to far. We cant expect an infinite exponential growth for 13 years to come. Everyone who thinks that will get burned eventually. Name 1 thing that you can compare with bitcoin that has a exponential growth for 13 years? Thats right : none. Anyway I believe in Bitcoin but 500 000 USD? Nah

I believe everyone will love this speculation. Read on this here : https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-hit-500000-2030-says-snapchats-first-investor

They are not just throwing blind balls but come with solid evidences to support their speculation.

Usually both positive and negative speculations will occur quicker than expected. We may speculate price levels some what accurately but not the time frame. So, time of 2030 may  shrink to 2025 too, what you think ?