Topic: BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect - page 5. (Read 1311 times)

There might be another delay. The SEC has issued additional comments on pending applicants' for S-1s and according to Perianne Boring, this might be a delay signal.

Also, if there is a delay, January 10 will be the last of Ark Invest's schedule for application. If it is not approved by uncle Gary, this will be the first rejection from all of the applications. This might cause the market much volatility this month hehehe.



In an unexpected turn of events, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued additional comments on pending applicants’ form S-1s as part of the spot Bitcoin ETF applications. This came amid high hopes of an approval announcement anytime before the January 10, 2024 deadline.

According to Perianne Boring, the President and founder of the Chamber of Digital Commerce, the latest development is a delay signal from the agency.

Source https://coingape.com/us-sec-issues-comments-on-bitcoin-etf-form-s-1s-approval-to-get-delayed/

An ETF would pave the way for much more money to come into Bitcoin, so I expect a steady flow of money into Bitcoin after ETF approval. Some investors will maybe wait a bit until investing money in Bitcoin ETF's but long-term more people will join.
And maybe it'll help Bitcoin to become less volatile.

Even if it's delayed (and a delay is unlikely), an ETF will be approved sooner or later. Possibly BlackRock and Co. have already purchased some nice BTC before the recent price increase. 

What is clear and I understand about the bitcoin ETF is that;

If bitcoin ETF gets approved - Bitcoin will be bullish as a result of the approval by SEC but not sure how long it will stay like that. Maybe we going to experience a double bullish trend, one from the approval and the second from the bull run market expected to take place.

If bitcoin ETF gets rejected- Bitcoin will eventually experience a decline but will get back to its bullish form after a short term because the market is currently on a bullish trajectory.

i laugh when they say gensler is anti-bitcoin
he spent a few years at MIT teaching students about bitcoin

he isnt anti-bitcoin.. he is anti losing his job if he gets things wrong and causes boiler room scam operations to be accepted as registered services

Just landed on this thread.
I don't know why i missed this (any other relevant ETF-related thread around?)

The Matrixport report is just rubbish and pure play speculation.
On the very same day they issued a different report claiming there would have been a price jump to 50K due to ETF approval.
Rubbish.
Like the fake news a few weeks ago, everyone is trying to squeeze extra profit from this process. And I cannot blame them.

Sweet! and yes exactly. It may be different from gold's run but we see where it is all starting and we've got the idea on how it has been all over these years. There could be the different result prior to Bitcoin ETF's approval but the spirit is totally different and the excitement was there.
Like this crash that has happened, we now have an idea on how these big players want to take all of those Bitcoins that have been sold by people who panicked with simple news of speculated rejection by SEC. Now the thing for everybody is, how we're going to bear this feeling while we're waiting for the right time. Don't join the bandwagon of panic sellers, everyone so HODL.

Here's the link to the Matrixport's Executive Summary:
https://www.matrixport.com/institutions/research/matrix-on-target/813?utm_source=BenchmarkEmail&utm_campaign=MoT_General&utm_medium=email

Essentially all they're saying is that the reasons for ETFs not getting the approval is Gensler still not liking crypto too much and that The current five-person voting Commissioners leadership is dominated by Democrats, who, generally speaking, are more critical of crypto.
This is absolutely nothing new and hardly any breaking news. If this is what caused a drop to $41k, it only shows how fragile the market is right now.

Seriously the expectations around this ETF of a thing is definitely getting out of hand there are people that think like if it doesn’t get approved the market will face a heavy crash. This ETF saga is even turning to something that the whales are even using to manipulate the market this days. Either they give fake news about it getting approved or same about it getting rejected. The ETF isn’t going to change the adoption rate of bitcoin and neither it’s price increase but will just be a catalyst to increase the pace of both been done. Hodl on to the bag till you see the real bull run or set a price tag and then take profit when that target is reached.

In addition, I've found a nice graphic few days ago, comparing Gold's ETF launch and where Bitcoin is right now:


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18w2r2j/gold_vs_bitcoin_etf_approval/

Of course, Charts can be drawn in many ways and in 2008 we had a big financial crisis, where Gold was a safe haven, so maybe overall situation is a bit different but we can also argue how much scarcer Bitcoin is, compared even to a hard asset like Gold.
After all, we have arguments in favor and against such a Bitcoin price movement but it's not impossible at all. 

It is what I am seeing now, everyone is expecting a lot with these ETFs and they're all thinking the same that it is going to exceed our expectations. That's how it is looking like based on my observations and that's totally fine, something that didn't happened globally although there have been some ETFs already in some parts of the world but they weren't even made a huge name at all. If you just want to be plain on this event, that's okay because the chance of getting a rejection is still there. Other than that, it's okay to expect a lot but it's not with the ETF but with the upcoming halving and that's where our assurance is built.

you can actually calculate the ceiling by taking the hashrate. using it against the current generation asics to calculate how many asics are needed to perform that hashrate. calculate the total hardware cost and divide it down by 2 years and coin reward (/105000blocks /6.25) then taking the most expensive electric average $0.50 and calculate the hourly electric cost for those asics. and divide that by blocks per hour and coin reward (/6/6.25)
and that will give you the planet ceiling cost of mining
in 2021 is was $75k. and IF everyone calculated it and knew it, everyone would have been selling before $70k and some starting even lower than they did which would have caused the market to tap out below the number it did reach of $70k..
its the influencers that shouted 2021 will see $100k that wanted people to still buy even upto $70k so that they had someone to sell to. and thats their game

so if this year(ending december 2023) was $140k ceiling and you see influencers shouting $500k $1m .. understand they just want people to continue fomo buying even at $130k+ so that the influencers can sell around the $140k mark
(its not an original game, wall street influencers done it all the time n fiat investments that had a hard cap of stock valuation which wall street wanted to inflate to extreme numbers above it)

so if you knew even on the most expensive place on the planet everyone can mine for less than $145k and sell for profit.. how many people would want to market buy.. once you realise the ceiling and the market dynamics of buying/selling pressure you too can play the game against the players

Of course it can. I've seen some pretty good explanations of why and the main reason was: because this is a completely different market than it was in 2017 and 2021.
In 2017 there wasn't even a futures ETF yet and no institutional interest in bitcoin. Many people were still calling bitcoin a scam and there was an overwhelming majority of traditional analysts who either thought that it's a ponzi scheme, or a bubble.

In 2021 there was some institutional money flowing in, but the market was really unstable due to covid lockdown crash of 2020, followed by stimulus in the US. Then there was Musk pumping and dumping and China banning mining all in the same year.

This year we're watching a more mature market, a lot more mainstream interest, more political debates, US presidential candidates talking about it, Argentina supporting it and the biggest asset managers in the world applying for spot ETFs. The fact that it did not make a new ATH in the halving year is like saying that you've never been in a car accident. It doesn't mean you're not going to.

A good example of how these predictions based on past performance work is the bitcoin's price action in 2022. Bitcoin used to find support above previous ATH levels when it came down from a new ATH, but this time we crashed below 20k thanks to SBF. Maybe this time we'll go to 100k thanks to ETF

Spikes are always a possibility, but how many people will capitalize on that? How many people sold at $69K 2 years ago? Almost everyone didn't, because people set a price target for themselves that was too high - $100k, $250k, etc. They listened to the likes of Saylor who hyped those ranges and instead missed out on a great deal, espcially if they bought back in the bear market.

the expectation is that the last few cycles has shown patterns that the halving years price does not exceed the previous ATH
and its a year after the halving that a new ATH occurs

however ETF approval can accelerate the rise above previous ATH sooner..
however there is still real world market dynamics. such as if the least efficient mining cost is say $140k meaning everyone on the planet can mine for less(EG japan, hawaii, pacific islands have highest costs), then there is a natural tapering off of willingness to buy coin at a premium if everyone can mine for less. which means even in complete FOMO pumps there is still a ceiling to how much people would pay.

in short those shouting $1m by 2024, $500k by 2024 are stretching things far far far above the ceiling

Yeah I would agree that bitcoin is really going to jump once it's officially announced that bitcoin ETF's are going to get approved by the SEC.  There's some massive funds companies who will be entering the space, and with all the clients and funds they have to be able to add to these ETFs, it's going to be massive.  They aren't going to create them not to use them.  So buy as much btc as you possibly can now.

I do not think that this rumor about ETF rejection is the reason of the Bitcoin price dump.  It is more on people cashing out to replenish their pocket after the holiday spending.  If the drop is caused by the rumor then why is it that it recovers easily to $42k after dumping to $40k?  If it is the rumors effect, it should stay on that price level or even drop down to the sub $40k level.

If ever Bitcoin ETF is approved, it will possibly synergize with the coming halving giving an overwhelming price increase of Bitcoin in the market.

Just to add on to your points, there is possibility of price increase if ETF is approved which is the market sentiment but people still seems to not learnt from the past mistake as just few speculations making rounds in social media about possible ETF rejection and we have already seen some dump in Bitcoin price I know it's temporary but still it's not a good sign that people are still paying heeds to fuds which shouldn't be the case.

Even I want ETF to get approved but regardless it should have any long lasting affect either ways.

SEC approval of bitcoin etf might be a trigger for bitcoin to jump further in 2024, seeing that quite a lot of people are optimistic about it and pinning their hopes on it. maybe if the bitcoin etf is accepted by the SEC, it will be followed by many countries and make the price of bitcoin increase significantly, which is what many bitcoin holders want.

i personally don't really have high hopes for the bitcoin etf approval, because you know that having too much hope in something is not good, but i hope that the bitcoin etf approval can get positive results because it could be a good start for bitcoin this year and in the future.

You are right indeed, and like it's commonly said that what ever goes around, comes around as well, and that whatever has profit potentials, also have with it loss potentials as well.

In the ending of your post @op, you talked about what the possible rejection of the bitcoin spot ETF could cause to bitcoin and the crypto market in general, and I believe we saw an example of that today.

Matrixport came out with a report today stating or predicting rather, that the ETF won't be approved on January 10th as many people are anticipating, and the price of bitcoin plummeted and lost about 8% of its yesternight stroke early hours of today.

This goes to show that, if the ETF is later not approved on the 10th, then we all should make sure to reserve funds to buy bitcoin a very cheaper rates compared to its current price.

 I definitely agree with you Op, We might see Bitcoin do crazy in the price and perform more than our expectations because I believe there are a lot of people waiting on the sideline for the ETF to approved before they will buy.

Generally, It will be good for the price of Bitcoin because of that institutional funds that will be melting into Bitcoin and thus bringing more liquidity into the crypto space.

Bitcoin got a flash crash today over the rumors about the possibility of Bitcoin ETFs not going to get approved on January 10th and may be shifted to March 2023. And on the hand, I heard BlackRock started Buying Bitcoin today over their plan to buy Bitcoin this January and Bitcoin got about $5k drop in the price, I don't know which one that got the market bleeding.