Topic: Brian123321's Sports Betting Picks | All Sports | Full Tracking Inside - page 31. (Read 25757 times)

Locked in Southern Illinois +5

Locked in Morehead st +6.5

Missouri St covers!

Locked in Loyola Chicago +7.5

Looking at line movement thus far and as of now the only game i can see that may become a no play is Southern Illinois.  Loyola Chicago looks like it will move to +7.5 keeping it as a play but as always stuff could change

Locking in Missouri st now at

Missouri St +1.5

March 7

Here are the picks for today.  What i have done is put the calculated spread (my spread) in parentheses.  If the line on covers.com for the game is lower than the line in parentheses at the time of tip off then the game would not be a play.  Ill post updates throughout the day and evening when i lock in a play.  But for the people who are not around then you can take a look and decide if you want to take a chance on the line not moving enough to make it a no play.

3:30pm EST

Missouri St+1 (+0)

6:00pm EST

Loyola Chicago +7 (+6.5)

6:30pm EST

Morehead St +6 (+3.5)

9:35pm EST

Southern Illinois +5 (+4.5)


Those are the games ill be watching today.  Like i said they will all be plays only if the spread listed on covers is equal to or more than the spread in parentheses come game time.  It does not matter that they are all plays at this moment.  It only matters what the lines close at on covers.

I can post the plays earlier, however, there is a chance a play post end up being a no play come to tip off time.  A perfect example of this is yesterday with the monmouth game.  I made a fair warning that if the line was listed below 4 points on covers http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx close to the time of tip off it would not be a play.  It doesnt matter if you can get 4 points at your book or the time of your bet.  It only matters what the line is listed at on this site.

Here is the reason for this . . .

When developing the system i use for NCAAB i used the covers lines when backtracking the plays.  Therefore the lines being used were the closing lines.  That means that earlier in the day the line could have been higher but closed lower.  Believe me when i say this, the closing line means a great deal to my system.

So i can post the plays earlier with the spreads i calculate and you can take an educated guess on whether you believe that line will move to a no play or stay a play.  That is the best i can do.  This is the reason i wait to post plays ~30min before tip off when the lines are very close.  I have to wait and see if it is going to become a no play.

Ill go through the games now.  I will post the games that i most likely will have plays on and ill post the lines that it has to close on or above in order for it to be a play.  From there you have to decide for yourself if you think it will stay a play or not. 

Can you post your picks some early because you are very late I cannot check on this time

So, just to confirm, you now no longer want to have a handicapping contest with me, and you think that a 'square play' means "betting on the favorite and/or the over"? 

Seeing as I clearly stated why I this contest would only include nba and ncaab. And now you pretending to believe the definition of square plays is not what I wrote you have only done one thing to yourself.

Exposed troll is exposed.

I won't be responding to troll until troll publicly posts his own plays. Good night sweet prince.


Toodles!

If you think that a square play means "favorites and overs", then no you do not know what that term means.

Soooooooo...that's an insta-back-down?  SHOCKING!

Let me know if you have any other challenges that you'd like to immediately rescind.

To add on you are calling my ncaab plays square, which I hope you now understand the definition of square, this the reason why in asking you to make nba and ncaab plays. This is not an unreasonable thing to ask.

I don't bet in any of those other sports and only bet ncaab during this time of the year.  There is not enough time left for ncaab to run a month with a constant schedule of games. Also I do do not like the idea of including soccer or tennis bc if the huge money lines.

And before you try and jump all over me I have never once said I can make picks in any other sports than the ones I stated and have clearly stated that i won't post NBA picks bc I can't pick consistent winners there yet. MLB unders, NCAAF, NFL and NCAAB is what I can pick it. I mentioned NBA in case you can make picks there but the other sports I would not care to have included.

Sounds good, although a one week contest doesn't seem very good.  Let's negotiate some ground rules and set up an escrow.

My thoughts:

I agree with the "you can pick as few" games a day part, but disagree with the "as many...as you please" part.  Whoever is losing can just bet every game with no consequences.  I'd suggest putting a reasonable cap on the number of plays/day.

Why limit the betting to NBA and NCAA?  I feel we should include soccer, tennis, all basketball leagues, hockey, and baseball.  Moneylines, spreads, and o/us.  No buying points.

I agree that flat betting is the only fair system.  Furthermore, only "1 unit" bets should be allowed.  On - lines, whatever you need to bet to win one unit, and on + lines, risking 1 unit exactly.  No parlays/teasers/pleasers.

As I said, one month is far too short.  Offhand, I'd say one month sounds like a reasonable time frame.

And of course since you are so secretive about what you are betting with, I have no idea what you'd be looking to wager on this contest.  You'll have to fill me in.

Thoughts?

1. True.  Ill refrain from doing it. I hope you dont make a mistake like i did in the future

2. Absolutely irrelevant.  I dont want the entire forum to know the amount of BTC i have in my accounts.  That would be irresponsible.

3. You continue to refer to plays as "square"  You either do not know what the meaning of a square play is or you are continuing to troll.  I assume both.  My plays are far from "square"  Let me help you out a little bit.  A square play or more commonly referred to as square player is someone who bets on favorites and OVERS.  I have bet on a single favorite during the past 20 days and i dont bet totals.  Again, you have shown your complete lack of knowledge for sports betting.

4. I am have never made a single outrageous claim.  I claim to be hitting over 65% in reality its 72% i claim to have +24 Units in reality i have +24 units.  What i have asked you to do is post your own plays multiple times if you think my plays are square, which you clearly do not know the definition of, and show me how much better you are.  The problem here is you wont.  You wont because you cant.  You cant because you know you're a long term loser in sports betting.  I know this because you spend your time trolling others.

5. Correct.  At this time i cannot.  In order to sell your plays properly you need to establish you can consistently make money.  The best way to do that is to do what i am doing.  Post the plays in a public forum for everyone to see.  Do this long enough and then you can begin selling your plays.

6. I have already done this. You are repeating #4.


Now since i have responded to all of your concerns i have a question of my own that you have yet to do or answer . . . .

I would like you to post your own plays and show that you are indeed better than me.  If you would like to make it interesting and put some BTC down we can do that also.  If you need an incentive to post picks then ill give you an incentive, we can have a contest.  You can pick as few or as many games a day as you please in both the NBA and NCAAB.  Flat betting is the only fair way to go about it.  We can set up a time frame, say beginning Saturday through the conference tournaments and end before march madness.  The last game would be the last game of the last conference tournament.  What do you say?

1.  You've posted multiple times today about how the dog ate your bankroll and you'd like it soooooo much if someone would give you a bunch of BTC.

2.  "Whether I am lying or not" isn't really what someone who is telling the truth says, now is it?

3.  I assure you I am not playing your plays, but if it bothers you that much you can always not post them and not have to worry about it.  Let's be honest, your plays are quite square.

4.  I'm sorry if this seems like harassment to you, but it really isn't.  I'm asking you questions that are relevant to the thread...that you started.  I understand that in an ideal world you could just show up and say "I bet on stuff!" and people would just throw BTC at you, but it doesn't work that way.  If you are making outrageous claims and asking for coins, you have to expect a little scrutiny.

5.  You cannot sell your plays.  If you could, you would. 

6.  This forum is littered with people who claim they can hit over 65% and make 20 units over a 20 days period.  None of them could back it up either.

I dont see where you get begging from?

Whether i am lying or not i would still like to make a big better a nice chunk of coins in the hope of a big tip.  That goes without saying.  Also, what is really amusing is you are most likely playing my plays while also harassing me.  I could be a dick and i could sell my plays and people would pay for them.  Find me another capper who hits over 65% and makes 20 units plus over a 20 day period flat betting.