Topic: Bitstamp has taken over MTGOX on volume! (Read 4311 times)

EU and my place may have little space due to not too hot.

When people keepanic, they will be happy.

Mt. Gox still has higher volume according to bitcoincharts.  Think we need to kick it a few more times till it dies. 
30d volume Mt. Gox : 551,600  Bitstamp: 268,400
24h volume Mt. Gox:   42.438   Bitstamp: 10,700

lol, they have the obligation to exchange and then send money/bitcoin back. (nobody send them resources for charity)

They are not robbers because you deposited your money there and they have no legal obligation to give you back that money.

Great for me, because I verified both

MtGox sucks. Kidnapping my money for two months and have no desire to payback. They are scammers, robbers.

Indeed, that will be the real turning point, it still looks like Gox leads the market, probably because all the whales live their.

You will know that BitStamp has definitely taken over MTGOX when a dump on BitStamp will induce a dump on MtGox, not vice versa.

Thats because it has more depth and whales still go there.

Bistamp is more representative of small/medium players.

I hate to see Gox go because of how their stupidity causes market action, but.. its well deserved. 24hr volume, Gox only leading by 70%

HAHA I noticed that too.

As always, as soon as things start moving, MtGox gains a lot more volume than Bitstamp, easily twice as much.

I didn't know they were even close.  Well deserved by bitstamp, and a long time coming for the unreliable Mt. Gox.

LOL

bitstampUSD   95.4000   8,440.29
mtgoxUSD   104.0400   8,100.38


I don't get it - why can't Gox perform? It should be a coin printing machine and they mess it up.

hehe bitcoinity switched places in their list, bitstamp is now the first one.

What do you mean ?

The wicked witch is dead!

That's why it would have to be a market buy (to move the price to the desired target) accompanied by a new support wall.
Done in one step if you, say, put in a buy order for 10,000 Bitcoins at 110 when the price was at 95.

The volume on the other exchanges, relatively speaking, is still pretty low. Now if they tried running the price to 200, of course everyone would come out of the woodwork and sell into the wall, eating it.
But a modest move that put the price only slightly above Gox, alongside a massive wall. If you were holding coins on Bitstamp, would you sell? How much?

I try to imagine a) my emotional, then logical reaction to theoretical events, which then leads to b) my planned actions, using those reactions as a proxy for market sentiment as a whole.

I've racked my brain for a long time to try to think of a way this logjam could be broken, prior to Mt. Gox either failing or resolving their issues.  This is the only idea I've been able to come up with that seems like it would have a chance.  But it's really just an informed guess.  Or as some might call it...speculation 

Chainsaw if that would happen (large market order 95-110) on bitstamp i bet in few hours we would be around 100 nothing more - and gox wouldn't even move because of that.

Seriously, where?

Agreed.  At least, as it pertains to normal market participants. I believe a whale can break us out of this equilibrium (more at end of post).

Current, relatively-stable prices are:

Mt Gox - 106.25
Other BTC-E/Bitstamp - 97.50

Price difference of 8.75.

8.75 / 106.25 = 8.25%

At equilibrium, people seem willing to take an 8.25% loss on their funds to have them represented somewhere other than Gox.

I take that to mean that, absent conclusive data, the market speculates there is an 8.25% chance that Gox defaults, or that they will fail to be able to receive their fiat.
(Or viewed from the other perspective, people are willing to assume the additional risk of getting nothing, in exchange for an 8.25% premium when they sell.)

I am expecting this stasis to be broken when a whale decides to leverage the power of his money by driving the price on a non-Gox exchange above the Gox exchange.
A market buy alongside a new support wall, let's say driving the Bitstamp price up to 110 while Gox is at 106.25.

What happens next?
Suddenly, everyone sitting at Gox not wanting to take a hit by re-buying, now has a motivation to buy their coins, as they can now move them over to Bitstamp.
Except this in turn moves the price on Gox back to equilibrium (or more likely, a premium over that, as we are now.)

Which suggests we are no better off than when we began.
Except we're not.

The market as a whole would now be xx users/volume closer to being done with Mt. Gox.
The whale will have won, as he bought coins from 95 to 110, and the resultant price jumps on Gox establish a new floor of 110 for all of those coins.

After the necessary several days of consolidation, he or another will try the same thing again. Each will move price upwards.
At some point, the trick stops working, for one of two different reasons:

1. Not enough volume and users remain on Gox - the well is completely dry, the market just needs to realize it. (This will happen relatively quickly, as volume is easily discoverable data.)

2. The repeated price moves that were profitable for one in fact begins a true rally, one which is not focused on Mt. Gox, but rather, any other exchange.