BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect

fillippone

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on July 01, 2024, 08:32:34 PM

It appears that after the approval of the ETF, there are other people and organizations who are creating their own investment types that will take advantage of bitcoin's volatility hehehe. One of these new investment types is AMINA CoinDesk BTC Momentum Index or BTIAMINA. I am not certain, however, the method it was described in this article makes it appear that this is something similar to FTX's leveraged tokens heehehh. Has anyone traded leveraged tokens in FTX? It was a very headshaking experience.

While spot ETFs have dominated the headlines, other innovative indices and products are also being launched. Spot ETFs provide beta exposure to an asset, but what are the alternative ways to access bitcoin beyond beta?

Recently, AMINA Group and CoinDesk Indices launched the AMINA CoinDesk BTC Momentum Index (Ticker: BTIAMINA), which aims to provide dynamic exposure to bitcoin by shifting to cash (USD) when price trends are unfavorable.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-indices/2024/07/01/bitcoin-20-seeking-alpha/

These are actively managed indexes.
They are a tough sell.
Imagine you just convinced a boomer to put 1% of his portfolio on a Bitcoin tracker; good luck making him shift from a passive tracker to an actively managed (with higher fees) product.
Also, a crypto native wouldn't buy such a product.
So, there is a very small niche where to go and find your buyer for these products.

Uhochi

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I agree, a Bitcoin ETF approval could lead to a bigger spike than expected. Many investors are aware of the potential, but plenty of others still haven't caught wind of it.

Once the news breaks and advertising kicks in, more people will take notice. BlackRock's involvement is significant, and their marketing efforts could draw even more attention to Bitcoin's scarcity. Of course, a rejection would be disappointing, but either way, it'll be an exciting start to the year!

bbc.reporter

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It appears that after the approval of the ETF, there are other people and organizations who are creating their own investment types that will take advantage of bitcoin's volatility hehehe. One of these new investment types is AMINA CoinDesk BTC Momentum Index or BTIAMINA. I am not certain, however, the method it was described in this article makes it appear that this is something similar to FTX's leveraged tokens heehehh. Has anyone traded leveraged tokens in FTX? It was a very headshaking experience.

While spot ETFs have dominated the headlines, other innovative indices and products are also being launched. Spot ETFs provide beta exposure to an asset, but what are the alternative ways to access bitcoin beyond beta?

Recently, AMINA Group and CoinDesk Indices launched the AMINA CoinDesk BTC Momentum Index (Ticker: BTIAMINA), which aims to provide dynamic exposure to bitcoin by shifting to cash (USD) when price trends are unfavorable.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-indices/2024/07/01/bitcoin-20-seeking-alpha/

fillippone

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Weekly recap:

We had inflows only, if we exclude Tuesdays GBTC.

This is reassuring, wondering if the outtflows from GBTC have really stopped or it is actually a pause only.

The big picture looks reassuring as well:

Remember that slow and steady wins the race!

bbc.reporter

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Does everyone remember the news on the anticrypto CEO of Vanguard that retired? There were very smart people in the forum that argued that it was not a retirement. They speculated that he was being replaced by a more procrypto CEO hehehehe and it appears that it has recently occurred. Vanguard hired former Blackrock executive Salim Ramji as their new CEO. He was the executive who was in charge of of the department for Blackrock's spot ETF for bitcoin.

Vanguard Group Inc. named Salim Ramji as its next chief executive officer, tapping the BlackRock Inc. veteran to succeed Tim Buckley and become the first outsider to lead the firm famed for revolutionizing investing with the index fund.

Source https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-14/vanguard-appoints-blackrock-veteran-salim-ramji-as-next-ceo

cryptomaniac_xxx

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Quote from: fillippone on April 14, 2024, 11:18:54 AM

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

And so they did,

Quote

The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong has officially granted approval for several spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the region. The approved ETFs include ChinaAMC, Harvest, and Bosera HashKey Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, as listed on the SFC website.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-approves-spot-bitcoin-064416209.html

And trading begins on Monday April 30, unfortunately though, it is not offered to Mainland China. As obviously, we all know that the Chinese government is no longer Bitcoin friendly. But we will see how big it will be for Hongkong when it official opens at Monday, we will find out if it will have a huge impact on the price of Bitcoin or not.

Abiky

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Quote from: fillippone on April 23, 2024, 12:33:10 PM

I wouldn't be so worried about this.
Holding a large amount of bitcoins doesn't make you feel heard in the community. Bitcoin is not a PoS shitcoin.
There is no way that ETF issuers can influence bitcoin development because they hold a large stash of bitcoin.
Of course, they could pay to access the Bitcoin development team, but this would depend on their economic power, not the fact that they hold many bitcoins.

Of course not. Bitcoin may not be a PoS coin, but economic holders can have an impact over network consensus. Especially if they use their money to acquire a large portion of the hashrate. Firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck are filthy rich. What makes you think they won't buy companies with mining farms (or even make their own)? They can even pay for the development of Bitcoin Core and steer the project to their own direction. Even if the community decides what gets approved or rejected on BTC's codebase, that won't stop greedy corporations from getting what they want.

The idea has always been to encourage self-custody of BTC among individuals to prevent third-parties from monopolizing it. That's what governments want (especially the US government). They want institutional investment companies to buy all of the BTC so they can control it. People will be forced to comply with KYC just to get access to Bitcoin. Just because ETFs promise to "pump" market prices, doesn't mean it's good for the future of BTC. Hopefully, people will understand this before it's too late. Cheesy

fillippone

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Quote from: Abiky on April 19, 2024, 10:13:51 AM

Quote from: fillippone on April 14, 2024, 11:18:54 AM

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

Yes. Spot ETF approvals are starting to reach the world. It won't be long before most countries go all in Bitcoin. This will create a supply shock, effectively rising market prices over the long term. A win-win for both retail and institutional investors.

I hope these moves don't compromise Bitcoin's decentralization in the long run. I understand network consensus is completely independent from economic holders, but concentration of supply among a few brings inequality into the system. Imagine what influence corporate giants will have over BTC miners with their large holdings. I'm just speculating here. We can't predict the future, so lets hope for the best.

I wouldn't be so worried about this.
Holding a large amount of bitcoins doesn't make you feel heard in the community. Bitcoin is not a PoS shitcoin.
There is no way that ETF issuers can influence bitcoin development because they hold a large stash of bitcoin.
Of course, they could pay to access the Bitcoin development team, but this would depend on their economic power, not the fact that they hold many bitcoins.

Abiky

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Quote from: fillippone on April 14, 2024, 11:18:54 AM

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

Yes. Spot ETF approvals are starting to reach the world. It won't be long before most countries go all in Bitcoin. This will create a supply shock, effectively rising market prices over the long term. A win-win for both retail and institutional investors.

I hope these moves don't compromise Bitcoin's decentralization in the long run. I understand network consensus is completely independent from economic holders, but concentration of supply among a few brings inequality into the system. Imagine what influence corporate giants will have over BTC miners with their large holdings. I'm just speculating here. We can't predict the future, so lets hope for the best.

fillippone

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Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

GigaBit

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Volatility has a dip connection with Bitcoin. While this volatility may not be readily accepted by many, it is commonplace for those who understand the Bitcoin relationship. There is no specific reason why Bitcoin will rise or fall in value. The price of Bitcoin can increase or decrease due to any number of reasons such as business, economy, legislation. Those who are interested in investing in Bitcoin should not only be most excited about Bitcoin's upward momentum, but also be aware that any time the price of Bitcoin could take a massive dump. There has been no negative news in the crypto space in recent times but the crypto market has seen a major decline due to the financial issues. As an investor there is no option to be patient in this situation. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset where people's interest will continue to grow.

Agbamoni

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Quote from: fillippone on April 11, 2024, 11:52:50 AM

The next hot topic in the space is the Bitcoin ETF launch in Hong Kong in the coming weeks.
Given the sheer appetite for Bitcoin by Chinese investors, huge demand is expected.
I don't know actually how much demand has been going to be channeled by these instruments over there, but I read an analysis that it could be fuel toward 100k.

I agree! It's no longer a rumor anymore. This could be a big deal for Asia in general. $100 mark soon!

The involvement of institutions has convinced me that Bitcoin will be much better than what we see now. Hong Kong approval would be the first Asia continental ever cryptocurrency ETF approval. I heard some rumors about London and South Korea ETF approval.

More information source here on X

fillippone

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The next hot topic in the space is the Bitcoin ETF launch in Hong Kong in the coming weeks.
Given the sheer appetite for Bitcoin by Chinese investors, huge demand is expected.
I don't know actually how much demand has been going to be channeled by these instruments over there, but I read an analysis that it could be fuel toward 100k.

AVE5

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It has always been the nature of Investors to increase the value of their bitcoin holding once they've got to learn about some promise potentials ahead in the nearest. Maybe it could be some coats of excitements and greeds. Haha.
While the ETF approval is on expectations, a lot of Investors has already set up their places of relevance utilities 😆

fillippone

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Numbers go up in the ETF have unpondered consequences:

Bitcoin ETFs Are Starting to Compete With S&P 500, Says Michael Saylor

Quote

“We thought that maybe Bitcoin was a competitor to gold, but it has actually run up the leaderboard, and now it’s starting to nip at the heels of the S&P 500 Index ETFs,” MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said during an interview at the Madeira Bitcoin conference.

Maybe it's an overstatement, maybe not.
For sure, they have been competing with GOLD, as they have been sucking AUM from Gold's ETF in the past weeks.
Competing with SPX ETF might be premature, but as well, they are competing with stocks as a store of value.

Uhwuchukwu53

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Quote from: OgNasty on January 10, 2024, 12:10:35 PM

I think people are expecting a decision to be announced in about 4 hours. We’ll see. There are a lot of signs that approval is imminent so you could make the argument that the market already has it priced in. I’m not sold on it being an immediate positive for the price, but I think it’ll have a lasting bullish effect for a long time.

That's my thought over time but still have some doubt, I observed that bullish effect will take deep impact soon.

fillippone

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Numbers went up today: 10B in trading volume.
Absolutely bonkers for funds that have been launched less than two months ago:

For sure the excitement over the ATH played its part, but this is something bigger than expected.
Let's wait for the (in) flows number.

Troytech

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What ever pump bitcoin is having now is strictly because of the ETF approval as you said it has had quite the effect on bitcoin and bitcoin has never once broken it's cycle of pre halving dip, but the way it is going now we might not have any of that untill a new ATH or even quite after, ETF has caused quite the increased demand for bitcoin and most holders are taking their asset if the exchanges to self custodian making the available supply of bitcoin on exchanges even lower, if bitcoin is scare and the demand is high we well know what to expect.

STT

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If the price went down (consistently even after halvening) you will then have less miners but also less difficulty, the system does adjust so it should be ok as it has in the past. The jeopardy for miners is they are stuck with unprofitable programs of planned mining on hardware already paid for, Bitcoin blockchain itself is not subject to that loss but the people who would gain also risk losses which seems fair enough a scenario.

I wish I had carried on mining for years after it become non profitable because as we know now it was fine if you held on. That was an unknown and risky, I did mine onwards in that way a little bit but perhaps I should have been more determined, retrospective is a killer.

We had the ETF Jump and its ironic sell after, now its gained back more then the first gain and people hope for more but its the continual positive effect I would focus on here over these jumps. I hope that larger picture is true as we can pullback further from here but an underlying trend up would be powerful if repeated over 12 months after this news, it could be that big Im not sure yet.

fillippone

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I was finally able to get hold of the infamous Bank of America study that stated the 118x inflow multiplier to market capitalisation.

According to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, the current multiplier is way lower, but I get this number recalled almost daily.

Topic: BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect (Read 1311 times)