Topic: Bitcoin will one day be superseded by a technically superior NuCoin. What then? - page 4. (Read 7135 times)

We will find out in our lifetimes. 

Very long, since ancient times indeed. But gold has qualities that are valued by most people throughout the world. Does bitcoin have that level of appeal, glamor and magnetism that would attract to it as many people even without being a legal tender?

Bitcoin is more than a computer technology.  It is a rapidly-growing network that guards a shared transactions ledger.  It can adapt as needed, and it obeys strict mathematical rules.  

The core bitcoin protocol is more "mathematical" than "computer technology."  Concepts from mathematics are deep and far-reaching.  For instance, the mathematics for X-ray computed tomography (CT) were discovered in 1917 by the Austrian mathematician Johann Radon.  We still use this today because it works.  The core bitcoin mathematics will be robust for the foreseeable future.  

Sure it's *possible* that someone breaks SHA256 and ECDSA, but it is also *possible* that someone finds a way to cheaply fuse lighter elements into gold.  I think both have the same probability: essentially nil.  


Confirmation times are not a problem, I think people misunderstand how bitcoin works.  Here in Vancouver, several brick-and-mortar businesses accept bitcoin payments via BitPay.  It is standard practice for the vendor to consider the invoice paid as soon as the transaction is picked up by the network (typically within a fraction of a second).  The only way to attempt a "double spend" at a brick-and-mortar is to have a custom "double spend" app for your phone.  And if you actually attempt to double spend, the network sees both transactions and it is obvious that you've double-spent and the invoice will not be considered paid.  You'll also look like a thief in front of everybody in the store.  If you "double spend" 3 minutes after leaving the store, your fraudulent transaction would not make it into a block.  

You can actually test this by creating raw transactions at brainwallet.org.  Create two different raw transactions using the same coins.  Send the second transaction 3 minutes after the first, and it will be the first transaction that makes it into a block.


This is highly-unlikely except over the long term.  But if it did happen, bitcoin would adopt the necessary changes.  There is great value in the blockchain; it will be protected.
 

Yeah , seems about right that bitcoin will be superseded , but not any time soon.
There are coins with a 30 second block time instead of the 600 seconds of Bitcoin , but they do not seem to obtain popularity.
Bitcoin is still growing and seems that it will be superseded , only long after its growth is over and it becomes a dominant currency.
Don't hold your breath waiting.


So ?
Many people join just to make a specific post on the forums and are aware of bitcoin and its workings before joining the forums.
This may be of concern if he was asking for you to trust him with your BTC or so.

I agree OP. Those claiming that current altcoins not gaining substantial tracking are missing the part that none of them are a radical improvement in any way.

Standards evolve, and when they do old standards depreciate. No idea when it will happen, but my guess is Bitcoin will slowly decrease in value as the NuCoin increases in popularity. I don't ever see it going away overnight, it will be just another technology shift.

Bitcoins first-to-market network effect certianly buys it a lot of time, and the longer its the defacto standard the more impressive the NuCoin will have to be.

Or its life may actually turn out to be very long.  Gold was around before the phrase "legal tender" had meaning.  How long has mankind used gold?

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But Bitcoin is not just a brand name, or a network of users; it is a specific computer technology.

It is hard to name a computer technology that has not become obsolete in a few years.  Punched cards, magtapes, floppies, CDs were all "universal" information interchange media that were quickly and completely superseded by better technologies,  Encryption standards are replaced every few years.  IPv4 is being replaced by IPv6, FTP by BitTorrent, and so on.  

Currently it takes over 5 minutes to confirm a Bitcoin transaction.  If a NuCoin transaction could be confirmed in 5 seconds, would it not become more attractive than Bitcoin?

So one must at least admit the possibility of Bitcoin being superseded by some other system in the medium term.  What would happen then?

Yes, but bitcoin is not legal tender unlike money in the monetary systems you described in your post, so its life may actually turn out to be very short. Why should a government which money system lasted for more than a century give in?

Aren't we still using 80s technology for bank wires?  Haven't we had "dollars" since 1792?

The lifecycle of each new credible monetary system is looooonnnngggg.  Congress passed the Gold Reserve Act on 30 January 1934, nationalizing all the US citizens' gold.  (The next day F. D. Roosevelt changed the value of the dollar from $20.67 to the troy ounce to $35 to the troy ounce.)  We lasted on this monetary system for 37.5 years!  It wasn't until August 15, 1971, that R. Nixon ended convertibility of the dollar to gold.  Our new "unbacked" dollar has lasted 42 more years, bringing us to today.  After excessive money printing and debt accumulation, there is now incredible pressure to adopt a new monetary system!

In 15 years, bitcoin will still be young.  If bitcoin grows to become a dominant currency, it will last for generations.

Bitcoin WILL become obsolete one day, like punched cards and floppy disks; whether it is next year or 15 years from now, I do not know.

Litecoin and other crypto-currencies are already being used as means of payment, and the existence or success of Bitcoin does not seem to hamper that; on the contrary they are learly riding on Bitcoin's success.


I don't see why, but in any case it does not answer the question.  WHEN Bitcoin is superseded by a NuCoin, how will Bitcoin owners swap them for NuCoins?

People are constantly making new cryptocurrencys but the only one that has come close to bitcoins are litecoins. It's unlikely that another cryptocurrency (which is what I assume you mean by something with the same properties) will arise to overthrow bitcoins as they were the first to really get huge and all of the big non-cryptocurrency entities and the media are all focused on them. But Bitcoin needs to first be a competitive form of internet commerce before a new currency could take its place.

Bitcoin cannot claim eternal divine perfection, so inevitably there will arise a "NuCoin" that has the same nice properties but is technically better in some respect -- and will therefore replace Bitcoin as  the preferred medium of payment for internet commerce.   

What will happen to the Bitcoin then? Owners of course would like to swap them for equal worth of NuCoins.  But who will agree to the swap?