Topic: Bitcoin’s Slide Below $40K Amid FTX Liquidation and ETF Turmoil (Read 346 times)

I think what scared off most people when we dipped below $40K was the Ftx selling and they didn’t know how much more they would sell and it was also the constant GBTC selling of $500M daily.

Ever since this number declined bitcoins price stopped declining and traded sideways at first and then it started to appreciate.

Now we got almost $500M in positive flows and I expect the $50K area to get tested again this week as long as stock market is booming.

I agree, everyone will experience it for the first time, but some can anticipate it well, but some can't, and that's common among novice investors, but gradually everyone can control themselves due to increased experience and knowledge from the information received.Indeed, panic is a bad action, but sometimes it cannot be controlled unless you continue to anticipate it. Always continue to learn and expand your knowledge.

It's cyclical for newbies investors and then they become the experience one and then new investors come back need to learn not to panic when prices goes down but to remain vigilant and hold on their bitcoin, simply as that.


We have recovered already as you can see with the price going to $43k. And who knows, we still at the first week of February and we might test $45k again and retain and have the momentum to end the year at $50k.

Yes, experienced investors will take advantage of it, while others will panic and sell at a loss. When selling pressure increases, prices will be corrected and this happens because purchasing power that is not balanced with selling pressure. Grayscale was the mastermind behind the correction, but today we can see bitcoin have recover above $43k.

Over time, the price of bitcoin will recover to its original position. Right now I can expect $45k to be tested and broken this February, so I wouldn't worry too much about that short term volatility. If you have a spare budget, start buying and accumulate, it will get you more returns in the long term.

something that usually happens in bitcoin, and I agree with what you say. That is the kind of movement that has been favored for bitcoin, looking for loopholes to get what he wants as best as possible. Everything will return to its original state, and this is a momentary and common panic.that usually occurs and always makes smart people take advantage of it. CMIIW

lol I'm not sure why some of the posters here are questioning whether FTX dumped a bunch of Grayscale. That did happen. It's been all over the bitcoin related news the past couple weeks. FTX liquidated all their Grayscale shares once the ETFs got approved, presumably to take advantage of the closing of the NAV in that fund. Last I read they had sold just over $1 billion from that ETF. That's money that directly left the market, all from FTX via Grayscale.

Of course there has been a lot more Grayscale selling besides that. Some if it surely is people moving to cheaper ETFs, but some of it is people leaving the market (at least for now). I read that there was several billions dollars of Grayscale buying the past few months that was expected to be people doing an arbitrage trades planning to sell with the closed NAV discount once the ETFs were approved. So a lot of the selling in addition to FTX has been arbitrage traders getting out of the market.

Anyway, even with all the money flowing out of Bitcoin from Grayscale, the ETFs in general have been net positive, and it is expected that the Grayscale selling, at least the selling that is actually leaving the market and not just moving to other bitcoin ETFs, should be drying up at this point. So we're going to start seeing the net inflows of money into bitcoin ETFs go up a lot more with the selling finishing up. And of course this will effect the price very positively as billions of dollars of bitcoin get sucked up into the ETFs in the coming weeks.

And it just shows how volatile the market is, it's really hard to predict until it really happened. Just like what we witnessed, we says that it will go up to as high as $50k with the approval and it almost did jump to that price. But we forget that after hitting it, what will happened? And now it's being answered, the market will correct or at least when the news has been sold, someone from behind take advantage of the situation, sold and make a lot of money from it. And so the real catalyst will be the block halving, after-all, we have seen it's effects, the incoming bull run. So maybe it's good to have this ETF at the side, to just become a factor that will help the bull for this year.

And bitcoin slides back above 40k, amid.. no idea what happened to be fair. We should stop connecting bitcoin price to anything other than "people sold so it went down" and "people bought so it went up", that is really it, the worst thing possible for bitcoin could happen, and people could still buy, and the best thing possible for bitcoin could happen and people could sell.

The biggest example I give about this is ETH turning into PoS, that was something that people waited for many many years, everyone was excited to see that change, and when it happened it was a bear period and nobody wanted to be the one who bought it, so price did not move much at all. So if it's a bull period, it will go up no matter what news comes out, and if it's bear, it will go down no matter what.

Each time there always a sudden change observed in the bitcoin market price, all we say is to attributes that incident to any economic activities to be responsible for that, if the market does not fall now, how will it rise when it's time closer to halving and after the halving, there are many things to consider as factors that determine or affect the market price of bitcoin a d we don't have to be more specific on a single entity for that leaving others behind.

Gah!  I've been saying much the same thing for years now--always too damn broke to build up a sizeable stake in bitcoin and all this time later I'm the poorer for not having done so.  Bitcoin is back above $40k as I'm writing this, and I expected it to bounce back relatively quickly even though I wasn't sure of why it dipped so low in the first place.  To my eyes it's been in an upward trend, and nothing keeps going straight up.  In particular, bitcoin doesn't tend to go up in a straight line for long at all without these dizzying fallbacks--that's something newcomers ought to learn as quick as they can so as not to get scared into selling.

Assuming that's true (and I've no reason to doubt it), why did the GBTC buyers buy shares in the first place if Grayscale's fees and reputation were the reason they sold?  Surely they'd have known prior to buying, no?

Anyone who'd be terrified of bitcoin dropping to $38k after this last bull run probably hasn't had much experience with bitcoin's historical price movements, and they're likely to have invested money they're going to need a month from now and panicked.  That happens every time bitcoin drops like a roller-coaster from its peak height.

I agree, it doesn't look like this down will go on for too long. I am not sure if it will be just a few days or more, but I am sure that it will not be an issue for a long time, so we are going to see the situation get better eventually. I believe that the best thing to do at this moment would be just making sure that we know what we are doing and the best way to get that working would be making sure that life is not all that confusing.

Maybe it may take a few days, maybe it will take a few weeks, do not hesitate, do not wonder, do not fear, just let it be and eventually it will go back up. I doubt ANYONE in the world doubts that it will go back beyond 40k, and I am sure that people even think it will be beyond 50k as well.

How come you haven't heard of this? This is all over the news, from crypto publications like CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, and others to mainstream news like Reuters, Bloomberg, Nasdaq, and the rest. The news that the FTX estate has dumped almost a billion dollars of GBTC has been considered as the primary reason for the price fall. I don't think they're all spreading fake news.


FTX estate selling about $1 Billion of Grayscale's ETF must have largely contributed to this selling pressure as well. The FTX estate is a huge GBTC holder itself.

I think it is best to leave the discussion about ETF and liquidating GBTC to the topics related to them, because we are here talking about speculation, and in those topics we are talking about facts, and I do not see the recent decline as dangerous, as we are now still above the $38,000 level and we have practically only touched the bottom of up level.

If traders become terrified of $38,000, I think we should wait and see whether we will be at $33,000 or will we return to $28,000 (less likely).

The reason is simple - after the price goes up very fast, it almost always goes down. We had a big rally from $35k to $48k. It was unrealistic to expect for Bitcoin to grow even more and more, because this is not the early days when Bitcoin could just double in price every couple of weeks. Expect more of this pattern in the future - when the candle is vertical, it will always correct.

In relation with FTX liquidation, let's say that it's for real that they've got some tons of BTC that managed to dump but isn't it that they've filed for bankruptcy last year? Aside from these big institutions liquidating GBTC, the retailers are just following their moves and going with the flow so the pressure has even got stronger with that. I am logically thinking about for bitcoin to go up, it has to go down and all of these actions that they've been doing to the market is appropriate and it won't matter anymore when we're done with the halving.

And that's very likely in the short term. Those that are long term holders, don't have to be worried with these temporary dumps.

What is happening in the Bitcoin market is not what many wouldn't have expected, and in a situation like this, people often attribute one thing or the other to it. However, I will have to zero my mind on the FTX liquidation link for now due to its unpopularity and because in the normal market where something like what we see with Bitcoin these days is not happening, it will not hold any water but analysts often like to link too many reasons to a situation in whose reason for buying or selling can be so unnecessary.

I believe Grayscale liquidation for their ETF kickoff is one of the main issues of Bitcoin now, and this transaction which caused the liquidation of BTC for alternative channelling is gradually causing some sell-off in the market and the recent market sentiment is another reason. Investors now see the market as bearish so they are hesitant to add money but a few are removing the money still (increased supply).

What do you expect in such a situation? And the more support levels Bitcoin breaks, the more it will fall.

I thought these types of topics would get created soon enough, once the $40K level broke, so I made a topic prior to this to try and get ahead of the speculation. So far, everything looks completely normal:

• The 0.618 fib retracement level ($48.5K) has been the target for a retracement since the $15.5K low (identical to 2016 and 2020).
• The ETF launch was always expected to be a "sell the news event", as the rumour has been bought up since October (over speculation).
• The Weekly candle ended with the longest bearish wick since June 2019, worse than anything in 2021/2022 (long-term sell signal).

Factoring all of these key points together, is it that surprising that price has dumped -20% and broken support? Price reached it's long-term dead cat bounce target, the launch was a sell event and then the Week ended aweful. Personally, I only find the speed of this breakdown surprising, I was expecting a little more resilience from the bulls around $42K level, but alas they were a complete no show.

Of course, the natural thing to occur now is attribute news events to the current dump or correction, as opposed to year-long upside targets being met, or otherwise 3 month up-trends being broken, which is clearly causing the sell-off. We all know that bearish news such as FTX wouldn't have any negative effect on price when in a bull market, similar to how bullish news doesn't effect price in a bear market.

To say that everyone was heavily warned prior to the ETF launch that this was a likelihood would be a massive understatement. Speculators simply got carried away with a 3-month "UP ONLY" trend and forget what a correct or trend reversal looks like. If you were one of those people, then it's best to wake up and smell the coffee. Nothing ever goes up in a straight line forever.

One institution sells and another buys and that's why investors like Bitcoin because Bitcoin investors are chasing big payouts. I think this is just a moment.

BTC will be fine in the next few days.

Lol that's not true at all, as the data says otherwise. There are still like $200+ million of inflows through other bitcoin ETFs, it's just that it was easily obliterated by the outflows through GBTC (and now with FTX pushing the outflows harder).

I read this yesterday:


And the price of bitcoin dip further.

The buying sentiment that people have for bitcoin ETF has also been over after it was approved on the 10th of January. It is about buying the rumor and selling the profit now.