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Topic: Bitmain Antminer S9 - page 4. (Read 14021 times)

legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
May 26, 2016, 06:51:58 PM
#43
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher

Come mid July after halving that won't be the case.

to think that they think (as the OP says) that we are all stupid and don't know about halving would be a bit too much.

it will be close to 7btc like I said   it won't be 3.3btc.

And if bitfury decides to knock heads with them bitmaintech will lower the price and crush them in a price war.

As for a premium price 7btc is not premium  10 btc is premium.

the math for it at 7btc works if your power is 5 cents.  

my assumption would be 5 cent power with coins at 450

no way it works for 7btc for 14th with coin at $450, not even close.
Please recheck your math.
I used vnbitcoin calculator, then adjusted for halving manually
I get $585 revenue until July 15, then it swithes to $7/day minus $2 for power (I used 5c), so you will start with $5/day revenue on July 10-15.
The remainder is $2565, so IF btc stays the same and difficulty does not rise, you will breakeven in 2565/5=513 days.
I don't care what they ask.

I did and changed to 500 from 450.

Knowing them  they won't price at 3.3  and 7 is high as a 500 usd price with 4 cent power and 3% jumps would be needed to break even.

They may do 6.5 btc or maybe 6 btc.  I can not see them going lower then that price.

lets say they do 4 btc (which they won't) if you have 5 cent power  3% jumps and  450 btc you roi in 200 days they will not do that.

as other farms will buy and jump diff too fast they rather sell slower.

so say 5 btc  you roi in 260 days with 450 coin 3% jumps and 5 cent power.

so at 5 btc   with 5 cent power it could work for a buyer.


Since I have the solar array I could do  one or two to 2x my hash power.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
May 26, 2016, 06:49:48 PM
#42
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher

Come mid July after halving that won't be the case.

to think that they think (as the OP says) that we are all stupid and don't know about halving would be a bit too much.

it will be close to 7btc like I said   it won't be 3.3btc.

And if bitfury decides to knock heads with them bitmaintech will lower the price and crush them in a price war.

As for a premium price 7btc is not premium  10 btc is premium.

the math for it at 7btc works if your power is 5 cents.  

my assumption would be 5 cent power with coins at 450

no way it works for 7btc for 14th with coin at $450, not even close.
Please recheck your math.
I used vnbitcoin calculator, then adjusted for halving manually using 1600w.
I get $585 revenue until July 15, then it swithes to $7/day minus $2 for power (I used 5c), so you will start with $5/day revenue on July 10-15.
The remainder is $2565, so IF btc stays the same and difficulty does not rise, you will breakeven in 2565/5=513 days.
I don't care what they ask; If btc needs to rise to breakeven, then I don't need bitmain-I can buy coin and go long.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
May 26, 2016, 06:39:12 PM
#41
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher

Come mid July after halving that won't be the case.

to think that they think (as the OP says) that we are all stupid and don't know about halving would be a bit too much.

it will be close to 7btc like I said   it won't be 3.3btc.

And if bitfury decides to knock heads with them bitmaintech will lower the price and crush them in a price war.

As for a premium price 7btc is not premium  10 btc is premium.

the math for it at 7btc works if your power is 5 cents.  

my assumption would be 5 cent power with coins at 500 and 3% diff jumps. it breaks even in about a year
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
May 26, 2016, 06:22:17 PM
#40
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher

Come mid July after halving that won't be the case.

to think that they think (as the OP says) that we are all stupid and don't know about halving would be a bit too much.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 253
May 26, 2016, 06:19:52 PM
#39
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher

Come mid July after halving that won't be the case.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
May 26, 2016, 06:17:56 PM
#38
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher

If the price is out of balance, who would pay it?
I will rather pay it to myself, then get it in 3 mo for less than half the price.
Or I would go to Microcenter tomorrow and get GTX 1080 instead for just $599.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 253
May 26, 2016, 06:13:15 PM
#37
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher

I seriously do not get why people are expecting a brand new design top of the line miner for peanuts. Please how me one piece of hardware from a major asic manufacturer that did not have a premium on its price for the first few months of production. Also lowering its price on new units to 'hurt' bitfury? Uhhh....what?

Only time will tell. I certainly am not expecting the price to be peanuts. But on the other hand at 10 btc I won't be a buyer.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 560
May 26, 2016, 06:08:24 PM
#36
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher

I seriously do not get why people are expecting a brand new design top of the line miner for peanuts. Please how me one piece of hardware from a major asic manufacturer that did not have a premium on its price for the first few months of production. Also lowering its price on new units to 'hurt' bitfury? Uhhh....what?
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
May 26, 2016, 05:58:58 PM
#35
The numbers you guys are showing and calculating are based on customers' needs

Price will be 7-10BTC - because profit for BTM from it will be 2-3 times higher
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
May 26, 2016, 05:00:58 PM
#34
so it is still speculation

we know 14th

we do not know

watts?
price?
when does it ship?

if it gets .095 watts and does 1350 watts 1 psu    it would be a beast a killer a monster.

if it gets .15 watts a gh  2100 watts and needs 2 psu's meh!

price has real meaning for us.   it is 3 s-7's

  so 3btc would be too low

say 7 btc if it uses 1 psu and only 1350 watts

maybe 6 btc if it uses 2 psus and 2200 watts

roi on a 7 btc 14th unit is hard to do

if it were 4-5btc it is an easy choice.

why would around 3btc for 14 th be too low?
S7 is priced at 420 (used), but S7 has still 1.5mo useful life until halving.
14/4.73=2.95 (multiplication factor)
2.95X 450 (for new S7)= $1327. Add $200-300 for increased efficiency and you'll get $1500 a.k.a 3.3 BTC.
You'll have to consider that while producing maybe $450 in profit (with 8.9 c electric) until halving, it will slow to a crawl of $220/mo afterwards (even without diffuculty adjustment), so even $1500 will maybe breakeven in 6-8 mo or even later if difficulty increase rapidly.
At 3-3.3 btc i might buy one, at above I will simply buy bitcoin for now.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 253
May 26, 2016, 04:50:19 PM
#33
I don't expect any significant shipment s for at least a month. If they ship it in a week, that only further depresses the value of the used S7's they are selling.

If some other manufacturer produces something real, that might change their timing.

It will be interesting to watch, kind of, but I am unlikely to buy one. 

they could price it low for the first two batches just to put a hurt on bitfury.

That would be a good idea. I'd buy as many as I could. Now that bitfury has no use for the average miner I now feel the same way about them.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
May 26, 2016, 04:38:19 PM
#32
I don't expect any significant shipment s for at least a month. If they ship it in a week, that only further depresses the value of the used S7's they are selling.

If some other manufacturer produces something real, that might change their timing.

It will be interesting to watch, kind of, but I am unlikely to buy one. 

they could price it low for the first two batches just to put a hurt on bitfury.
alh
legendary
Activity: 1846
Merit: 1052
May 26, 2016, 03:43:40 PM
#31
I don't expect any significant shipment s for at least a month. If they ship it in a week, that only further depresses the value of the used S7's they are selling.

If some other manufacturer produces something real, that might change their timing.

It will be interesting to watch, kind of, but I am unlikely to buy one. 
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
May 26, 2016, 03:32:45 PM
#30
No wonder they are selling the S7 so cheap now.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 253
May 26, 2016, 03:27:45 PM
#29
so it is still speculation

we know 14th

we do not know

watts?
price?
when does it ship?

if it gets .095 watts and does 1350 watts 1 psu    it would be a beast a killer a monster.

if it gets .15 watts a gh  2100 watts and needs 2 psu's meh!

price has real meaning for us.   it is 3 s-7's

  so 3btc would be too low

say 7 btc if it uses 1 psu and only 1350 watts

maybe 6 btc if it uses 2 psus and 2200 watts

roi on a 7 btc 14th unit is hard to do

if it were 4-5btc it is an easy choice.


You are correct that price and power consumption will have a giant impact. As far as when? My bet is any day now. But that's just more speculation  Grin
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
May 26, 2016, 02:49:17 PM
#28
so it is still speculation

we know 14th

we do not know

watts?
price?
when does it ship?

if it gets .095 watts and does 1350 watts 1 psu    it would be a beast a killer a monster.

if it gets .15 watts a gh  2100 watts and needs 2 psu's meh!

price has real meaning for us.   it is 3 s-7's

  so 3btc would be too low

say 7 btc if it uses 1 psu and only 1350 watts

maybe 6 btc if it uses 2 psus and 2200 watts

roi on a 7 btc 14th unit is hard to do

if it were 4-5btc it is an easy choice.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 253
May 26, 2016, 02:21:40 PM
#27

14th and 10btc is unviable. 14th and 2.5-3 BTC-maybe OK, still would be slightly overpriced going forward.

I really like the idea of 14th in one unit. I guess it ultimately boils down to price. Hope they are reasonable.

Edit: I guess it's safe to assume this is no longer speculation.
Edit 2: As far as speculation, I was referring to the existence of something solid from bitmain acknowledging the s9.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
May 26, 2016, 02:17:45 PM
#26

14th and 10btc is unviable. 14th and 2.5-3 BTC-maybe OK, still would be slightly overpriced going forward.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
legendary
Activity: 2030
Merit: 1076
A humble Siberian miner
May 26, 2016, 02:01:22 PM
#24
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