Topic: Bitmain looks like they're releasing a 15GH/s DASH miner called the AntMiner D3 - page 250. (Read 299754 times)

That was my exact thinking when I finally decided not to buy one after having spent a couple hours slowly progressing through the website, hitting refresh over and over, going back to start to get one in the cart again.  On the final page I finally bailed and went to sleep instead. The fact that there were lots of people in this thread saying they had managed to make multiple purchases and that it had been two hours since it initially released also had me suspecting that the batch size was actually quite large making individual profitability that much lower when these finally do ship.  I'm sure batch 1 buyers will make a profit, and possibly batch 2 buyers as well, but I am going to wait for the next generation of more efficient miners when the network hashrate will be a lot higher and much less affected by a single model which will also make profitability calculations that much easier.

I agree and despite the trend in this thread difficulty and price are correlated to some degree. It's not like the 2 factors are detached and it doesn't take a genius to see this. Impossible to predict the outcome but as a few guys said after the L3 shipped they were upset they didn't buy more once they got them up and hashing.

Rjenkin is right about the passing of the torch from the barely profitable x11 farms to the new Asics. I agree that 100% increase in difficulty could be offset by those farms switching off Dash. We can all only speculate and we also don't know if Bitmain intends to mine dash or is just testing the Asics before shipping then closing the chapter on them. Current spike in difficulty could be attributed to bitmain mining and then diff decreases when they ship. Again this info isn't being made public but I do wish it was so we could all better estimate.

If Dash "goes up a lot" you're likely better off just buying Dash. In other words, I think you should calculate the ROI/payback/whatchamacallit in Dash, not USD, or rubles, or whatever. Will the D3 mine more Dash than the cost of the miner in Dash at the time of purchase?

For batch 3 the number is approximately 7.5. Will it mine 7.5 DASH or more?

There are two factors here. You have new network hash from new equipment and old marginally profitable hash. My point is, the ratio of old to new miners is important. With more established and larger network hash rates like Bitcoin, even when a new miner comes out, it has an impact but there is an attrition effect i.e. older miners at the end of their life are pushed off the feasibility edge and decommissioned. The result is that the NET network hash rate increase isn't 100%. Also the percentage increase in has rate is manageable. So in the case of something like SHA256 or scrypt you see that.

When Bitmain launched their L3+, you did see a significant difficulty increase but it wasn't x10 or anything. That's because scrypt has a decent hash rate and also many coins to mine. X11 is smaller and the new miners are a much bigger leap up so difficulty will increase a lot. Let's look at the payback though on a D3.

If you had an engineering sample today (someone has them somewhere then your payback according to my calculations and the latest pricing would be a whopping 10 days. That assumes a power cost of around $0.075 (that's what CloudSigma sees in an average location, not the cheapest, not the most expensive). So ten days is clearly extreme, when the other D3s hit what will happen? Firstly understand there are THREE other major upgrades that came out within a month. You have:
- Baikal Giant+
- ibelink
- Dominator A5
- Antminer D3 (clearly biggest volume but not biggest hashrate, the A5 gets that price at up to 38Ghz overclocked)

So if difficulty goes x20 then you are at 200 days for a D3 payback assuming the same price for Dash. If it's x40 then 400 days. I think x40 is the outside amount and it will be less than that. So yeah D3 isn't a get rich quick opportunity unless Dash pricing goes up a lot. Speaking of this, interest is definitely increasing and having all these mining manufacturers drawing interest can only help so I would expect Dash price to start tracking up over the next six months.

In short D3 should be economically viable but it won't have some super quick payback unless you were lucky enough to bag a first batch unit (which was very limited). The main downside will be people with cloud mining contracts or old generation miners which for sure will become economically untenable after these new units hit the market.

Interested to hear others' feedback on my thoughts above!

Robert

$10/day was the number that was suggested, I just ran with it. Nobody actually believes the profit per day will stay constant. I think it will actually be much better than $10/day. So do lots of other people apparently. We could all be wrong, but I prefer to be optimistic.

Full disclosure: I don't have a crystal ball.

Sure mate because coz we all know ROI always will stays constant at 10 bucks a month and difficulty and all other factors wont reduce it. lol!

So as a collective group are we now pretty certain the ROI for these will be WAY past let say 1 month... for the October batch?

mining and value are not related.

price of a coin is based on what someone else is willing to pay for it. you could mine 10 or you could mine 100 million, if no one wants to buy, it'll be worth zero.

likewise, if a dump happens, it will drown out buyers and crash the coin value. LTC got dumped and recovered 2 years later. DASH wont be as dramatic if a dump ever happens, due to masternodes, but the idea remains the same.

Dont associate mining difficulty with coin dollar value. You can get dissapointed the hard way.

Before I would dive into these mining devices, I will wait what is the real impact of D3 come Oct. Naturally DASH difficulty would dramatically rise but how about its price and those masternodes.

yeah, well....i did not much care..till he hit the F5 and got the cart address up..then he was like..'well, do you want to pay now that I got the amount and LTC address up"

shocked I was

so, of course, I folded like a tent ....I mean, everyone else wants one........and scrambling..so of course NOW it is too attractive for me to pass up

(I mean I've just watched the other lemmings lose their minds in bitcointalk bitmain thread the last few hours)

so whatever....odd way to impulse buy thou....thru a fat fingered friends 1) extra unit in a cart 2) bored and hitting F5 as we chatted on phone...I guess it

became a quest to stick me with one..in that he got two previously!!!!

(ack! it's a trap ack!)

much like this place if anyone remembers...."I'm not a number 6" (I doubt anyone is old enough to remember this show)



Prisoner on ASIC Island...trapped with the other lemmings.....

a 2nd D3 (got one the other batch at $2,600 ..I thought I'd learned my lesson...now this one at $1,500)

frack..just a 'number' to bitmain indeed (bitmain tm evil)

LMAO! You're right of course, emotional buying on a hypothetical chance

I got caught up in the hype...

I was NOT gonna get one....which worked out because I could NOT get into the product page

BUT a buddy saw I was on...(longsnowsm thanks) and was frantically bashing refresh and got 1 extra so he had an extra in his cart.

thus ..we talked on the phone for 1 hour plus while he hit F5 over and over to get in ..for the heck of it...hell we were on the phone anyway

and viola got in and it let him pay...but literally 2 hrs later...he got into the cart and got a LTC address up

so...conflicted ...not entirely sure it will be a great bet on ROI with the of x11 equip hitting the world

but got swept up with the rest of you lemmings as I was swept off the ASIC x11 pre-order cliff

my only saving grace was that I was at LEAST for a bit a 'reluctant lemming"

still, think this particular unit buy .might go pear shaped..roi wise before its a doorstop

we will see (we all in this together boys and girls)

(damn, I've no frigging will power....following you guys...a bunch of homo sapiens hairless monkeys hooting and tossing FUD..yeah this will work out just dandy)

a day late, mate. Sorry. It was chaotic yesterday. Some people got orders in and some didn't. Their site was up and down.

are they supposed to release the batch now at 11pm est?

wow i think i was a day late.. it's aug 11 here and the time clock showed 11am in gmt+8 is 11pm in est.. but im 24 hours late it seems NOooo

I don't think it will be nearly that bad and I'm optimistic it will actually be much better. If I'm completely wrong and it only mined exactly $10/day indefinitely (for the sake of easy math), it would still only take 7 months (216.5 days) to reach 100% ROI @ $0.10/kWh ($2.88/day in electricity = $7.12/day profit). If that's the worst case scenario, then this seems like a REALLY good bet to me.

That is about what I came up with also is we will be lucky to see $10 a day out of these... And that may be a little to optimistic.  All depends on how many miners they are shipping from each of the vendors and what Bitmain is going to be shipping.  Maybe you'll catch a break if Bitmain sales choke off the sales of the other miners.  Hard to know.

I know my Baikal's are just getting destroyed already so I don't think they will continue to run for a lot longer with the way things are collapsing already.

Bought couple of units, probably was a bad a idea. Did some forward projections with last 8 weeks as a past sample size, looks like we will lucky to make 10 bucks a day when the November batch comeouts for D3

It's out of stock currently.

Guys why I can't add to my cart D3 miner? 

Based on experience, Batch 4 will be next Month.
They need to churn out BITCOIN Miner to stay in the game. Since BITMAIN is mining BCH, there will be machines for sale soon.