Bold statement: Next target is low ~$700s (Awaiting scream of laughter) - page 3.

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

I can sort of see the logic. If the bottom is already in at $150, then it doesn't make sense to spend the next year before the halving right above the bottom. The bottom should have been overdone, meaning that actual steady-state consolidation price is more unemotional, so a few times higher.

In 2011 the bottom was $2, and there was half a year of hovering around $5, then another half year of oscillating around $10 or low teens. $750 is 5x the bottom at $150, as $10 was 5x the bottom at $2. The idea being that "$150 is the new $2. $700 is the new $10." Here's the chart for the two years 2011 and 2012:

Here's the past two years (up to today) compressed to show the similar pattern to the above:

Same timespan of two years in both charts, but the second one is compressed about 2.5x. Some almost uncanny similarities in the shape of that downtrend, no?

History never quite repeats, and the downtrend this time has continued about three times as long, so who knows. But OP is suggesting a kind of rhyme ("history never repeats, but it rhymes") that makes some sense to me.

fortif78

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: Elwar on April 30, 2015, 08:02:59 AM

I am not sure that another jump like the rise to $1200 is in the cards.

The huge jumps in the past were based on the idea that we were going to reach critical mass.

I think we have reached it and the adoption rate is steady. We have had so much good news this past year that I can't see anything that would rally people to believe that the price will be several times higher than its current price.

Though I can see a price discovery point when the mining reward halves.

Whilst I do not agree with this topic specifically, your statement there is too full of lol.
You may want to rethink that one.

Natalia_AnatolioPAMM

full member

Activity: 280

Merit: 100

why not 1700$

Chef Ramsay

legendary

Activity: 1568

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Dafar on April 30, 2015, 09:20:59 AM

Going from $300 --> $700 --> $400 within the next few months sounds weird to me. Won't happen.

If we are destined for another bull run then 700 could be the first sell off phase and if it did go down near 400 it wouldn't last long there as newer buyers would be getting their second wind at cheaper coins.

yayayo

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1024

Quote from: Dafar on April 30, 2015, 09:20:59 AM

Going from $300 --> $700 --> $400 within the next few months sounds weird to me. Won't happen.

That makes it even more likely to happen. Remember: This is Bitcoin. Cheesy

I'm not sure regarding the proposed pattern neither, but the upcoming availability of Bitcoin investment instruments (GBTC, ETN, Winklevii ETF) could support the price. Also venture capital continues to flow into the Bitcoin sphere at an increasing rate. So if I had to decide between up and down, I'd say up.

ya.ya.yo!

ChuckBuck

hero member

Activity: 1372

Merit: 783

better everyday ♥

Before we start dreaming of $700, $7000, Seventeen million, let's focus on cracking $300 and staying above $300.

Seems like a tough barrier to crack this whole year so far... Cry

Just keep expectations and price targets more in line.

Dilla

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

$700? Why $700? That's full rocket booster territory, it will still be going on up! Grin

ssmc2

legendary

Activity: 2002

Merit: 1040

Yeah if we really do see 700 then that means the train is moving along and certainly won't reverse.

Dafar

legendary

Activity: 1330

Merit: 1000

dafar consulting

Going from $300 --> $700 --> $400 within the next few months sounds weird to me. Won't happen.

ensurance982

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Trust me!

Quote from: Elwar on April 30, 2015, 08:02:59 AM

I am not sure that another jump like the rise to $1200 is in the cards.

The huge jumps in the past were based on the idea that we were going to reach critical mass.

I think we have reached it and the adoption rate is steady. We have had so much good news this past year that I can't see anything that would rally people to believe that the price will be several times higher than its current price.

Though I can see a price discovery point when the mining reward halves.

Quote from: 8up on April 30, 2015, 08:12:14 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 30, 2015, 07:55:52 AM

Well, I don't really agree with your hypothesis, but it's as good as any other one around here. This is the speculation forum. But do you mind sharing some more reasons that cause you to believe this?

Actually, there are so many small observations. It's hard to name them all...

First of all, look at the 2011 correction. Besides the bitstamp flash crash (exaggeration) you almost perfectly can align the last 3 or 4 major moves to our current correction. Guess where we are.
No downtrend lasts forever except, there is no left value in a tech, a company or a currency (but then it goes to zero nevertheless). I think the recent investment of more than one major financial player is the clear opposite of "no value left".
Sentiment is overly bearish. All major analysts (see here and on tradingview suspect declining prices). All of them have a big fellowship. Which means most of the market participants should have positioned themselves accordingly. Bulls are ridiculed or ignored alot these days. No one dares to publish a bullish marketperspective. And the bulls in here, who are trolling at the moment, are not the ones with the big bags.
~$220 is an established quadruple bottom. If price would want to go lower, there would be no better time than now. Still it hasn't happend.
It was to expect, that Wallstreet would not pay a premium for entering the market. Since the low in January you can assume big accumulation. This goes hand in hand with investing in companies like coinbase or circle
Bitcoin is slowly warming up with other communities (not just crypto-anarchists and speculants)
Media is overly positive since the beginning of 2015

In Bitcoin terms the doubling of the price is not a big move. Just think of how many people bitcoin have on their radar. And now think of yourself, when you bought in. There is a lag between understanding, the purpose to buy in and the actual act.

I guess you guys represent the both types of bulls there are. You both are rather optimistic or pro-bitcoin, at least, but have different expectations on future price movements. I think both your positions are legitimate and could turn out to be the right one. Thanks for elaborating on your "gut-feeling", 8up!

8up

hero member

Activity: 618

Merit: 500

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 30, 2015, 07:55:52 AM

Well, I don't really agree with your hypothesis, but it's as good as any other one around here. This is the speculation forum. But do you mind sharing some more reasons that cause you to believe this?

Actually, there are so many small observations. It's hard to name them all...

First of all, look at the 2011 correction. Besides the bitstamp flash crash (exaggeration) you almost perfectly can align the last 3 or 4 major moves to our current correction. Guess where we are.
No downtrend lasts forever except, there is no left value in a tech, a company or a currency (but then it goes to zero nevertheless). I think the recent investment of more than one major financial player is the clear opposite of "no value left".
Sentiment is overly bearish. All major analysts (see here and on tradingview suspect declining prices). All of them have a big fellowship. Which means most of the market participants should have positioned themselves accordingly. Bulls are ridiculed or ignored alot these days. No one dares to publish a bullish marketperspective. And the bulls in here, who are trolling at the moment, are not the ones with the big bags.
~$220 is an established quadruple bottom. If price would want to go lower, there would be no better time than now. Still it hasn't happend.
It was to expect, that Wallstreet would not pay a premium for entering the market. Since the low in January you can assume big accumulation. This goes hand in hand with investing in companies like coinbase or circle
Bitcoin is slowly warming up with other communities (not just crypto-anarchists and speculants)
Media is overly positive since the beginning of 2015

In Bitcoin terms the doubling of the price is not a big move. Just think of how many people bitcoin have on their radar. And now think of yourself, when you bought in. There is a lag between understanding, the purpose to buy in and the actual act.

Elwar

legendary

Activity: 3598

Merit: 2386

Viva Ut Vivas

I am not sure that another jump like the rise to $1200 is in the cards.

The huge jumps in the past were based on the idea that we were going to reach critical mass.

I think we have reached it and the adoption rate is steady. We have had so much good news this past year that I can't see anything that would rally people to believe that the price will be several times higher than its current price.

Though I can see a price discovery point when the mining reward halves.

ensurance982

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Trust me!

Well, I don't really agree with your hypothesis, but it's as good as any other one around here. This is the speculation forum. But do you mind sharing some more reasons that cause you to believe this?

NUFCrichard

legendary

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1003

Quote

This is a speculation based only on gut feeling and some minor observations.

Thanks for that, it was a riveting read and showed a lot of insight and analysis on your part...
Why does everyone feel the need to post predictions based on nothing? Yes it might be $700 tomorrow, yes it could be $25 tomorrow, I get it!

Either trade it or just wait and see what happens, no need for a gut feeling thread 40 times a day!

8up

hero member

Activity: 618

Merit: 500

Quote from: DeadCoin on April 30, 2015, 06:53:07 AM

Volume is pathetic even in low 200s, so how do you expect people to buy in 400s or 700s, and even crazier, how do you expect price to stay that high until 2016? I doubt $200+ can hold for much longer, there are 3600 new coins mined every day, while demand and interest in bitcoin are decreasing. More fiat is getting squeezed out of system than that is injected. It is still ridiculously overpriced and still in the process of deflating from the 2013 bubbles, there are simply not enough new suckers and not enough new fresh fiat to maintain the price levels you're proposing.

The market is suppressed for a while now. Bulls simply have forgotten their strength. If we can maintain $200 now, we will easily maintain $400 in a few month (especially, when reward halving comes on the horizon).

DeadCoin

sr. member

Activity: 1246

Merit: 261

★ Investor | Trader | Promoter

Volume is pathetic even in low 200s, so how do you expect people to buy in 400s or 700s, and even crazier, how do you expect price to stay that high until 2016? I doubt $200+ can hold for much longer, there are 3600 new coins mined every day, while demand and interest in bitcoin are decreasing. More fiat is getting squeezed out of system than that is injected. It is still ridiculously overpriced and still in the process of deflating from the 2013 bubbles, there are simply not enough new suckers and not enough new fresh fiat to maintain the price levels you're proposing.

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

it seems a realistic prediction, but we won't see 700 or anything above 500(or even 300 for what it counts...) for quite some time, at least this is what the market is telling to us , now...

goxed

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1006

Bitcoin / Crypto mining Hardware.

Quote from: 8up on April 30, 2015, 06:35:06 AM

We'll see some more hovering around the 200-300 level in the next weeks. After that we'll be reaching ~$700 (quite fast) followed by a correction to the low ~$400s. After that we'll have a boring, but stable time till mid 2016. Good for merchant adoption and inviting your friends to the party,...

This is a speculation based only on gut feeling and some minor observations.

Let the shitstorm begin! Grin

Good 5second entertainment

Satu

full member

Activity: 171

Merit: 100

I hope your gut come true. I have a good laugh while reading this thread

Morecoin Freeman

hero member

Activity: 854

Merit: 503

Legendary trader

Seems legit. Tongue

Topic: Bold statement: Next target is low ~$700s (Awaiting scream of laughter) - page 3. (Read 4468 times)