For the past months, there's been a HUGE contract holder on OKC.
Longs were dreading he might be long, since he would have to sell at some point, however, today he finally gave a clue to his position.
Since price is rising and his position decreased slightly,
he appears to be SHORT and taking a beating.This contract ends in March 31. When he closes his position, BTC going to explode whether it be from the depths of 700 due to ETF being rejected, or new all time highs.
I agree with you about the BFX shorts ... that looks like a recipe for disaster :/
This OKC one does too, but its a bit more complex - been watching it while and seemed pretty obvous it was a short due to the, at times, > $80 discount on the quarterly vs weekly and even more vs spot. Also, this position is roughly 50% of the open interest. Not possible to close it in an orderly fashion if it goes the wrong way. Period. And the holder knows this and knew it when he took that size position relative to the market.
However, due to it having an expiry, the owner deos not have to close it. And at any point he can just walk away and take the hit having withdrawn the max maintenance margin/profit possible. The loss from there would be max 5k BTC, possibly only 2.5k, depending on the leverage used, and nothing would actually have to be bought on market at all. The longs just get fucked and not paid out. The OKC futures market is a zero sum game.
If it then gets stopped out, the net result will likely be that there is a massive buy order sitting there unfilled in the OKC futures order book, the loss will be 'socialised' ie. anyone betting against him will not make any money. Its a truly fucked up scenario that will likely doom the exchange imo.
More than that, I would be very surprised if this is not an insider of sorts who has taken this position. Either an OKC 'associate' or a PBoC 'family member'. Only someone with access/control to policies of OKC and or PBoC would commit to such a thing imo. It is insanity otherwise.
The fact that we appear to have two 'systemic risk' sized positions in the market, in the same direction, at the same time, is very disconcerting tbh.
Maybe they know something, maybe they dont. Maybe they can influence things, maybe they can't. But both are too big for this market and are unlikley to end well unless 'shenanigans'. Watch out for a BFX 'hack' ...
Yup, buy spot popcorn, enough for 4-6 weeks!!
So ... sideways then lol
Also, yes, it is my understanding that the ETF has to be officially 'approved' by the SEC, so 'no comment' = 'no ETF', not 'approved'. Deadline on this is 11th March. No more extensions.
From what I read, most ETF that are not going to be approved are withdrawn close to the final date to save face (ie they are given a nudge, gentlemans agreement style)
I wonder what the twins would choose in this scenario (we may never ge to find out of course!)
