Topic: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again - page 12. (Read 40357 times)

If that's a dead cat bounce it must be an undead cat  
Why was the recent high above the high in 08? Doesn't make sense...

Also if you plot the chart from an earlier period to today and not start at the short period of hyperbolic movement the bubble suddenly looks way less impressive, on the logarithmic chart not even like a bubble at all.




But lets screw trend predictions, they aren't that useful in the current state of the world economy anyway.
As for bitcoin i would say we have a 50/50 chance that we seriously test the longterm trend now. If popularity continues to decline for the next month this is even likely. But not for long the next hype cycle will be coming next year...

You could have stuck a fork in BofA years ago, if it weren't for the bailouts they've received.  I doubt bitcoin will get such tender loving care.

where is the recovery in the nasdaq? we have just seen a dead cat bounce before we see low triple digits in the next years.

But there is no correlation with bitcoin which is still in an uptrend. The nasdaq, however, is not in an uptrend any more.

http://imghaven.com/images/23856/ndx20110930.png

If you are talking about the nasdaq, then yes it recovered, there has been a upward trend since 2002 which continues today. In the case of bitcoin however the timescales are different, people like to compress price developments over decades to the 2 years of bitcoin which cannot really be done, except for some fundamental truths in market movements.

The Dotcom bubble recovered?  When did that happen?  I recall the vast majority of dotcoms either racing towards IPOs with dubious business plans and subsequently crashing, or not getting to the sacred IPO and burning up all their capital.

The dotcom bubble was replaced by another bubble created by ultra cheap debt: the housing bubble.  But the dotcom bubble itself burst and never recovered, save for a few online businesses that were successful even before the bubble.

Hey, Bank of America just instituted $5 debit card fees.

3) Profit.

Easy, you switch your strategy from trading direction to trading volatility.   We have a MASSIVE pennant hanging on the multi-month bitcoin chart, if this were a real, optionable stock I'd be looking into long straddle positions.

Unfortunately I can't do that with bitcoin, so I'll be sitting on the sidelines with my popcorn.  I have my suspicions which way the direction is going to move but I want them confirmed before I do anything.

Since I'm mostly a trader it doesn't matter to me if I miss a $10 one day rise (or $2 one day drop), I'm in this for the price movement.  It would be nice if we went bull rather than bear (my trading is hedged by mining), but I for one am more than fine either way.

I know that, personally, I've been looking for a store of value that isn't precious metals. That ship has definitely sailed. I'm also a pseudo-Libertarian nerd, so of course Bitcoin is a natural fit for me.

Seeing more and more tools trickle out that bring Bitcoin to the layperson, I do not believe its niche-dom will last long. I give it two years before Bitcoin is a household name. Not to say everyone will use them, but they will all know what it is.

Indeed. The dotcom bubble recovered eventually and the same will happen with Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's size we're simply looking at a much faster recovery in real time. It's not going to take years because Bitcoin time is faster, we're looking at months. I'm expecting a recovery soon, but within 6 months for sure.

Only thing that can really stop this is a blow to the fundamentals of Bitcoin, which are legality and technical reliability. As long as those are in good shape we will very, very likely see Bitcoin grow as both a store of value and a medium of exchange. And this will also mean that the price will eventually recover, big time.

On another note, I don't really think the last bubble was the biggest bubble yet. It was the biggest bubble so far, but it's only the first real hype wave. As long as the fundamentals stay strong we're bound to have a larger hype wave eventually. Bitcoin is still relatively unknown even though there has been coverage. It's not the same as "the dotcom bubble" because everyone knew about Internet companies at the time.

But the success of Bitcoin won't come by itself. It requires that people continue to build the infrastructure, and that it stays legal and the cryptography stays solid. It also requires that Bitcoiners start marketing it more heavily. If people don't know about it or how it can help them, it's not going to spread. This is why projects such as the Wall St. marketing project are actually really important.

Using this analogy, if bitcoin is taking the place of the internet and miners are the dotcoms, then many miners will likely quit at the 10% level. The internet itself did not die after the dotcom bubble. Bitcoin is too good an idea, like the internet, to die.

In the first Internet bubble, we ran Downside.com, which predicted, based on cash flow, which dot-coms would die, and when. We considered a company dead when the stock was down 90% from the peak. At that point, the stockholders are dead, even if the company lives on at some low level in zombie mode.

On that basis, Bitcoin is dead when it breaks through $3.

By the way, does "never ever ever reaching $20" = "Bitcoin is effectively dead, but just doesn't know it yet?"

Now why would anyone even bother to raise that necrothread?

That's utter nonsense. In June, based on charts, I predicted the price of bitcoin would be $200 by now, and... oh... I see what you mean.

Intuition... and Chodpaba's charts help confirm my intuition.

Yeah - but what to do now when the two main trends are in conflict?

Charts are great for helping determine whether a trend is still in progress.  That's their main use.  They are lagging indicators, but if used properly can be great ones for fine tuning your trades assuming a higher likelyhood of continued trading range, bull or bear trends.  So far charting has been 100% correct in confirming continuation of bitcoin trends (both bull and currently bear).

There are a few predictive indicators, but they don't go predictably enough to trade from all the time.

I don't use charts period. I'm of the technical analysis charts are BS school of thought. Those things are great for looking at history, but apparently suck for any predictions, since every time the price changes unpredictably, everyone just moves their projection lines, and in that case you may as well assume that it will just keep changing unpredictably.

Also, I meant that just from basic common person looking at it perspective, a Bitcoin dropping from $15 to $10, losing $5, looks much worse than a Bitcoin dropping from $5 to $3.33, losing only $1.6. To a layman, anyway (BTC losing another $5 now would truly suck, too)

...or go significantly lower.

The weekly gives the wrong impression before the week is out... Here's a daily since May's $5/btc including the 365 and 21 SMA. The last tick is expected to be light before midnight.

These charts don't tell me much about the future. The volumes match what one would expect given the price level ($volume / btc volume = $/btc price). The year trend line is interesting in that we've triple-bottomed and represents a powerful threshold. But your guess is as good as mine whether it will hold or bounce to new heights.

USD:

BTC: