miscreanity: in defense of Vandroiy, the imminent collapse of bitcoin theory has the advantage of not being economic nonsense. If you're entering a period of hyperinflation, 7% is actually great rate. Vandroiy apparently doesn't believe that it wins Occam's razor, but it at least explains the observations. I don't think it's an intentionally cynical theory, it just happens to be a viable theory.
Alternative theories--say, that shadowy buyers are willing to pay substantial premiums for bitcoins week after week--don't really make sense because you have to buy back into bitcoin to repay the loans, and then some. It also runs into a problem that Pirates supporters emphasize how 100% legal he is (even though he used to joke about money laundering early on). Such transactions would look a helluvalot like structuring.
I've had Vandroiy on ignore for quite a while now, although I may sneak a peak based on what you brought up. Are you referring to a Bitcoin return at 7% being great during fiat hyperinflation, or are you suggesting Bitcoin is going into HI? Either way, please clarify as to whether you mean price increase or expansion of money supply.
Ok - for the premium buyers, it doesn't have to be much of a premium, or any at all. And they don't have to be shadowy either. As long as the relative value of Bitcoin continues to rise due to capital inflows from external demand, Pirate can acquire at
any price and be assured gains. By a loose estimate, the past two months have seen about 7% weekly gains in price. Curious...
Check the math - from late May to now, 10 weeks since $5:
1.07^10=1.967
1.967*5=9.835
The price right now at Gox? Just shy of $9.80
"i was like the boy that cried wolf. but there was a wolf." - harry markopolos "madoff whistleblower"
harry markopolos is an investigator who spent ten years trying to expose Bernie Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme that scammed an estimated $18 billion from investors.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62L7VxMDg68The difference, from
Wikipedia:
Harry M. Markopolos (born October 22, 1956) is a former securities industry executive and independent financial fraud investigator for institutional investors and others seeking forensic accounting expertise. He has received public acclaim for uncovering evidence over a period of nine years that Bernard Madoff's wealth management business was actually a massive Ponzi scheme.
Micon has not shown anything but circumstantial claims, often fitting patterns out of context. The same goes for everyone else so far. It isn't without reason, just without evidence.
Further:
He also couldn't find any evidence the market was responding to any Madoff trades, even though by his estimate Madoff was running as much as $6 billion—far more money than any known hedge fund even then. In Markopolos' mind, this suggested that Madoff wasn't even trading.
The evidence is strongly in favor of Pirate on this one, especially with what happened three weeks ago. In addition to the persistent stability since the beginning of 2012, there's a greater likelihood that Pirate
has been using the funds for arbitrage and the other purposes he lists than running a scam.
Micon could take a few steps back from zealotry and compile a list of 'high risk' investment opportunities instead of making assertions one way or the other, or a new forum subcategory as MNW & Frankie suggested. Though I have to admit, he and team Ponzi have been a good amount of entertainment the past few days. It's always good to rehash the concepts at times as well.