With the recent drop in the exchange rate for bitcoins and the comments in this thread about maybe raising the prices due to that it got me thinking that the share price of service businesses like this should be somewhat inversely correlated with bitcoin price.
i.e price of bitcoin goes down then the revenue should go up as either BitCoinTorrentz.com can charge more or get more customers as it is better value, therefore the share price (in BTC) should go up.
Is this thinking correct in general? Could this give some level of hedging against bitcoin price decreases? (Maybe not yet because market size is so small on GLBSE but maybe in the future if it develops further).
I have thought about this myself, and came to similar conclusions. This might be reflected by the fact that the share price has risen recently to 1.4 btc/share, an increase of 700%, which on the surface looks too good to be true. But on 16th September, when I first listed this company on GLBSE, the bitcoin exchange rate to USD was roughly $5-6. It is currently standing at about $3, which is almost a 50% drop - so it might be rational to assume that half of this 700% increase might be explained by the reduced purchasing power of bitcoin.
However, the price of the service has not been altered to reflect the exchange rate. In fact, it has actually been reduced by 50% from the original price I had set in my growth estimates. I really try to ignore the btc:usd exchange rate as best I can. Deciding not to link to the exchange rate was more of an ideological decision than a profit-seeking one, I know shareholders will shudder to hear me say that, but several users have commented positively on the pricing structure, so I think it is bang on target to encourage use and growth of the service.
Shareholders will also be happy to know that BitCoinTorrentz is currently turning over a profit 480% greater than my original growth estimates which where admittedly quite conservative, despite the price being 50% more than what I am charging now. So it is rational to assume that 480% of the 700% increase can be attributed to my undervaluation of the share price at the IPO. The other 220% might be due to the 50% drop in value of bitcoin as you suggested.
It's difficult to come to any sort of meaningful conclusion however, as interpreting all the variables is challenging - especially when you try to factor in the volatility of the bitcoin price.
Just now, I was asked "why isn't there someone who offers to remotely download torrents for me? That would be the occasion to use Bitcoins, too!" and I answered, "actually, there is."
So you'll have another user sometime soon. And I think this is an implication that you are nowhere near having addressed even a fraction of a percent of your target market if a frequent BitTorrent and Bitcoin user did not even know the site yet. It probably takes a while to spread the word, keep it up!
Haha. Thats awesome, and thanks for the referral!
I do think that there is still huge potential out there for this service, even considering the very impressive current growth figures. It's only been 5 weeks since launch. It took 3 years after it's inception for me to discover bitcoin. I could go out and spam every forum I can find, but I would rather grow this business slowly and organically, so that I can adequately cope with increasing demand.