Topic: [BitFunder] My name is Bond. MPOE Bond. ( Jan: 9.99%, Feb: 4.8% Mar: -23%) - page 5. (Read 9037 times)

As we are going to be only a small fish so far, we  won't do any elaborate strategies. Just set the rate conservatively, if the deadline was today, we'd go for 4.8%.

Yes, the minimum is 100, so I guess at least initially he'll be working on one single block.



In fact the optimum strategy for bond purchasers collectively is for someone (not for everyone) to ask high, but for each individually to ask low. On analysis this situation is slightly different both from the prisoner dilemma (where indeed best strategy collectively is for everyone to x but best strategy individually is for each to y) and from the classical disaster of commons (where best strategy for each individually is to take most and give least). Maybe Bitcoin has just created its very own game theory situation.


Actually quite the opposite, if you look at the 1st graph above. Most of the time raised capital covered needs. The exceptions are last month, when needs suddenly spiked up 335%, and April, where needs spiked up 330% (merely this stability in spikes seems remarkable to my eye). The bondholders quickly covered the difference in May, and May-Oct there's no red (ie, creditor of last resort contribution).

What possibly throws you off is the period before Mar 2012, but quoting from the article introducing the bonds:


Bond interest asked was originally limited at 2%, then this limit was raised to 5% on macroeconomic data, and after August proved that presumptions of macroeconomic stability were muchly exaggerated the ceiling was removed completely. It is possible it may come back but from what I gather somewhat unlikely. At any rate for now there's no maximum.

That aside, simply having a 1000% interest as the 100 BTC capper of a 10, 50, 100k BTC train of bonds all charging < 1% is obviously not a winning strategy by itself, as it will make all the BTC if and when the needs exceed capital, but it won't make very much otherwise. The agreement in the Board is that the only optimal strategy and only stable strategy is for each individual player to bid exactly the interest rate that he judges adequate on the market as he knows it. They don't have formal proof for this yet (it has been sought on and off for a little over half a year so far).


Yeah well I saw that, but was curious if anything more elaborate was contemplated.

From the BitFunder asset Description:

Is this what you were looking for?

Was wondering that myself.  Think it depends a bit how many chunks of bonds he can buy (isn't there some minimum block?) and what he knows about other people's bidding strategies.

Game-theory wise it's almost a classic Prisoner's Dilemma scenario - where optimum strategy for bond purchasers collectively is if EVERYONE bids very high but the optimum for any individual prospective investor is to bid the lowest rate they're willing to accept.

One thing's for sure - as a good portion of the time (including last month) the raised capital didn't cover needed capital there needs to be ONE block of bonds from someone asking whatever the maximum allowable rate is.  Were I investing in this, and if I knew others who were, then I'd be looking to collectively fund a bid at 100%, 1000% or whatever the max allowed is - so if all funds are needed it's guaranteed bonds get all of any profits.

If this offering ends up just tiny then really it should probably bid very low (like 2% or something to cover the 1% markup plus trade fees) - and let the big boys bid the rate up.

Since MPOE bonds contain user serviceable parts (the interest rate), any word on what strategy you will be using?

MP released historical data for the bonds that made me realize spreadsheet published by me was wrong for October 2012. Fixed & added data for January and February.

If 007 were named MPOE, after the self introduction of 007, the bad guy would  have already laughed to death and it would be the End of the movie.

It is meant that there is a cooperation - CoinBr is the "issuer" or operator, Bitfunder provides the trade platform. So the MPBPT can be bought only on bitfunder.com.

Graphs!





Lots of words too. MPOE bonds historical data.

Awesome idea.  Love it.

Cool - so there's no fixed mark up: you'll charge whatever you think the market will bear.  That's fine - and a perfectly sensible and transparent way to do it.

No complicated calculation is involved, it stems directly from the market price - if you buy 1BTC (10 MPBPT shares) worth of bonds quickly, you will pay 0.95 BTC + small bitfunder fee. If you wait till only shares priced @ 0.101 BTC are available, you will have to pay 1.0101BTC - and that 0.0101BTC is exactly the margin. It may be slightly less, depending on your volume on bitfunder.

Then, in the end of January, if MPOE breaks exactly even, you will get 1BTC back.

So what's your own cut on it?  i.e. if I buy 1 BTC worth of bonds and MPOE-O breaks exactly even, how much do I get back?

Your post mentions trader margin (which I assume to mean your markup) but doesn't say what that is (if fixed) or how it's calculated (if variable).

Other than that seems a sound idea.  Anyone investing needs to read up on how that capital is used (and profits calulcated) before investing - so a link to that may have been a good idea (there's nothing dodgy about it - it's just not what a lot of investors will be used to, as it actually makes sense).

This is actually a good idea.

BitFunder and CoinBr have launched exclusive offering for one of consistently most profitable bitcoin investments, the MPOE Bonds. To accomodate the nature of this underlying investment, every month the assets will go through three phases:

1. Fundraising
Bond shares will be offered at fixed price of (bond nominal price)+(trader margin). In the end of this phase, initial offer will be withdrawn and raised funds so far will be used to buy MPOE bonds.
2. Free trade
Further trade will be possible only with shares that were bought in step 1.
3. Liquidation
Liquidation process will mirror the liquidation of original bonds, the principal +yield or -loss will be converted to bitcoins. You will be able to invest into other asset for the next month. Between liquidation of a asset for one month and ending of fundraising for next month will be almost 24 hour grace period so you can invest immediately. This short perion is given by original MPOE rules. We are considering the best way for automatically carrying the investment over to the next month , it is likely it will be solved before February offering comes.

The details and dates of these phases are in each asset's description.

CoinBr.MPBPT-O will invest to MPOE bonds for January, March,May, etc..
CoinBr.MPBPT-E will invest to MPOE bonds for February,April,June, etc..