I can sort of see the logic. If the bottom is already in at $150, then it doesn't make sense to spend the next year before the halving right above the bottom. The bottom should have been overdone, meaning that actual steady-state consolidation price is more unemotional, so a few times higher.
In 2011 the bottom was $2, and there was
half a year of hovering around $5, then another half year of oscillating around $10 or low teens. $750 is 5x the bottom at $150, as $10 was 5x the bottom at $2. The idea being that "$150 is the new $2. $700 is the new $10." Here's the chart for the two years 2011 and 2012:
Here's the past two years (up to today) compressed to show the similar pattern to the above:
Same timespan of two years in both charts, but the second one is compressed about 2.5x. Some almost uncanny similarities in the shape of that downtrend, no?
History never quite repeats, and the downtrend this time has continued
about three times as long, so who knows. But OP is suggesting a kind of rhyme ("history never repeats, but it rhymes") that makes some sense to me.
If the history repeats at 150/2 scale and 3 times slower, we should expect 1.5 year around $350 and another 1.5 around $750. No next ATH untill 2018. A lot of patience will we need.
