Bitcoin's Stock to flow model seems accurate ! - page 2.

exstasie

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Quote from: Thavash on August 07, 2020, 01:43:37 PM

Whats your view , does this prove that $100k and later on $1M are feasible ?

Proof? No.

Is it an interesting theory with some merit? Yes.

Quote from: jossiel on August 07, 2020, 06:37:24 PM

$100k is high yet feasible but $1M, forget it for now.

Why? It's just a measly 10x above $100K.

Never underestimate the craziness of a bubble. Years from now, I honestly think 2017 may turn out to be on the tame end of Bitcoin's historical bubbles.

Time will tell, but I think most people are still greatly underestimating Bitcoin's potential. Even the bulls.

slaman29

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Also to OP, correction, the model you are talking about wasn't made or found by a few guys. It is using some examples from existing commodity, and then as filippone above says, it was just tracked on data points from before 2012. And made by one guy on Twitter called PlanB.

So far accurate does not mean will be accurate:)

fillippone

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Quote from: cryptomaniac_xxx on August 08, 2020, 02:05:40 AM

Quote from: btc_angela on August 08, 2020, 01:27:20 AM

Yes, currently it really looks accurate, but it is just another prediction model, bitcoin market is very young, we really don't know if this is going to hold true in the coming years.

True, you can use any prediction model I reckon and will still get a 'fairly' good price. I wouldn't say it's a flaw, but bitcoin's market can easily be calibrate because we don't have enough data and with limited data, you can play around with it depending on how you pivot to fit your narrative. So S2F model will fit for now, until it didn't as some point in time.

I really suggest you to read my thread about S2F model. It also assess your point: S2F model calibrated only on pointS before 2012, meaning only points before the first halving, gives pretty “accurate” projection for today prices.

Of course you cannot expect the model to be accurate in two-three halving times: multimillion price prediction means either the model or the US Dollar is going to break.

cryptomaniac_xxx

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Quote from: btc_angela on August 08, 2020, 01:27:20 AM

Yes, currently it really looks accurate, but it is just another prediction model, bitcoin market is very young, we really don't know if this is going to hold true in the coming years.

True, you can use any prediction model I reckon and will still get a 'fairly' good price. I wouldn't say it's a flaw, but bitcoin's market can easily be calibrate because we don't have enough data and with limited data, you can play around with it depending on how you pivot to fit your narrative. So S2F model will fit for now, until it didn't as some point in time.

btc_angela

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There's so much noise lately about the S2F model, @fillippone has a very good thread about it, Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity.

Yes, currently it really looks accurate, but it is just another prediction model, bitcoin market is very young, we really don't know if this is going to hold true in the coming years.

jossiel

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It only shows the possibility of bitcoin to hit $100k but it doesn't prove that it will actually be there. Treat it as the usual analysis that we have unless it's proven then we say that it has proved to be the exact model what bitcoin has portrayed.

$100k is high yet feasible but $1M, forget it for now.

Thavash

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Hi guys

Some of you have heard of the stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin , if not , you're in for a treat. I made a video discussing it here : https://youtu.be/xa2MtJI0wz4

Basically, this measures the total supply of a commodity versus the expected incoming supply , and it could indicate the value of the commodity. It was found by some people a few years back that it seems to be tracking the price of Bitcoin fairly well ! Whats your view , does this prove that $100k and later on $1M are feasible ?

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