The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.
You are right that a mistake or miscalculation by the bookmaker can't be a favor of the player/gambler as the gambler might not be aware of that. I think only a few people who are too expert might be aware of the mistake and might be able to make a profit from the mistake though the mistake doesn't happen now and then. 
Topic: Bookmaker's predictive mistakes. - page 2. (Read 541 times)
The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 538
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately.
I don't know what kind of errors they can take advantage of when bookmakers make sure that they do their job well. Just imagine, if they make mistakes and cater to many sportsbooks, it would be a big hit on their reputation and they would eventually struggle. So it's a mistake that cannot happen for them to remain in business. There are times when the odds are wrong, but they can revert or correct it as it has a basis or justification. Other than that, I don't see any kind of mistake that is costly on their part.
Well, human beings are not usually above mistakes, and those bookmakers don't make errors frequently because if they do, it will cause a loss for the casino. That is why they do their job diligently to avoid those errors; they always look at the odds at all times, and changes always take place. Some gamblers who luckily come across a mistaken odd and stake on it can make a big profit, but this is not something that can happen frequently.
This is interesting, but I doubt if the probability of the bookie's error is always presented. I mean, there could be several times when the bookie makes a mistake. however, how big the probability is. that's why up until now I've never looked into ideas like the ones you put forward, we could use them as research material or seek new knowledge, but I'm still hesitant to experiment. the reason is, we at least have a small idea of how gambling bookies work. however, it does not rule out the possibility that some other members have knowledge related to this discussion.
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
If you count as +/- @1.05 up to @1.15 I think there are tons of errors. Bigger errors are really hard. There is a sort of consensus between bookmakers. If you don't agree.. use an exchange and ask your price.
Sometimes there are real errors but... if too big "the bug" they can also not pay your win.
2. What is his most common mistake?
They can go wrong for a minus part. 3. Why do high rates work?
If you mean "high odds" there is a psichologycal aspect to be taken in account. It's looking different @3 vs @10 ...4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
There are some "small" errors they can made. But if these become "bigger" or avoid to exploit high amount of money are just fixed or not awarded. 5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
In football, they can not take in account the time wasted during the match... 6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
If gambling was an exact science, no one could be able to offer such services. How afford someone able to win any bet? Of course bookmaker have also a different money making system that it's not rely only on "Luck".7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).
Technically bookmakers can hedge their position by using other bookmakers or brokers or just a betting exchange. (Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).
But as said before, gambling is not their business. I mean, they are not gambling the money, it's like offering a service and earning a kind of RTP for each bet. Well, rare events can lead to a "jackpot" for bookmaker, but it's well balanced by the money outflow.
Bookmakers don't make mistakes very often, so those who are chasing those mistakes need to know that it's going to be a long and time-consuming process and they should focus on their bets and their research rather than look for bookmakers' mistakes.
One can indeed make good money if a bookmaker makes a mistake and gives a better team higher odds and a team with lower stats and abilities low odds, but this happens maybe a few times in a year or so because I haven't seen this happening a lot throughout my sports betting career.
However, sometimes, we may earn good profit if we bet against the bookmaker, which means that we bet on higher odds despite the side being less favourable and it works, but not all the time.
One can indeed make good money if a bookmaker makes a mistake and gives a better team higher odds and a team with lower stats and abilities low odds, but this happens maybe a few times in a year or so because I haven't seen this happening a lot throughout my sports betting career.
However, sometimes, we may earn good profit if we bet against the bookmaker, which means that we bet on higher odds despite the side being less favourable and it works, but not all the time.
Interesting, to be honest it never crossed my mind about Bookmaker betting prediction errors. as I understand, maybe I was wrong all this time, but let me also share my thoughts. bookies simply provide bettors with a series of options to choose from. in a match, fight or something like that, usually the bookie will provide various options for someone to choose their bet. whatever the type of bet, we are certainly given the option to choose according to our understanding or the results of our research and analysis. although it does not rule out the possibility that there was a mistake made by the Bookmaker. It's just that it never occurred to me to look for mistakes made by gambling bookies.
This is interesting, but I doubt if the probability of the bookie's error is always presented. I mean, there could be several times when the bookie makes a mistake. however, how big the probability is. that's why up until now I've never looked into ideas like the ones you put forward, we could use them as research material or seek new knowledge, but I'm still hesitant to experiment. the reason is, we at least have a small idea of how gambling bookies work. however, it does not rule out the possibility that some other members have knowledge related to this discussion.
This is interesting, but I doubt if the probability of the bookie's error is always presented. I mean, there could be several times when the bookie makes a mistake. however, how big the probability is. that's why up until now I've never looked into ideas like the ones you put forward, we could use them as research material or seek new knowledge, but I'm still hesitant to experiment. the reason is, we at least have a small idea of how gambling bookies work. however, it does not rule out the possibility that some other members have knowledge related to this discussion.
Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately.
I don't know what kind of errors they can take advantage of when bookmakers make sure that they do their job well. Just imagine, if they make mistakes and cater to many sportsbooks, it would be a big hit on their reputation and they would eventually struggle. So it's a mistake that cannot happen for them to remain in business. There are times when the odds are wrong, but they can revert or correct it as it has a basis or justification. Other than that, I don't see any kind of mistake that is costly on their part.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 538
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Bookmarkers usually have dozens of tasks to do because the odds of different matches are always changing every minute, and since those bookmakers are humans too, they are not bound to make mistakes most of the time but since they are professionals, they don't make the mistake of wrong odds computation frequently. Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately.
3. Why do high rates work?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).
The fact that a high odds which was least expected win at the end of the match is not a mistake, that's gambling for you, because in gambling anything is possible, and I don't see anyway why that should be regarded as error, because we have also had scenarios where odds like 1.10 to 1.30 also fail to play when gambled upon. So in that case who are you to blame? Or are you going to call that gamblers error? However, if only you have been opportuned to compare sport games across different casinos, you will notice that it's odds are always either the same or not having big differences, as it seems they are always a product of a global general booker who seems to analyze games and allocate odds according to its current and previous performance. (Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).
I think it is impossible for bookies to make mistakes like you said above because bookies will do everything they can to always be lucky and away from losses.
Bookies must have specifically designed tricks or strategies to minimize big losses on their gambling platforms. And I think bookies are typical of smart and clever people from gamblers because bookies will not want to give up just like that, they have to try to stay profitable and losses will only apply to gamblers.
Bookies must have specifically designed tricks or strategies to minimize big losses on their gambling platforms. And I think bookies are typical of smart and clever people from gamblers because bookies will not want to give up just like that, they have to try to stay profitable and losses will only apply to gamblers.
That will depends on the bookmarker. If they have a good skills, they will not make a wrong prediction so they can wins. If their skills not high, they will make a wrong prediction although they can also wins. But I don't thinks that a bookmarker will makes a wrong prediction too often because that can makes their business bankrupt. If they found one or more wrong prediction, they will search other people who can have a high skills in analyzing so they can back to wins the match. They will not like when their prediction is wrong so they will fixing that matters.
Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.
I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.
I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.
They do make mistakes, I have seen this countless times. Have had bets/lines cancelled for "wrong odds" several times. Always very annoying when the bookmaker makes the mistake and the player pays the price. If I as a player accidentally bet too much or on the wrong side for example they won't let you cancel it, even if you contact the support seconds after and the game doesn't start for another 5 hours.
If the odds are wrong, they should be canceled. This kind of mistake is inevitable, but this is not the kind of mistake I'm referring to. It's a normal mistake that we think we can take advantage of with the sportsbook. In general, I still believe they won't make mistakes that would lead to big losses. Otherwise, sportsbooks wouldn't become a billion-dollar industry.
I would consider a bookmaker's mistake to be a situation in which a player or team with low chances of winning (and therefore high odds of winning) wins and the bookmaker is forced to pay a large winnings to the winner. I can’t prove this very clearly, but it seems to me that this situation happens quite often. In general, if we look at those rare players in sports betting who are consistently profitable in the long term, we will understand that they certainly make money, including from the bookmaker’s mistakes. But during the discussion, I realized that we understand bookmaker mistakes incorrectly. Like it's something dramatic. No, I consider any incorrectly calculated odds to be a mistake.
Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.
To this day, I have not found any errors in the bookmakers that could benefit me in any way.
Perhaps this should occur for players who have a very high betting frequency, because although I play every week, I do not play every day and much less spend hours playing.
My opinion is that the profits are in the small details: Knowing how to control the bankroll, betting on the odds most of the time, but following your instinct when you believe that an "unlikely" team or player has a chance of winning... it is in these moments, when you bet against the predictions of the bookmaker and the majority of players, that you can obtain the best profits.
Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.
I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.
I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.
They do make mistakes, I have seen this countless times. Have had bets/lines cancelled for "wrong odds" several times. Always very annoying when the bookmaker makes the mistake and the player pays the price. If I as a player accidentally bet too much or on the wrong side for example they won't let you cancel it, even if you contact the support seconds after and the game doesn't start for another 5 hours.
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
I want to say more than we expect, but it mostly depends on the league or sports because the bigger and more competitive ones like the EURO Championship, can easily make you fall into their trap odds.They also make frequent mistakes during the early portions of the season, and i've been saying it before, they don't mind making mistakes because they use those to make their odds more accurate.
2. What is his most common mistake?
One of the many mistakes I can recall is probably them setting favored odds on teams that used to dominate the previous seasons and taking all the time they needed to correct the odds even though the team was showing signs of regression halfway through the season.4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
Nope, as you place more bets, the more you'll understand why they've made those mistakes.5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
One of them is whenever there's an unexpected trend between specific matches.6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
I've mentioned it earlier, mistakes help them improve. 
~
Wouldn't really say say it's a mistake? A mistake is when there's a massively big difference between the odds that they wanted to provide towards the real one. That's a mistake. If you're talking about when the higher odds lose to the lower odds player, odds have never been a basis 100% for a match. It just shows that there's a big difference between the two that probably 9 out of 10 games (or something, depending on the odds), the higher odds team would win. I guess you can say this is just an extension of arbitrage but hell in most cases there's really a minimal difference with it. I'd say it's honestly rare for them to make a real "mistake" since, well, that's what they're relying on a living for.
Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.
Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.
You are right, bookmarkers make mistake once a while and if they do they would noticed it fast and fixed the mistake. It was in the year 2020 or there about ans I was in the betting shop and such thing happened and many people won from the mistake that day. And within some hours the problem was fixed. But we don't have to look for bookmarkers mistakes instead play along and try our lucks. Bookmarkers in this days are very much careful in the arrangement of games. So it is very difficult to see such mistakes. But if happened, then gamblers will use the opportunity to win odds. Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.
If I could recollect a little, I think that happened in Scottish lead then between Rangers but I can't seem to remember the opponent. So it happened that it seem the bookmakers realised something was wrong with the way bettors were hitting on the game and staking hugely on it with DNB and other options, they pulled it down after some hours but then smart gamblers had already taken the advantage on the game. It eventually happened that most lucky bettors won and cashed out from it even though some betting companies didn't agree to pay some player full potential winning, claiming the game was pulled down before it started. So it is quite possible for bookmakers to make such mistake but it is very rare.
Edit: Yes I got the information, that match was between Rangers vs Cowdenbeath , it ended 5-1 in favour of Rangers who was mistakenly given above 5 odds against 1+ odd and they had all stats favouring them including head to head. That was in 10 Jan. 2016.
Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.
Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.
You are right, bookmarkers make mistake once a while and if they do they would noticed it fast and fixed the mistake. It was in the year 2020 or there about ans I was in the betting shop and such thing happened and many people won from the mistake that day. And within some hours the problem was fixed. But we don't have to look for bookmarkers mistakes instead play along and try our lucks. Bookmarkers in this days are very much careful in the arrangement of games. So it is very difficult to see such mistakes. But if happened, then gamblers will use the opportunity to win odds. Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.
If I could recollect a little, I think that happened in Scottish lead then between Rangers but I can't seem to remember the opponent. So it happened that it seem the bookmakers realised something was wrong with the way bettors were hitting on the game and staking hugely on it with DNB and other options, they pulled it down after some hours but then smart gamblers had already taken the advantage on the game. It eventually happened that most lucky bettors won and cashed out from it even though some betting companies didn't agree to pay some player full potential winning, claiming the game was pulled down before it started. So it is quite possible for bookmakers to make such mistake but it is very rare.
Jump to: