Topic: Bitmain looks like they're releasing a 15GH/s DASH miner called the AntMiner D3 - page 186. (Read 299754 times)

The next big correction in BTC will be headlined by "bitcoin suicides on the rise" by ppl who gambled off every penny they had.

This reminds me of the litecoin thread back in May. When prices dropped everyone was creating these estimates, pretty much same verdict that the L3+ would be unprofitable. This was followed by more evidence as the market had a correction. We all know how that turned out. Let's wait until the first two batches ship before discussing more. At the end of the day just risk what you are willing to risk, but do not throw your life savings away.  

As they say, time is money.  Can you imagine having one now earing $2600 per month?  That works out to be about $87 per day $3.61 per hour or 6¢ per minute before electricity costs.  It all comes down to your electricity costs and those with free or low electric rates will always win out.  What you are not factoring in to make it even worse is if the price of Dash and other X11 coins drop even further.  We're going to have a lot of angry people out there.

very nice round-up, thank you!

It could be many things they might want a stable price with all the fluxuations and hedge themselves with all the btc and LTC they took in these past 6 months between the L3s and the D3s

I've said this before and I believe even more strongly today than ever. There is big trouble in little China. The government is doing some very scary things from the Bitmain perspective. Bitmain has absolutely announced a 50 million $ mining facility plan for the USA. It's very possible that Bitmain feels very threatened in their home country right now. China likes to pretend they have "free markets" but the truth is they don't. If I were a Bitmain Executive I would be very nervous and definitely taking precautionary measures for my business.

Anyone here with any updates on shipping for the first batch, please post anything you hear as it comes in. I'm sure many in this thread are as excited as I am.

In the meantime I figured we might as well run some numbers again to try to estimate Dash/X11 difficulty in December as a result of these D3's coming online. I know we have visited this topic in this thread already, so I will try to include the data from previous estimates.

I'd like to do three versions, the first being a worst case/pessimistic estimate, second a best case/optimistic estimate, and a third 'medium' estimate which is an average of the two together (roughly in the middle)

Please feel free anyone to check my math and correct me where I make mistakes as I'm sure I will.

Lets start with some quick general information for those who may be new here:

1 kH/s is 1,000 hashes per second (sometimes mistakenly written KH/s). 1 MH/s is1,000,000 hashes per second. 1 GH/s is 1,000,000,000 hashes per second. 1 TH/s is 1,000,000,000,000 hashes per second.
1 kH/s = 1000
1 MH/s = 1,000,000
1 GH/s = 1,000,000,000
1 TH/s = 1,000,000,000,000

Global hashrate at the time of this writing according to this link:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/dash-hashrate.html

is 38.7 TH/s

Each D3 hashes (approximatley) at a rate of 15GH/s.
This correlates to 67 D3 units hashing equate to one TH/s addition to the global hashrate.
If we divide the current global hashrate by the hashrate of D3's, we see that it would take 2479 D3 units running to create that same global hashrate.

Another way to put it is if 2479 D3's were to come online right now the global hashrate would effectivley double.

Doubling the global hashrate would also double the difficulty and reduce profitability by half.

This of course does not take into account the other X11 coins that can be mined, and it would not be reasonable to expect all the D3's coming out to mine only dash, but for simplification I will only use dash for these calculations.

We have seen a total of 10 batches of D3's go on sale (that we know of) for delivery ranging from late September to Late November. As other have pointed out in this thread, by looking at the checkout page on the bitmain site we have been able to estimate in a rough way the amount of D3 units available in each batch. As Ross from CryptoCrane points out, we do not know how many of these units are actually paid for after checkout, but it stands to reason because of the high demand for these most people who are able to get thgouh the checkout process will follow through and send payment. (Also we will for the sake of this first 'worst case scenario' that the majority of units ordered are being paid for).

Based on the total number of units for each batch that we have collected in this thread previously, it is reasonable (and again a 'worst case scenario' in terms of difficulty) we could reasonably estimate that the average number of D3 units available across all 10 batches could be as high as 20k units per batch. Of course the data shows that the number of units available varies, with some batches having higher numbers and some being lower. 20k units I am asserting as a reasonable 'worst case' scenario average across all batches thus far that we know of.

There may have been several batches available on the Chinese version of the site that were not mentioned on social media, by my count however there have been 10 total batches for sure.


Now lets run some quick numbers on a profitability calculator here:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/dash?HashingPower=15&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1200&CostPerkWh=0.21

I assuming an electrical rate of 21 cents per Kwh (again, being 'pessimistic')

At the time of this writing, one D3 would yeild $2,604 per month. (already WAY down from when these units were announced by bitmain, as many have mentioned here in this thread this number has been as high as $7k a month)
source:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/dash?HashingPower=15&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1200&CostPerkWh=0.21

More quick math: If difficulty merely doubles, that comes out to $1300 a month.
If difficulty increases tenfold, thats $260 a month
If difficulty increases a hundredfold, it would cost more to run the miner in electricity than it would mine, and the D3 would operate at a net loss of over $178 per month.

Worst case scenario here, is that by December of this year 200,000 D3's come online, which would add 2985TH/s to current global hashrate. Adding that to the current global hashrate for dash of 38.7 TH/s we get 3023.7 TH/s, which would be an increase in hashrate of a multiplier of 78.13 (what I mean is, take the estimated global hashrate of 3023.7 and divide it by the current global hashrate of 38.7)

Based on this (worst case) scenario each D3 would mine 33.38 per month before the cost of electricity.

So this is my first estimate, which I call 'worst case' estimate for dash difficulty by December. Before I try to do a 'best case' what do you guys think of my math thus far? I'm sure I have overlooked things. Any and all thoughts are much appreciated.

On a quick side note, I was able to put in an order last night for 4 D3's on the bitmain site, but based on this math I don't think I will be sending the wire, and I'll just let the order expire.

The problem is if China bans all the exchanges, then Bitmain is going to have to convert all their crypto into fiat soon.  I'm not sure there's enough market demand for people to buy up all of Bitmain's crypto stashes.  I think this is one of the reasons why you can only pay via bank wire now.

They actually sent a tracking number with my order and according to that it just left China.

Bitmain doesn't need to offload any weight. They have made a huge amount on selling the equipment on these and holding coins. I think they are want to reduce risk in holding btc/ltc so they are wanting to sell for USD or lower their risk.But they know they can survive for a long time. Maybe they want to outcompete others but Jihan is no fool. He would not sell equipment to ruin people intentionally. Otherwise this would be bad for his precious bitcoin.

I just figured out, coingecko lets you sort coins by algorythm. So you can get a nearly complete list of every minable coin that you can mine.

Here's x11: https://www.coingecko.com/en?hashing_algorithm=X11

Bitcoin does not look good. Perhaps they want to offload their weight before it's too late. D3 out of stock, but L3+ still available and the site is responsive. Guess demand is not there any more.

I heard there will be a delay for later batches, and they are mostly getting money before other competitors start releasing. Is this true?

If you search forums and markets around the net, you'll see a huge influx of these units being offered at ridiculous prices for resale by seemingly Asian sellers. Hmmm. Curious....

That happened to me on my last L3+ shipment. Never got an email or tracking number, then bam, shows up at my door 6 days later.

I order 1 D3, and payed today, if anyone interesting i can sell it for 4.2K eur, p.s. please i will only ship to EU, no UK., if you need it pls p.m.

I got two SMS but the numbers in these sms are not working. I guess i will find the numbers in my oderlist next week.

Anybody actually received one yet

My first batch D3 is marked as "Shipping", but not yet as "Shipped" and I don't have the Fedex tracking number yet.