Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending" - page 13.

CoinCidental

legendary

Activity: 1316

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Si vis pacem, para bellum

I dont believe this theory...........

if it been a ponzi since day 1 ,pirate wouldnt wait until now (judgement day ) to start selling his furniture and making plans to move to another country

he would have designed an exit long long ago .......

there is a few beautiful countries in the you could live in with 500,000+ btcST coins + 30k of his own BTC (like he claims to have )

selling coins slowly @ $10 would leave him millions of dollrs if that was the plan and with that much ,you could be set for life inn a country in south america or south east asia with that much cash and very little chance of being caught

Bascule

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 21, 2012, 04:08:40 AM

Do you have any theories on why he would do this at all? It seems to me that it would make much more sense for him to just disappear with everyone's money. What does stalling buy him?

It's not that calculated. He's been running his scheme for over a year, and came to enjoy his status in the bitcoin community. Just like his "investors", he doesn't want to admit the gig is up.

hgmichna

hero member

Activity: 695

Merit: 500

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 21, 2012, 06:18:06 AM

I guess a working theory is this: Withdrawals were starting to get very close to, or even exceed, deposits. To preserve his profits and try to keep going a bit longer, he reduced the interest rate, figuring this would reduce the withdrawals without significantly reducing deposits. Instead, this backfired, either increasing withdrawals, reducing deposits, or both. This forced him to shut down his operation earlier than he had planned to, so he needs time to wind down all his positions so that he can run with them.

Yes, I also believe this is the most likely process. I predicted it on August 15th already, which makes me wonder why he could not predict it himself. But perhaps he did, and it was just a gamble.

Nonetheless the wind-down procedure can easily take more time than anybody expected, so it shouldn't surprise us that he is trying to play for time. It doesn't seem to work very well though. The first noisy "WHERE ARE MY BITCOINS?" thread is already gathering comments, and there will be more.

hgmichna

hero member

Activity: 695

Merit: 500

Quote from: Micon on August 21, 2012, 04:57:39 AM

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/hey-pirate-its-mondaywhere-are-my-bitcoins-102079

Thread title:
Hey Pirate, it's Monday....WHERE ARE MY BITCOINS ?
Today at 12:10:15 AM

Funny, the whole circus is already starting. I thought his stalling tactics would keep him out of it for about a week.

From now on it will mostly go as expected. There will be a lot of noise, but I also think that after a couple of weeks, maybe a month or two, the thing will be mostly forgotten, and bitcointalk.org will look as usual. Those who lost their money will disappear.

Most painfully, those who have their money in other Ponzi schemes will insist that theirs is legitimate and will defend it just as fervently as the pirate followers defended pirate until today.

JoelKatz

legendary

Activity: 1596

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Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: hgmichna on August 21, 2012, 06:12:33 AM

Time.

If he was over-optimistic when he lowered his interest rates, he may not have expected to have to shut down now and may not have been fully prepared.

He may need lots of time to sort everything out. He may have to cover his tracks, wind down positions, sell a few last bitcoins, do a number of international wire transfers, perhaps even open new bank accounts, which takes some time.

If he intended to flee physically, he may have to sell his accommodation, furniture, etc., buy airline or other tickets, but we don't know whether he will do that.

Anyway, these things take time, and he is certainly worried about being caught.

I guess a working theory is this: Withdrawals were starting to get very close to, or even exceed, deposits. To preserve his profits and try to keep going a bit longer, he reduced the interest rate, figuring this would reduce the withdrawals without significantly reducing deposits. Instead, this backfired, either increasing withdrawals, reducing deposits, or both. This forced him to shut down his operation earlier than he had planned to, so he needs time to wind down all his positions so that he can run with them.

Assuming there's no volume of PPTs to double-dip with, I don't have any other theory.

hgmichna

hero member

Activity: 695

Merit: 500

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 21, 2012, 04:08:40 AM

Quote from: Micon on August 21, 2012, 03:53:04 AM

This should be considered the second stall. Remember, Pirateat40's game now is the infinite stall - from this point forward there will only be vague excuses and very close to zero block-chain verified large payments. There is a small chance of 1 or 2 payouts to a smaller pass throughs to give the appearance of the beginning of payments, but very unlikely.

Do you have any theories on why he would do this at all? It seems to me that it would make much more sense for him to just disappear with everyone's money. What does stalling buy him?

Time.

If he was over-optimistic when he lowered his interest rates, he may not have expected to have to shut down now and may not have been fully prepared.

He may need lots of time to sort everything out. He may have to cover his tracks, wind down positions, sell a few last bitcoins, do a number of international wire transfers, perhaps even open new bank accounts, which takes some time.

If he intended to flee physically, he may have to sell his accommodation, furniture, etc., buy airline or other tickets, but we don't know whether he will do that.

Anyway, these things take time, and he is certainly worried about being caught.

JoelKatz

legendary

Activity: 1596

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Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: farfiman on August 21, 2012, 04:28:57 AM

There isnt a large number of insured PPTs or even low cost PPts to be had.

If the total value of all outstanding tradeable PPTs isn't that high, or the trade volume in them is fairly low, then that would prove that this isn't happening. In that case, I'm baffled by this.

Micon

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1014

FPV Drone Pilot

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/hey-pirate-its-mondaywhere-are-my-bitcoins-102079

want bitlane on DD radio on Wed.

elux

legendary

Activity: 1458

Merit: 1006

From: [CLOSED] Imsaguy's PPT @ 7%

Quote from: imsaguy on August 20, 2012, 08:40:21 PM

Interest payments were made electronically (redeposited) but not actually sent out.

Was this standard operating procedure for the pass throughs?

This is another signature ponzi move. Have some context:

Quote

The regular payment of so-called dividends induces investors to bring friends, family members, or business colleagues into the scheme and to put up additional funds themselves now that they are convinced of its veracity.

The operators will also persuade you, with little effort, to "roll over" your "profits" into another investment cycle, so your actual return ends up being back on paper only.

They may decide to provide you with just "statements" showing you your profits rather than sending out cheques,
but the receipt of a cheque in the mail seems to generate more enthusiasm for participants, and it ultimately makes it back to the con at any rate.

This kind of setup relies on keeping his victims from knowing they are being cheated for as long as possible so others can be lured in.

...

Mark Fleming
Consumer Protection Lawyer

http://www.crimes-of-persuasion.com/Crimes/InPerson/MajorPerson/ponzi.htm

Squall1066, see: http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme.

squall1066

copper member

Activity: 2310

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Sticking my neck out in here to ask something really noobish "what the hell is a ponzi?" LOL
I been lurking around posts hopeing I could just read it somewhere without exposing myself as thick!
But you all seem to know what everyting is LOL.

I understand what is going on with BS&T ATM and only a few of the "banks" listed here actually claim to be a pirate pass through.
there is someting i'm obviously missing, and would seek wisdom here if I may please.

farfiman

legendary

Activity: 1449

Merit: 1001

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 21, 2012, 04:17:13 AM

Quote from: farfiman on August 21, 2012, 04:14:50 AM

Selling 1000 ppts or even a few thousand would be small change for pirate- dont' think it would be worth the effort.

That's why I suggested he held and is selling "a large number" of PPTs. The 1,000 BTC worth of PPTs was an example of a single transaction he might make. This is something he can only do if he has a reasonably large window where he doesn't have to make any payouts but won't create a panic by not making payouts. This is precisely what he has created.

There isnt a large number of insured PPTs or even low cost PPts to be had.

JoelKatz

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1012

Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: farfiman on August 21, 2012, 04:14:50 AM

Selling 1000 ppts or even a few thousand would be small change for pirate- dont' think it would be worth the effort.

That's why I suggested he held and is selling "a large number" of PPTs. The 1,000 BTC worth of PPTs was an example of a single transaction he might make. This is something he can only do if he has a reasonably large window where he doesn't have to make any payouts but won't create a panic by not making payouts. This is precisely what he has created.

farfiman

legendary

Activity: 1449

Merit: 1001

Selling 1000 ppts or even a few thousand would be small change for pirate- dont' think it would be worth the effort.
Only other 2 reasons for stalling is :

1) He's on the road and once to distance himself as much as possible.
2) He's a Sadist son-of-a-bitch.

I don't believe either one is true.

JoelKatz

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1012

Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: Micon on August 21, 2012, 03:53:04 AM

This should be considered the second stall. Remember, Pirateat40's game now is the infinite stall - from this point forward there will only be vague excuses and very close to zero block-chain verified large payments. There is a small chance of 1 or 2 payouts to a smaller pass throughs to give the appearance of the beginning of payments, but very unlikely.

Do you have any theories on why he would do this at all? It seems to me that it would make much more sense for him to just disappear with everyone's money. What does stalling buy him?

I can think of only one thing, and it's very disturbing. Perhaps Pirate himself holds a large number of PPTs. Consider:

1) Someone deposits 1,000 BTC with Pirate.

2) Pirate uses those 1,000 BTC to buy PPTs. He gets those 1,000 Bitcoins back anyway.

3) Now, after he announces no more payouts, he sells those PPTs. They're trading at 70% of face anyway. So he gets 700 BTC.

He can only do this if he suspends withdrawals because otherwise, selling PPTs will reduce his income stream (it runs this in reverse, but that can't happen with payouts suspended). But he can buy PPTs for free, and so long as he isn't making any payouts, he can sell them and keep the proceeds.

You can work out the consequences for yourselves.

Micon

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1014

FPV Drone Pilot

[21:04]    Trading vs Shutting Down is a much harder than just clicking a button. There is A LOT of money moving around and I want this done as orderly as possible. The process began last night and has been happening all day but its not something that happens over night. The repayment will begin with the earliest investors first, but its tricky cause some of them now run PPT accounts which isn't fair to some. When coins being to move I'll let everyone know. BTW, No you can not buy your way to the front, so stop asking.
[21:17]    I'm handling the process as fast as possible. At no point did I say it would be fast and easy, I said it would be done. Thanks for your patience, I'm always watching. Stay tuned.
[21:19]    Trading coins from hands to hands is not the same as trading out the coins to be returned.
[21:20]    I am assuming you ca not elaborate, yet, pirateat40. But thanks for the update
[21:21]    ErebusBat, the more I talk the more questions, emails and pm's I get.
[21:23]    I can't be everyone's best friend and I'm sorry if I step on toes, but I'm wanting things to go as fast as you guys do.
[21:25]    Now, back to your regularly scheduled trolling.

seems to be from today / got this from Maged's thread in important announcements https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-is-closing-101339

This should be considered the second stall. Remember, Pirateat40's game now is the infinite stall - from this point forward there will only be vague excuses and very close to zero block-chain verified large payments. There is a small chance of 1 or 2 payouts to a smaller pass throughs to give the appearance of the beginning of payments, but very unlikely.

hgmichna

hero member

Activity: 695

Merit: 500

I lliked this one (excerpt from IRC chat):

[2012-08-17 16:42:34] @pirateat40 - you need a small number of bigger depositors
[2012-08-17 16:42:57] exahash, nah, I'm done. I need some family time.
[2012-08-17 16:43:22] When I finally announced the closure you don't know how good it felt.

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: gene on August 20, 2012, 07:44:56 PM

What is this about charity? If pirate was promising to give charity, then that's on the top of the list of a scam-artist's most reliable tools.

5K BTC bet made. Nanotube is escrowing 10K BTC awaiting the decision. Here's the agreement:

- https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1013607

gene

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 20, 2012, 07:14:47 PM

So far, spot on:

Quote from: koin on August 06, 2012, 03:06:07 AM

Quote from: Vladimir on August 06, 2012, 01:15:17 AM

One thing I am looking forward to see is how, once ponzi collapses, some/many of it's victims will defend pirate and his lieutenants and blame everyone else but them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome . I have a hypothesis, this it what will happen, now gotta wait and see if practice will validate the theory.

perhaps it will be a slow, extended flameout?

week 1: "it wasn't a ponzi that collapsed. the funds are all still there, just that bs&t doesn't have access to them until [some future event] occurs."

week 2: "we aren't getting interest anymore but none of our funds were lost. just waiting for the green light to withdraw! Grin

"

week 3: "i sure hope pirate is ok. he hasn't updated anything. his 5k went to charity already so that was unexpected."

week 4: "with all these angry people, i'ld remain incommunicado as well. wouldn't you?"

week 5: "there's still no evidence it was a ponzi you guys! fud fud fud that's all you do."

week 5: "it couldn't have been a ponzi. he was making 10% profit every week, people were getting their payments, every week!"

week 6: "how the hell did he get hacked? fml! well, at least that proves it wasn't a ponzi!"

week 7: "why did i keep rolling over the payouts? i would only be down 65% instead of it being a total loss. dumb dumb dumb!"

week 8: "someone should have kept his wine glass in vegas, they can get dna from that you know."

What is this about charity? If pirate was promising to give charity, then that's on the top of the list of a scam-artist's most reliable tools.

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: Micon on August 20, 2012, 06:20:52 PM

(a few other posts of little substance / full text here: http://www.bitbin.it/MKzYy6Bi ) [/i]

[2012-08-20 18:07:26] Today is the start of a busy week guys, i'd love to answer all the 200 pm's but can't. I'm around and you'll know when things start to move.
[2012-08-20 18:07:30] pirate out

So far, spot on:

Quote from: koin on August 06, 2012, 03:06:07 AM

Quote from: Vladimir on August 06, 2012, 01:15:17 AM

One thing I am looking forward to see is how, once ponzi collapses, some/many of it's victims will defend pirate and his lieutenants and blame everyone else but them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome . I have a hypothesis, this it what will happen, now gotta wait and see if practice will validate the theory.

perhaps it will be a slow, extended flameout?

week 1: "it wasn't a ponzi that collapsed. the funds are all still there, just that bs&t doesn't have access to them until [some future event] occurs."

week 2: "we aren't getting interest anymore but none of our funds were lost. just waiting for the green light to withdraw! Grin

"

week 3: "i sure hope pirate is ok. he hasn't updated anything. his 5k went to charity already so that was unexpected."

week 4: "with all these angry people, i'ld remain incommunicado as well. wouldn't you?"

week 5: "there's still no evidence it was a ponzi you guys! fud fud fud that's all you do."

week 5: "it couldn't have been a ponzi. he was making 10% profit every week, people were getting their payments, every week!"

week 6: "how the hell did he get hacked? fml! well, at least that proves it wasn't a ponzi!"

week 7: "why did i keep rolling over the payouts? i would only be down 65% instead of it being a total loss. dumb dumb dumb!"

week 8: "someone should have kept his wine glass in vegas, they can get dna from that you know."

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Topic: Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending" - page 13. (Read 119665 times)