BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect

cryptomaniac_xxx

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Quote from: fillippone on April 14, 2024, 12:18:54 PM

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

And so they did,

Quote

The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong has officially granted approval for several spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the region. The approved ETFs include ChinaAMC, Harvest, and Bosera HashKey Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, as listed on the SFC website.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-approves-spot-bitcoin-064416209.html

And trading begins on Monday April 30, unfortunately though, it is not offered to Mainland China. As obviously, we all know that the Chinese government is no longer Bitcoin friendly. But we will see how big it will be for Hongkong when it official opens at Monday, we will find out if it will have a huge impact on the price of Bitcoin or not.

Abiky

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Quote from: fillippone on April 23, 2024, 01:33:10 PM

I wouldn't be so worried about this.
Holding a large amount of bitcoins doesn't make you feel heard in the community. Bitcoin is not a PoS shitcoin.
There is no way that ETF issuers can influence bitcoin development because they hold a large stash of bitcoin.
Of course, they could pay to access the Bitcoin development team, but this would depend on their economic power, not the fact that they hold many bitcoins.

Of course not. Bitcoin may not be a PoS coin, but economic holders can have an impact over network consensus. Especially if they use their money to acquire a large portion of the hashrate. Firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck are filthy rich. What makes you think they won't buy companies with mining farms (or even make their own)? They can even pay for the development of Bitcoin Core and steer the project to their own direction. Even if the community decides what gets approved or rejected on BTC's codebase, that won't stop greedy corporations from getting what they want.

The idea has always been to encourage self-custody of BTC among individuals to prevent third-parties from monopolizing it. That's what governments want (especially the US government). They want institutional investment companies to buy all of the BTC so they can control it. People will be forced to comply with KYC just to get access to Bitcoin. Just because ETFs promise to "pump" market prices, doesn't mean it's good for the future of BTC. Hopefully, people will understand this before it's too late. Cheesy

fillippone

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Quote from: Abiky on April 19, 2024, 11:13:51 AM

Quote from: fillippone on April 14, 2024, 12:18:54 PM

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

Yes. Spot ETF approvals are starting to reach the world. It won't be long before most countries go all in Bitcoin. This will create a supply shock, effectively rising market prices over the long term. A win-win for both retail and institutional investors.

I hope these moves don't compromise Bitcoin's decentralization in the long run. I understand network consensus is completely independent from economic holders, but concentration of supply among a few brings inequality into the system. Imagine what influence corporate giants will have over BTC miners with their large holdings. I'm just speculating here. We can't predict the future, so lets hope for the best.

I wouldn't be so worried about this.
Holding a large amount of bitcoins doesn't make you feel heard in the community. Bitcoin is not a PoS shitcoin.
There is no way that ETF issuers can influence bitcoin development because they hold a large stash of bitcoin.
Of course, they could pay to access the Bitcoin development team, but this would depend on their economic power, not the fact that they hold many bitcoins.

Abiky

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Quote from: fillippone on April 14, 2024, 12:18:54 PM

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

Yes. Spot ETF approvals are starting to reach the world. It won't be long before most countries go all in Bitcoin. This will create a supply shock, effectively rising market prices over the long term. A win-win for both retail and institutional investors.

I hope these moves don't compromise Bitcoin's decentralization in the long run. I understand network consensus is completely independent from economic holders, but concentration of supply among a few brings inequality into the system. Imagine what influence corporate giants will have over BTC miners with their large holdings. I'm just speculating here. We can't predict the future, so lets hope for the best.

fillippone

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Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

GigaBit

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Volatility has a dip connection with Bitcoin. While this volatility may not be readily accepted by many, it is commonplace for those who understand the Bitcoin relationship. There is no specific reason why Bitcoin will rise or fall in value. The price of Bitcoin can increase or decrease due to any number of reasons such as business, economy, legislation. Those who are interested in investing in Bitcoin should not only be most excited about Bitcoin's upward momentum, but also be aware that any time the price of Bitcoin could take a massive dump. There has been no negative news in the crypto space in recent times but the crypto market has seen a major decline due to the financial issues. As an investor there is no option to be patient in this situation. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset where people's interest will continue to grow.

Agbamoni

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Quote from: fillippone on April 11, 2024, 12:52:50 PM

The next hot topic in the space is the Bitcoin ETF launch in Hong Kong in the coming weeks.
Given the sheer appetite for Bitcoin by Chinese investors, huge demand is expected.
I don't know actually how much demand has been going to be channeled by these instruments over there, but I read an analysis that it could be fuel toward 100k.

I agree! It's no longer a rumor anymore. This could be a big deal for Asia in general. $100 mark soon!

The involvement of institutions has convinced me that Bitcoin will be much better than what we see now. Hong Kong approval would be the first Asia continental ever cryptocurrency ETF approval. I heard some rumors about London and South Korea ETF approval.

More information source here on X

fillippone

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The next hot topic in the space is the Bitcoin ETF launch in Hong Kong in the coming weeks.
Given the sheer appetite for Bitcoin by Chinese investors, huge demand is expected.
I don't know actually how much demand has been going to be channeled by these instruments over there, but I read an analysis that it could be fuel toward 100k.

AVE5

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It has always been the nature of Investors to increase the value of their bitcoin holding once they've got to learn about some promise potentials ahead in the nearest. Maybe it could be some coats of excitements and greeds. Haha.
While the ETF approval is on expectations, a lot of Investors has already set up their places of relevance utilities 😆

fillippone

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Numbers go up in the ETF have unpondered consequences:

Bitcoin ETFs Are Starting to Compete With S&P 500, Says Michael Saylor

Quote

“We thought that maybe Bitcoin was a competitor to gold, but it has actually run up the leaderboard, and now it’s starting to nip at the heels of the S&P 500 Index ETFs,” MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said during an interview at the Madeira Bitcoin conference.

Maybe it's an overstatement, maybe not.
For sure, they have been competing with GOLD, as they have been sucking AUM from Gold's ETF in the past weeks.
Competing with SPX ETF might be premature, but as well, they are competing with stocks as a store of value.

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Quote from: OgNasty on January 10, 2024, 01:10:35 PM

I think people are expecting a decision to be announced in about 4 hours. We’ll see. There are a lot of signs that approval is imminent so you could make the argument that the market already has it priced in. I’m not sold on it being an immediate positive for the price, but I think it’ll have a lasting bullish effect for a long time.

That's my thought over time but still have some doubt, I observed that bullish effect will take deep impact soon.

fillippone

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Numbers went up today: 10B in trading volume.
Absolutely bonkers for funds that have been launched less than two months ago:

For sure the excitement over the ATH played its part, but this is something bigger than expected.
Let's wait for the (in) flows number.

Troytech

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What ever pump bitcoin is having now is strictly because of the ETF approval as you said it has had quite the effect on bitcoin and bitcoin has never once broken it's cycle of pre halving dip, but the way it is going now we might not have any of that untill a new ATH or even quite after, ETF has caused quite the increased demand for bitcoin and most holders are taking their asset if the exchanges to self custodian making the available supply of bitcoin on exchanges even lower, if bitcoin is scare and the demand is high we well know what to expect.

STT

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If the price went down (consistently even after halvening) you will then have less miners but also less difficulty, the system does adjust so it should be ok as it has in the past. The jeopardy for miners is they are stuck with unprofitable programs of planned mining on hardware already paid for, Bitcoin blockchain itself is not subject to that loss but the people who would gain also risk losses which seems fair enough a scenario.

I wish I had carried on mining for years after it become non profitable because as we know now it was fine if you held on. That was an unknown and risky, I did mine onwards in that way a little bit but perhaps I should have been more determined, retrospective is a killer.

We had the ETF Jump and its ironic sell after, now its gained back more then the first gain and people hope for more but its the continual positive effect I would focus on here over these jumps. I hope that larger picture is true as we can pullback further from here but an underlying trend up would be powerful if repeated over 12 months after this news, it could be that big Im not sure yet.

fillippone

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I was finally able to get hold of the infamous Bank of America study that stated the 118x inflow multiplier to market capitalisation.

According to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, the current multiplier is way lower, but I get this number recalled almost daily.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: Abiky on February 12, 2024, 08:46:47 AM

Quote from: wiss19 on February 09, 2024, 04:08:53 AM

I would say "mining becomes less profitable" was a thought before every halving, but the reality is that if the price of bitcoin goes up, then mining it still stays profitable. So, if you mine 1 bitcoin per day at 40k dollars per bitcoin, and if you mine 0.5 bitcoins per day when it is 100k, you are making more money with the second one, while you mine less bitcoins.

This is why after every halving the price usually goes up, to make sure that miners keep going strong and protect the integrity of blockchain. I am not saying blackrock made a great decision, nor will they just make a mistake, they are just diversifying their portfolio and if people are fine with every single stock they get into, they should be fine with this one as well, not riskier than some other investments.

Only IF the prices go up over time. But what if market prices go down and stay that way for a prolonged period of time? Then BTC mining will become less profitable than what it used to be. History has shown us that BTC's market prices increase after each halving. I'm hopeful the upcoming halving will have the same effect on market price. This one will be even bigger than before because of the spot ETFs approval by the SEC.

Maybe BTC is bound to go to $100k soon? It would be unwise to buy BTC during the bull season. The moment is now to accumulate as much BTC before it "explodes". As long as you don't go crazy putting all of your life savings into the cryptocurrency, there should be nothing to worry about. Just my thoughts Grin

ETF or not it wont matter on which this market is still that unpredictable, it is really just that this moment we do have these institutions are really that getting involved or simply institutional funds are flowing into.
We cant really tell that the recent surge of increasing prices is the result of it or really just that still that ordinary day in crypto on which this has been that typical or standard.
Some saying that this is the result of ETF approval but we cant be sure, come to think that we are already heading on upcoming Bitcoin halving event on which it is really just that having those positive
sentiments in regarding about those price potential movement.

Now that we are heading on Bitcoin halving event then we are already that near on that so called BULL RUN on which all of people here on this space had been anticipating or really that expecting.
Jumping prices would really be just that next in line. We cant really just know on whats the exact date for this one. This is why speculations would really be flying or floating around.

Abiky

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Quote from: wiss19 on February 09, 2024, 04:08:53 AM

I would say "mining becomes less profitable" was a thought before every halving, but the reality is that if the price of bitcoin goes up, then mining it still stays profitable. So, if you mine 1 bitcoin per day at 40k dollars per bitcoin, and if you mine 0.5 bitcoins per day when it is 100k, you are making more money with the second one, while you mine less bitcoins.

This is why after every halving the price usually goes up, to make sure that miners keep going strong and protect the integrity of blockchain. I am not saying blackrock made a great decision, nor will they just make a mistake, they are just diversifying their portfolio and if people are fine with every single stock they get into, they should be fine with this one as well, not riskier than some other investments.

Only IF the prices go up over time. But what if market prices go down and stay that way for a prolonged period of time? Then BTC mining will become less profitable than what it used to be. History has shown us that BTC's market prices increase after each halving. I'm hopeful the upcoming halving will have the same effect on market price. This one will be even bigger than before because of the spot ETFs approval by the SEC.

Maybe BTC is bound to go to $100k soon? It would be unwise to buy BTC during the bull season. The moment is now to accumulate as much BTC before it "explodes". As long as you don't go crazy putting all of your life savings into the cryptocurrency, there should be nothing to worry about. Just my thoughts Grin

wiss19

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Quote from: Lucius on February 05, 2024, 07:40:48 AM

Quote from: Abiky on February 02, 2024, 09:21:28 PM

BlackRock and similar institutions have a lot of money to do whatever they want.

They have their clients' money that they can't just throw around - and all those trillions of $ they manage were never meant to end up in Bitcoin as some imagined. Especially not in BTC mining, which will become less and less profitable, considering that after the next halving, only about 450 BTC will be mined per day, which is literally just dust compared to the 19.6 million BTC that are already in circulation.

In addition, in less than 10 years, 99% of all coins will be mined, and I believe that even before that, many miners will move to some new, more profitable projects.

I would say "mining becomes less profitable" was a thought before every halving, but the reality is that if the price of bitcoin goes up, then mining it still stays profitable. So, if you mine 1 bitcoin per day at 40k dollars per bitcoin, and if you mine 0.5 bitcoins per day when it is 100k, you are making more money with the second one, while you mine less bitcoins.

This is why after every halving the price usually goes up, to make sure that miners keep going strong and protect the integrity of blockchain. I am not saying blackrock made a great decision, nor will they just make a mistake, they are just diversifying their portfolio and if people are fine with every single stock they get into, they should be fine with this one as well, not riskier than some other investments.

Abiky

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Quote from: Lucius on February 05, 2024, 07:40:48 AM

They have their clients' money that they can't just throw around - and all those trillions of $ they manage were never meant to end up in Bitcoin as some imagined. Especially not in BTC mining, which will become less and less profitable, considering that after the next halving, only about 450 BTC will be mined per day, which is literally just dust compared to the 19.6 million BTC that are already in circulation.

In addition, in less than 10 years, 99% of all coins will be mined, and I believe that even before that, many miners will move to some new, more profitable projects.

Mining will only become less profitable over time if market prices decline or remain as is. But it's very unlikely this will happen, especially when demand is rising at a very fast pace. When there's limited supply of coins and high demand, prices should go all the way to the moon. It will become more difficult to "attack" (or control) Bitcoin with 51% of the hashrate since costs of doing so will rise over time. What BlackRock and similar entities can do is accumulate a large portion of the supply. But they will never (hopefully) be able to control the network itself.

If things get tough, developers can simply increase the supply or agree with miners to censor/block institutional investment companies from using their BTC. It all comes down to consensus. No one knows what will happen in the future, so lets hope for the best. Cheesy

Jating

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Quote from: Lanatsa on January 31, 2024, 08:19:39 AM

Quote from: Jating on January 31, 2024, 04:56:22 AM

Quote from: 1miau on January 02, 2024, 06:20:06 PM

Discussions around Bitcoin’s ETF approval have been intensified for a long time now and most likely, we will get positive news about it in early January any day now. Yaay.

In case of a positive outcome, a Bitcoin ETF approval will possibly result in a much bigger spike than many people are expecting, in my opinion.

It could be, "buy the rumor sell the news", and probably this is what happened in the market because as soon the the approval was finalized, price did spike. However, those speculators who says that we will have positive outcome may sell after the news, leading to a temporary price decline.

I'm also hearing in defense of the price dump to $39k, that "ETF Approval Priced In", but I have to disagree. The positive impact on the price has already occurred leading up to the decision? As much as this market is already huge, but there could still be some manipulation from whales and perhaps that what we see as well.

Price movements includes a lot of factors, pre or after approval. Just like what we have seen, we are slowly gaining again, it might have been due to this news again as investors expectations have matured. Or at the very least, bitcoin market as we known is volatile, and short-term price fluctuations (dumping after the approval), should be considered in the context of the broader market trends and dynamics.

Definitely on that way or the thing happened recently on which it did turn out on buy the rumor sell the news. For those who do get in line with this sentiment then they did make out those good decisions as the market did really make out such movement on which it did really cause up that negative into those who do make out those long positions considering that ETF is going to be approved out. High chances we do know on which lots had been anticipating for the price to be going up but we've seen the different thing on which did end up on the other side of things on which to those who had been able to benefit out
on counteracting on the things that supposed to happen. This is why it would really be that best that you should really know on how to ride on yourself with the waves.

Sentiments and fundamentals could really be that decieving sometimes on which it might look that positive but the market turns out to be on negative state and we've been able to
see it recently.

Sentiments maybe, but I think if we will just stick to the fundamentals, then we might see what is really going from the background and as I investors we should learn how to read between the lines, from FOMO to market manipulation and buy the rumor sell the news. But right now, since the announcement, no big movement but at least the price has gone from the dump of $39k to $42k-$43k at the start of this month.

So not expect a big jump, maybe we can see the price going on another sideways. Of course, huge money is going to flow into the market. This institutions client are big, worth billions of dollars combine and so it's a big possibility that the ecosystem will thrive in the long run or at least we should observed right after the block halving this April.

Topic: BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect (Read 1106 times)