Answers below:
Which brings me to my questions...
1. Am I being really stupid and optimistic to think this way? How much of a chance/risk do you think it is for the price to not go up any higher in 2014? IMO, it almost seems guaranteed the price will at least hit $1200-$1300/btc sometime next year.... or is there a risk that I'm not aware of?
2. I have a coinbase account and it only lets me buy a max of 50 BTC at a time. Is there a place where I can buy as many as I want w/o any limits?
3. Will I even be able to buy $1mil worth of BTCs? Does it depend on who's selling right at the moment I'm trying to buy some? How does this work?
4. Will I have to pay taxes on capital gains? I don't wanna pay shit to the US gov, how would they know how much I made off BTCs?
I'm thinking of putting an automatic sell order right when BTCs hit $1500 in 2014.... is that too high or should I put a lower limit? I want to guarantee some profit before I get too greedy and potentially lose my dad's money. I figured if I sell at $1500 it would be a nice $400k profit for me, I could quit my job and chill in Miami and Ibiza for a year until I need money again.
Serious advice only please, I'm not fucking trolling
1. (a) The word "stupid" in investing is doing things that are provably incorrect. What you are doing is speculative, not provably incorrect.
(b) Noone can predict the future, so it is unknown what the future price of a coin will be. Personally I think it is likely the value of coins will increase because currently the capitalization of btc is around $10 billion and there is a lot more money than this looking for a good home. I think a capitalization of between $100 and $400 billion can be expected eventually assuming the BTC protocol and cryptography remain unbroken. If they break, everybody loses all their money.
(c) The risks you have are (1) bitcoin crypto is broken, you lose everything (2) world banks/govts attack BTC agressively, possible loss in value temporarily (3) you mishandle your coins (get hacked for example), you lose everything (4) somebody cracks your personal key somehow (never been done except with badly chosen manual keys), you lose everything (5) you enter into a bad transaction or put your coins in a faulty exchange or entrust coins/money to scammer, you lose everything
2. MtGox trades without limit but will not remit to US citizens.
3. Your best bet is to locate a dealer who will buy them for you and buy in limited batches at a time, say $10,000 or $20,000 worth. Make sure the dealer sends them to you. Don't let him hold onto your coins for you. Obviously you will need to master the details of cold storage and using BTC software. Alternatively, if you know a non-US citizen whom you completely trust, they can set up a verified MtGox account and buy the coins for you.
4. The US monitors all wire transfers. If you get a wire transfer to your account they will know. It is unclear whether BTC counts as a currency gain or income under US tax law. So you may owe full taxes. Logically speaking it should be taxed as a currency appreciation because the SEC has deemed it as "money", but there is no telling what the IRS may rule. Expect a ruling sometime in the next few months.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other comments:
* It is very unwise to obtain money under false pretences. You would be well to come clean with any "investors" you have, so they know exactly where their money is going. Violating this basic principle will result in damaging your reputation in ways you can't even imagine.
* Before messing with bitcoins, it is a good idea to learn how they work in detail.