I was the winner of that hand, and I don't know did you saw what I wrote you after that hand! I just don't remember who raised before flop, but flop was A K 8, and you my friend had AK, and you decided to check that flop! Turn was J, and guy with trilling decided to raise, you decided to follow and what could I do with Q10 and straight. At that moment I was the strongest on the table, I was thinking that river can ruin me (it's not like it never happened) and it could, but luckily for me it didn't! I told you that big rise after flop would make me fold, probably the guy with two jacks would do the same, but you decided to suck us in as you say, and that jack was what I needed and enough for the guy next to me with two jacks. After that jack you should fold with your two pairs. I lost many similar hands, and in my opinion having two pairs is the worst possible hand in poker, you would always fold one pair without problem, but that second pair can make you to believe in them and it's hard to fold them.
Yup, I know, but that's poker. There's a point during every hand where you can either play it safe or risk it. The safe play for me would have been to scare you 2 from the table after the flop and take the pot. But I did not want the pot, I wanted more - someone to bluff so I can play the 'follow' guy and then raise before the river or after the river. The initial pot was medium-sized, this was a hand to take big winnings.
Even after J flopped, I still felt I had the strongest hand. It's not that common that people have more than a pair after the flop, I was not scared of the double Jacks in hand, I was a bit scared of somebody getting the straight on a river - that's why I wanted to take that all-in call.
If I was the last one, no way I would have left that turn card without raising. But I was the first one to play so I took a calculated risk - the odds in these situations are in my favor. Based on Poker odds calculator, JJ in hand has 11% chance against that flop, possible straight with your cards from hand has 14% chance. If all 3 of us play, odds are 88% in my favor, 8% in yours and 4% in favor of a guy with JJ in hand.
The problem for me is that these kind of things have been happening to me throughout the tournament, what I did is not a mistake in itself - it is part of strategy. The thing is - whenever I do something that has multiple choices - I always pay the highest possible price.
To keep it simple, you were scared of somebody getting the straight on a river, but straight was already there! Your calculator with those odds is maybe for the river, but after that jack on the turn, I was 90% and you and jack waited for the river! In case of jack, king or ace I would lose and some of you to would win! Point is that you paid for river, and you had small chances to see that king or ace again. Jack would lose if there would be another K or Ace, you would be the higher full house, he could see another 8 or one more jack, but luckily for me he didn't!
My friend this kind of things happen to me all the time! It's poker after all, if you saw my comments than you know that I was on that losing side many times, too many times is you ask me! I will tell you one strategy I find very wise, take a look at your cards and make a decision how much they worth. Pot, double or triple pot?! Maybe all in?! Your cards + pot cards give you a value, compare that value with your chips and if it is worth pay, if not fold!
