Bookmaker's predictive mistakes. | Bitcointalksearch.org

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

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1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

Below are just my brief thoughts on the above questions -
1- Hard to get the stats, but the sure answer is - they can be wrong also with their predictions, they are not perfect so to speak
2- Not considering some hidden injuries or situations of the athletes involved or the strategies of the team itself, so giving wrong odds
3- Because that's where the bookie is also earning good money
4- Not really, if you live and breath the sports, you can also spot the mistakes at once
5- Odds - they have their algorithm, but how good they are is the question? What are the criteria considered?
6- Because they don't have the crystal ball, remember even if it is done by AI, still they are blinded with some factors significant in the game
7- For sure, they are also checking the odds of their competitors and alter it, if they need to change it.

AHOYBRAUSE

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Quote from: shasan on September 16, 2024, 12:41:19 PM

Quote from: Findingnemo on August 14, 2024, 03:52:56 AM

Nope, the opposite of it.

Casino can't bend the rules as whatever they want, I mean they could but it might cost their business entirely so they can't just void any bet because someone won big, they can only void if there's an actual glitch or error from the bookmakers but those are rare.

Now crypto casino industry is filled with competition like never before so they don't even have a tiny room to void bets intentionally.

If the error is of the bookmakers and if the void the game then the winner of the game would be a loser. In this case, do you think it is fair for the bookmaker to void the bet. I do not thin it is fair and also many a time the winning might be after several lose and in this situation if the bet void then it would be a crucial for the person who won but void the bet.

Exactly. In these situations the player often gets the bad end of the stick since the TOS protect the house.
But if you play bad odds that were given by mistake at a way too low rate they might not void the bet because their error actually benefits them. As a player there is nothing you can do since you accepted the TOS when registering and playing on the site. You can only hope that bookies handles cases like this with fairness. Void if they have the benefit and void if they hand the disadvantage.

shasan

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Quote from: Findingnemo on August 14, 2024, 03:52:56 AM

Nope, the opposite of it.

Casino can't bend the rules as whatever they want, I mean they could but it might cost their business entirely so they can't just void any bet because someone won big, they can only void if there's an actual glitch or error from the bookmakers but those are rare.

Now crypto casino industry is filled with competition like never before so they don't even have a tiny room to void bets intentionally.

If the error is of the bookmakers and if the void the game then the winner of the game would be a loser. In this case, do you think it is fair for the bookmaker to void the bet. I do not thin it is fair and also many a time the winning might be after several lose and in this situation if the bet void then it would be a crucial for the person who won but void the bet.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on August 14, 2024, 03:52:56 AM

Quote from: betswift on August 12, 2024, 01:43:36 AM

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

Nope, the opposite of it.

Casino can't bend the rules as whatever they want, I mean they could but it might cost their business entirely so they can't just void any bet because someone won big, they can only void if there's an actual glitch or error from the bookmakers but those are rare.

Now crypto casino industry is filled with competition like never before so they don't even have a tiny room to void bets intentionally.

Yep, should have added an addition of TOS being the rules that can be bent or referred to, but of course, as it was said, it should be justifiable in the eyes of the crowd, because otherwise, the reputation of the platform would sink. Thanks for the addition!

Findingnemo

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Quote from: betswift on August 12, 2024, 01:43:36 AM

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

Nope, the opposite of it.

Casino can't bend the rules as whatever they want, I mean they could but it might cost their business entirely so they can't just void any bet because someone won big, they can only void if there's an actual glitch or error from the bookmakers but those are rare.

Now crypto casino industry is filled with competition like never before so they don't even have a tiny room to void bets intentionally.

betswift

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Quote from: stadus on August 12, 2024, 02:54:16 AM

Quote from: betswift on August 12, 2024, 01:43:36 AM

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

But it should be justifiable. I mean, they can't make rules that don't meet the standards. Most sportsbooks are regulated, so they have rules to follow when grading bets, whether it's a win, loss, or void. I think there's already a thread here where someone complained about why their bet was voided, but when other members replied and explained the standard rules, the person was able to understand it. So my point is, bookies won't make a mistake they can't revert or correct, because on their part, that would be a big financial loss or a hit to their reputation if they couldn't justify their actions.

Yeah, I agree, that's a good addition Grin

The reputation of a platform is very important, and doing something that you described would plummet it in case it wasn't regulated/was done not through the rules implied.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 30, 2024, 08:47:23 PM

The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.

I think it natural thing, but it still very rare because the bookie will only assess and provide opportunities based on the performance and strength of the team in having an advantage over the other opposing team.
It just that there are indeed several things that are based on reality or can be concluded if the bookie calculates the chances well but in match there is an unexpected surprise that makes the team with bigger odds win and gives the gambler bigger chance to win.
Incidents like this are very common although they can't be found every time, after all it not mistake but because of surprise that is really beyond anyone expectations including the bookie.
Additionally changes to the odds offered can occur after the match has started, and bookmakers also have the advantage of closing bets to minimise large wins for their customers.

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Quote from: Fortify on August 12, 2024, 02:12:11 PM

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

You have to ask yourself, how do bookmakers survive for so long and pay off all the staff / facilities behind the scenes, if they aren't skimming a decent profit from betting activity. The answer to that should tell you that they are right a lot more often than the players are. It would actually be a good documenting exercise to keep track of various bets and see where they made mistakes, however you can bet that they are analyzing this information too in order to improve. In my very narrow view, I think they tend to have the toughest time and open up the most mistakes when they are taking in game bets - where someone watching the sport might form an opinion of the play style that could give them an advantage over the bets being offered, if you can read it right and find value.

Yep it's right that they are able to retain their jobs and pay their employees also indicates that they are better at predicting outcomes and managing risk than the average bookmaker. I know only a little but I think it is through very careful of working on extensive data analysis backed by expert expertise that display and adjustment of odds, based on betting systems, happens and to such. This gives them a huge advantage over casual publishers who might not have access to standard content or even search tools. On the other hand, for me is that bookmakers are at work nonstop, fine-tuning their systems for handling these in-game bets, making things harder for even savvy punters to have profitable moments.

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For most of those such simple questions, even a Google search would be able to tell you

Quote

How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?

More often than you think, but still in the under-relevant %, that said, when there are thousands of bets a day they do happen.

Quote

2. What is his most common mistake?

Obviously wrong odds, but that doesn't happen in simple bets on the winner, most of them are spotted in handicaps.

Quote

3. Why do high rates work?

It's not about "working" most of them are just about luck, and some are either the result of balancing or a bookie who wants to take advantage of a popular event.

Quote

4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?

Not always but some are, bots that check arbitrage opportunities have fixed some of the issues for bookies and they trigger alarms when something is wrong and can be exploited.

The rest are just a repetition of the previous questions, it's simple, mistakes are made and algorithms are not perfect, but in the end due to legislation in most states, even if they do make mistakes they can still void your bet, so risks for them are minimal because of mistakes, luck is a bigger danger.

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Personally, I've never seen a bookmaker make a big mistake. Let's say I bet on MMA a lot and one player is usually a clear favourite. In most cases this will be the fighter defending a belt, or a fighter with much better score. How are you going to know if they miscalculated? Let's imagine the champion with very high odds loses. Do you think the bookie will not make money from it? For them to look stupid they'd have to lower payment for the contender and actually give low odds to the champ and then witness that champ-underdog destroy his opponent Cheesy

Fortify

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

You have to ask yourself, how do bookmakers survive for so long and pay off all the staff / facilities behind the scenes, if they aren't skimming a decent profit from betting activity. The answer to that should tell you that they are right a lot more often than the players are. It would actually be a good documenting exercise to keep track of various bets and see where they made mistakes, however you can bet that they are analyzing this information too in order to improve. In my very narrow view, I think they tend to have the toughest time and open up the most mistakes when they are taking in game bets - where someone watching the sport might form an opinion of the play style that could give them an advantage over the bets being offered, if you can read it right and find value.

tread93

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Quote from: Baofeng on June 27, 2024, 06:50:46 AM

I don't think that bookmakers makes this predictive mistakes. Remember that they all get their odds on Las Vegas and those who make it, their job is not to predict who is going to win, but to balance the bet the way they see it.

And so if it happens that there is a upset let's say, then it's not their fault or mistakes. It's that how they find the odds and it's up to us players on who we are going to pick based on the odds that is being presented to us. So it might come from all the records they have, algorithms, perhaps by now they are using AI as well. So it will not be a mistakes, it just shows that we really don't know what the outcome will be in a sport betting as sometime a underdog can defy the odds being set by the odd makers.

The way I see these individuals is the same way I look at the waiver wire in fantasy football. Use their guidance as a guideline to run by but always make tailored adjustments based on what you see fit. Often times my gut instincts have been right over what an analyst said.

Weawant

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My interest has been drawn to what book makers over estimate and what they aswell underwater, this experience is literally general as not only book makers but even gamblers at some point do under estimate certain teams only to get surprised by their performance by the end of the games.

There are times casinos will allot huge odds to a team because they perceived their weaknesses only to get shocked by the results they see at the end of a match, the only advantage the Casinos do get often is in the fact that most gamblers do follow the odds allotted by the casinos and that projects their fears so they most likely don't pick this high odds with the mind that it may not come through and they are going to loose their money but for an experienced gambler who has his personal records and statistics may likely still make such pick because they believe but is about to repeat so they record only a few taking actual advantage of such huge odds.

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Quote from: DaNNy001 on August 12, 2024, 01:02:24 AM

That's why we have what is called arbitrage betting, this is the system of using the miscalculations and mistakes of bookmakers to your advantage, but this is something that is very hard to get because these bookmakers take out their time to arrange the odds to their favor
They are also gamblers... bookmakers common mistake from my experience in most cases is not cross checking the odds of other platforms of some particular matches which might give gamblers an advantage to use the arbitrage system

As for betting arbitrage, these are mistakes that are easy to fix on the one hand, and on the other hand, bookmakers easily notice arbitrage. I watched a lot of interviews with bookmaker employees who were placing bets live. According to them, the bookmaker is guided by other bookmakers. Thus, it is somewhat reminiscent of a herd instinct. If your odds for a game are very different from the odds of another bookmaker, this means that a large number of people will want to participate in safe betting arbitrage. But the bookmaker itself easily notices this by the influx of players for one match. However, I wrote about another type of error, namely, a poor forecast of an event.

stadus

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Quote from: betswift on August 12, 2024, 01:43:36 AM

Quote from: stadus on August 12, 2024, 01:40:39 AM

Quote from: Findingnemo on June 27, 2024, 09:03:15 AM

If I am not wrong if there is any mistake find from the bookmakers then all the bets will be voided and the funds better will be refund so the whole concept of capitalizing mistake is not possible at all, the only place where we can capitalize is to make use of the difference in the odds and that's most common but I mentioned about that earlier is the difference amount will be insignificant so better not to focus too much on it.

That’s the kind of advantage they have; they can charge your account for a mistake if it’s already settled or void it if it’s not yet settled. It’s written in the TOS. whether it’s a bug or something else that puts the sportsbook at a disadvantage. In cases like wrong point spreads and odds, those can easily be voided. Sportsbooks have oddsmakers who provide for many sportsbooks, so it can be justified easily without making gamblers think they were scammed or cheated.

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

But it should be justifiable. I mean, they can't make rules that don't meet the standards. Most sportsbooks are regulated, so they have rules to follow when grading bets, whether it's a win, loss, or void. I think there's already a thread here where someone complained about why their bet was voided, but when other members replied and explained the standard rules, the person was able to understand it. So my point is, bookies won't make a mistake they can't revert or correct, because on their part, that would be a big financial loss or a hit to their reputation if they couldn't justify their actions.

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Quote from: stadus on August 12, 2024, 01:40:39 AM

Quote from: Findingnemo on June 27, 2024, 09:03:15 AM

If I am not wrong if there is any mistake find from the bookmakers then all the bets will be voided and the funds better will be refund so the whole concept of capitalizing mistake is not possible at all, the only place where we can capitalize is to make use of the difference in the odds and that's most common but I mentioned about that earlier is the difference amount will be insignificant so better not to focus too much on it.

That’s the kind of advantage they have; they can charge your account for a mistake if it’s already settled or void it if it’s not yet settled. It’s written in the TOS. whether it’s a bug or something else that puts the sportsbook at a disadvantage. In cases like wrong point spreads and odds, those can easily be voided. Sportsbooks have oddsmakers who provide for many sportsbooks, so it can be justified easily without making gamblers think they were scammed or cheated.

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

stadus

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Quote from: Findingnemo on June 27, 2024, 09:03:15 AM

If I am not wrong if there is any mistake find from the bookmakers then all the bets will be voided and the funds better will be refund so the whole concept of capitalizing mistake is not possible at all, the only place where we can capitalize is to make use of the difference in the odds and that's most common but I mentioned about that earlier is the difference amount will be insignificant so better not to focus too much on it.

That’s the kind of advantage they have; they can charge your account for a mistake if it’s already settled or void it if it’s not yet settled. It’s written in the TOS. whether it’s a bug or something else that puts the sportsbook at a disadvantage. In cases like wrong point spreads and odds, those can easily be voided. Sportsbooks have oddsmakers who provide for many sportsbooks, so it can be justified easily without making gamblers think they were scammed or cheated.

DaNNy001

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

That's why we have what is called arbitrage betting, this is the system of using the miscalculations and mistakes of bookmakers to your advantage, but this is something that is very hard to get because these bookmakers take out their time to arrange the odds to their favor
They are also gamblers... bookmakers common mistake from my experience in most cases is not cross checking the odds of other platforms of some particular matches which might give gamblers an advantage to use the arbitrage system

betswift

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Quote from: shasan on August 11, 2024, 10:02:24 PM

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 30, 2024, 08:47:23 PM

The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.

You are right that a mistake or miscalculation by the bookmaker can't be a favor of the player/gambler as the gambler might not be aware of that. I think only a few people who are too expert might be aware of the mistake and might be able to make a profit from the mistake though the mistake doesn't happen now and then.

Yeah, it comes from a greater experience, I believe in that too. And it's so rare that it's not even worth it to try to calculate it or try to go around the system, in my opinion.

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on June 30, 2024, 03:12:25 PM

Well, human beings are not usually above mistakes, and those bookmakers don't make errors frequently because if they do, it will cause a loss for the casino. That is why they do their job diligently to avoid those errors; they always look at the odds at all times, and changes always take place. Some gamblers who luckily come across a mistaken odd and stake on it can make a big profit, but this is not something that can happen frequently.

the house or dealer will certainly win more often than lose, but what you said is true with humans who are not free from mistakes so there is definitely a time when the dealer is wrong and makes them lose and then experience losses but I think the losses they experience are nothing compared to the wins they have achieved. the dealer's job is to manage the game to make it interesting, tense, or fun. but they don't forget their main goal is to make a profit.
for players who don't have a big role of course they can win when they are lucky, because the rare way they win proves that the dealer has full control, so the wins that can be obtained by the player depend on luck. besides that I think you yourself know and realize that the chances of winning that the dealer has are greater than those of ordinary gamblers so it's not strange that many gamblers experience defeat because their chances of winning are smaller than those of the dealer, including gambling that requires skills I think this is the same.

Topic: Bookmaker's predictive mistakes. (Read 541 times)