Topic: BTC 100K FOR 2024 ! - page 3. (Read 2211 times)

I expect Bitcoin to rise to its speculated levels between $100K and $150K in the nearest future, but certainly not this year, and it's for obvious reasons. I've made a series of analyses about this on the forum and many times offline since April even when the bullish trend was still so strong. It's the same result I get with both technical and sentimental analyses (investors will). And it's not about the fact that it's too early to ascertain as you mentioned, that's what it would do and you can take my word for it. The only thing that could make it move so high is very positive news like say China has lifted its ban on the coin...lol, which I don't see feasible this year. The usual macro and micro economies and data would be playing their effects as usual but the impact would always be minimal as the market would continue to weigh it appropriately as it has been doing since it hit the first ATH of 2023.

Extensively, I expect it to move within $28.5K and $32k for now, and even if $32k is breached upwards, there are other strong barriers at $35k and 37K waiting for it this year. In a nutshell, I don't see it moving above $40K this year, talkless of 100K. But some dangerous bullish run is expected around April and May 2024, and the reason is because of the halving tradition that is awaited. People would not want to miss out anymore, and it could cause a ripple effect that might get Bitcoin to $100K or almost in a few months after.

Of course, you can plot out various scenarios, and even though some of us might be selling BTC every $2,500 that the BTC price goes up, others might have smaller increments and others might have larger increments, and of course, the increments should actually get larger as the BTC price goes up based on percentage considerations.

So for example, you could have sell orders planned for $85k-ish 95k-ish, $125k-ish, $145k-ish  $185k-ish, $245k-ish and perhaps at some other locations.. and some of those could be set in advance - even though if you do not have very many of them, they can be set up manually when the price starts to approach those kinds of price ranges... and the total amount of sales (in terms of what the percentage is) could be in either direction.. and if you are kind of inclined to error on the side of selling less, then you can project out those prices and see what it looks like if you were to take a more aggressive selling approach as compared with taking a whimpier approach (and I don't mean whimpy to be denigrating..)

Of course, if you project out the range that shows more aggressive versions and whimpier versions, then you could surely end up pulling the trigger somewhere in the middle or maybe you do end up carrying out the whimpier version, but you likely will feel better if you think through it in advance and you realize that you have already accepted that you need to do something and the whimpier approach would be an easier threshold to cross as compared with the more aggressive approach might be harder to execute, even if you at least see what it looks like on paper (when you project it out).

My sell increments now are about every $1k, and
about every $1,500 for BTC prices between $40k and $55k,
then about every $2,000 for BTC prices between $55k and $70k,
then about every $3,000 for BTC prices between $70k and $100k,
then about every $3,300 for BTC prices between $100k and $120k, and
then about every $5,000 for BTC prices between $120k and $150k.

I have not established sell orders above $150k - but you can see the pattern that I already have, and you might well realize that I prefer the employment of a kind of incrementalism, but hey I have already been over-allocated in BTC ever since 2015.. and it is not like I sold very many along the whole way, even though I have a systemic practice of selling small amounts .. that allows me to feel a bit better when the BTC price seems to inevitably correct.. and sure, my increments and spreads have gotten larger throughout the years.. both in terms of quantity and also in terms of percentages, too.  In other words, my orders are filling quite a bit less frequently than they did when i first started, yet at the same time, I do sometimes end up reverting back to tighter buy and sell orders, especially in recent times with what I considered to be a surprise and somewhat unprecedent amount of correction that took BTC prices so far below the 200-week moving average that caused me to get more involved in my buy/sell orders than I had previously thought that I would be.


Of course, I am a bit older than many of the folks in these parts (not everyone, but many), and so when I got into BTC in late 2013, I had already spent quite a bit more than 20 years building an investment portfolio.. so by the time I got into bitcoin, I had funds that were already pretty sufficient to sustain me.. but part of my goal was to be able to attempt to match the size of my various other investments (especially my 401k) with my BTC investments, but I thought that it might end up taking 10-20 years before my BTC investment might reach the same size as  the majority of my other investments; however, even though I made some mistakes in bitcoin, my BTC holdings largely ended up coming close to parity of the size of my other investments in early to mid-2017 depending upon how the measurements are made.. and even when BTC went up in late 2017 and corrected back down in late 2018, my BTC investment still largely remained of a value that was quite a bit higher than all of my other investments. so with BTC I pretty much reached my investment goal (in terms of dollar value) within less than 4 years, and a lot of that were bonuses and icing on the cake.. because I did not structure my investment into BTC in any kind of a way that I felt that I had to get those kinds of outrageously high returns.  Largely I hoped that my BTC would at least appreciate around 5% to 6% per year, which had been my historical average with my other investments over the previous 20 years, so I did not feel that I had any kind of a problem to continue to get on average around 5% or 6% per year with some down years and some up years but still averaging out to be around 5%/6%.

Of course, we can look back and see that bitcoin may well have gotten around 2x every year - even though I consider with some of my various mistakes along the way, I am really only counting a return of about 75% per year.. .. and maybe I am not really calculating very accurately, but I don't really care that much.  I mean the fact of the matter is that I started out with some BTC average prices of around $1k, but then I got my average down to below $500 per BTC, but then I made mistakes, and so I like to consider my current average cost per BTC to still be around $1k.. and using $1k per BTC makes it easier to calculate that my BTC holdings had gotten to 69x in late 2021, but corrected back down to 15.5x in late 2022, and currently are around 29x.. and so fucking what that they were volatile, they are still way up as compared with anything else that I hold..

Maybe on average all of my other non-BTC investments (traditional investments such as equities, property, commodities and cash equivalents) might have doubled in value between 2013 and 2023.. but my BTC did a 29x.. so that no matter how you slice it, the BTC is way out performing any other investments, and I really do not expected that there is any kind of strong case that BTC prices are going to correct further from here.. but even if they do, so what?  I still have a pretty strong cushion, just like anyone else who has been in bitcoin for a decently amount of time and who have been mostly erroring in on the side of holding and accumulating and maybe just selling relatively small amounts of BTC when BTC prices go up.. which they seem to have a lot of good chances to continue to go up.. in this cycle and in future cycles.
 

Even though your selling plan does sound pretty conservative, maybe you are not really in a place to sell very much of your BTC?  I don't know.  You have to decide whether it is worth it or not, and if you planned strategy is a good one or if there might be some way that you might be able to tweak your strategy.

And my the way, your use of the word "crypto" bothers me.  Fuck shitcoins.  I hope that you are not distracted and diluting your funds, your energy and your brain power with nonsense scams.. because it seems like a BIG waste of time, and all of my shitcoin holdings are less than one percent of my total crypto investment, so currently I have about 0.62% of my total crypto portfolio in shitcoins, about 2.2% in cash and about 97.18% in bitcoin.... and in my overall investment portfolio, right around 75% is in crypto (including the cash that I have dedicated in that), and therefore 25% is in non-BTC assets, such as stocks index funds, property, cash equivalents like bonds and commodities...   Even if my BTC were to go to zero, my non-BTC assets are enough to allow me to sustain my standard of living (of course, I live a bit better because of bitcoin).. but I have enough to pay my expenses without my bitcoin investment... which was largely the case when I started investing into bitcoin, I ONLY invested extra into BTC.. I did not really take away from my already existing investments in order to invest into bitcoin, even though I mostly stopped adding to my non-bitcoin investments...except for some real property acquisitions.
 

I think that I answered this.  I would like to estimate my profit levels to be something like 29X.... since I like to use $1k as my average cost per BTC.. and it is somewhat easier to calculate and to estimate it by using that kind of a ballpark number... which I think it is a fair representation.


hahahahaha.

I don't think so.

In 2017, many bitcoiners were dreaming for $10k, and then quite a few of them did not know what to when the dream was reached and surpassed.  In 2017, I had actually thought that $3k to $5k would be the top, even though sure, I did not sell very many BTC even when BTC prices shot way past $5k and did another 4x after that.

The dream and common expectation of $100k did not really come until the next cycle.. and maybe sure 2019/2020 and 2021.. with 2021 really focusing on that number.. including the influence of Stock to flow.. and surely those stock to flow ideas including easily surpassing $100k were not unrealistic, but they just did not end up happening, as we know.. and currently, it seems to be quite whimpy to be focusing on $100k or even thinking that $100k will be the top.. even though sure, there are no guarantees... but focusing on $100k seems a wee bit whimpy and/or maybe under estimating a potential top for this cycle.. or even a realistic place to be taking meaningful amounts of profits...

.. .. but hey whatever, do what you like.  I recall so many guys saying how rich they were going to be if BTC were to hit $1k in 2015/2016.. and as we know $1k was a very whimpy number and not a very smart place to be selling your BTC... so quite of few of those guys might have made some fiat, but they missed out on a lot of BTC profits due to their overly anxious selling too much too soon.


I cannot really disagree with you here, Reatim.. It does not sound like you will be selling too many too soon.. but hopefully you do not feel regrets either .. because none of us can really know how these matters might play out.. we might get $1 million or more in this cycle, or we might not even end up breaching our current $69k ATH.. so I am not going to proclaim NOT to prepare for any scenario, while at the same time, one of the more common errors is that guys fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP... that's why we still ONLY have less than 1% of the world's population that hold any significant amount of bitcoin, and maybe even some of the current holders are also under-allocated.


There is still a lot of bitcoin adoption that is still to occur.  There is not a lot of bitcoin to be mined ... even though sure, there will be block rewards until 20140.. but even now the block rewards are shrinking by quite a lot each four years because the amount of bitcoin left to mine is not very much when measured in terms of how many BTC have already been mined and are in circulation (even though sure there are likely the private keys to several million bitcoin that have either accidentally or purposefully been lost).

I do not expect such a price increase for the end of this year. There will be corrections and Bitcoin's rise will be gradual. This form of ascension also means that it rises with firmer steps. There will always be speculations, but prices like 100k 150k are very high. We will go up to these prices, but it is still early.

What we need to do is collect as many Bitcoins as needed before reaching the Bitcoin target. We're talking about time, but no one knows how soon Bitcoin will rise. That's why we should increase the amount of Bitcoin we have at every opportunity.

If bitcoin follows the current market history then there's a possibility that we will see it increase threefold like what it did last bullrun so there's a possibility that bitcoin will go more than just a 100k but I could be wrong though, I don't know where you got your notion that 2024 is going to be the last bullrun because afaik there's still a lot of bitcoin yet to be mined.

Bitcoin's volatility has spawned various speculations about its future price, at least until the close of 2023 at the earliest. What if I think maybe a Final bullrun at 150K, anyone can speculate based on the level of confidence in the potential generated by Bitcoin in the future. Then what have you prepared to welcome the bullrun, of course it will be very helpful to increase the number of your wealth list if you have collected Bitcoin little by little before the moon shines again. Logic that can't be denied, investors who already own Bitcoin will certainly expect Bitcoin to reach its highest price soon.

If you can manage to keep your funds till whole time of 2024 then you will celebrate with us then but if you are just posting this but not willing to Keep holding , then there is nothing waits for you when we finally break that 100k , since 2017 , this has been a dream for every bitcoiner to see that range so if we are blessed that the bull will serve us what we are waiting , then indeed that 2024 will be the year  But it is not the Final Bullrun that you are calling , because that is just
 another Bullrun of many to come , trust Bitcoin and you will see what this can bring you

actually it is 10-20% of my total funds that I was planning but depend on how much bitcoin will reach to cover my target amount to take out , hope it will be lower percentage than that.
for that I truly admire you , carrying to sell that very small amount from your folio? you seem to be completely financial stable at all cost of living  

but me that have just enough to sustain daily living (with small extra to invest for Bitcoin and for emergency cases) i rely more on my crypto funds for my better future.
yet those are best decision as what we are seeing in bitcoin price now , wondering  how much is your total profit as this we speak lol

If the Halving Bitcoin has a price of more than $ 60K, for the price of decline after Halving must fall at the price of $ 40K- $ 50k if the macro ecnomy states good growth, I try to assume it, then then $ 100k can be possible to be achieved By Bitcoin.

But yes, if re -considering with the situation today is still like this, I also think it will be very difficult Bitcoin to reach the price level that high, 2025 is normal and following the 4 -year Bitcoin cycle is the target of the same time for the formation of a new ATH.
But if you think and calculated continuously it will make you dizzy, the mindset that I instill is, no matter when bullrun is when it happens and does not care when Bitcoin touches Bitcoin to its highest level, for sure for me is to keep accumulating Bitcoin today , because this is still a fairly large discount from the previous highest price.

Yes.. it is up to you whether you sell 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 100% or some other amount - and many times it is not wise to sell 100%, even when you consider that there are pretty strong odds that you are at the top.

I personally don't expect to sell more than 50% at any one price location - absent some really strong worldly happenings - and really, I am at such a point in my bitcoin holdings management that I am more driven by considering various expenses that I might have rather than trying to insure for volatility risk--- even though many members have likely already heard that I have had an ongoing practice of selling around 1% of my BTC for every 10% that the BTC price goes up .. and I started such practice when bitcoin was in the upper $500-ish price range.. and surely these days, I believe that I am selling less than 0.5% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.. as a kind of BTC portfolio management that makes it more easy to never run out of either bitcoin or cash. 

Part of my "issue" was that in late 2014, I had come to the decision that my BTC accumulation target was going to be around 10% of the size of my then quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and I had largely met that 10% target by the end of 2014 - however, since 2015 was mostly a down (or flat year) for Bitcoin, I ended up continuing to invest into bitcoin throughout 2015 (even though I also had some cashflow issues in 2015 that interfered with how much I was able to invest into bitcoin), and by the end of 2015, my investment into bitcoin had largely gotten to about 13.5% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and because I had overinvested in bitcoin, I found it justifiable to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up.. and I created various formulas that largely allowed me to sell parts of my holdings for as low of prices as $250 based on the BTC being in profits, and even thought the totality of my BTC holdings were not in profits until the BTC price would have been over $500, but the ability to sell some small amounts of BTC based on my formulas were based on some of my BTC being in profits that I had bought in the $200 prices in 2015 and at other price points below $500. 

So I had a variety of formulas and even projections regarding what I would do at various price points as the BTC price went up, and largely my tweaking along the way ended up changing what I actually did at a later time as compared to what I had been projecting that I was going to do.. so for example, I recall that my early to mid 2016 projections had me selling up to 40% of my BTC stash at various points along the way if the BTC prices went up to $10k, but the reality of the matter was that when BTC prices shot up to $19,666 in 2017, I had only sold somewhere in the ballpark of 10% to 15% of what would have been the size of my early 2016 BTC holdings.

There are ways to project out what you are going to do, and I don't have any problems with that, and there are ways to tweak your plan along the way, without necessarily failing/refusing to "do the right thing," and being able to live with both your attempts to follow your earlier trajectory while at the same time allowing the facts and developments to guide you into plans that follow how the facts are evolving rather than what they are theorized to be in the earlier trajectories.. and surely some guys might end up having regrets about holding onto more of their BTC than they wished they would have had held onto, especially when the BTC price ends up dipping anywhere between 70% and 85% from the high points... so there are choices and trade-offs in regards to attempting to carry out any plan (including deciding whether or not it would be good to tweak such plan at various points along the way).


I think that also part of my point was that if I had compared the performance of my BTC investment between late 2013 and late 2016, I would have been looking like a loser for most of that time, and the superiority of my choices to allocate (and overly allocate) into BTC did not really start to show themselves until very late 2016 and early 2017, and then even with the correction in 2018 and other crash correction in 2020, my choices to allocate into BTC still had 5x to 50x better performance than the best of my peers.. and of course, BTC has been volatile, but it still likely takes a long before it shows its superiority - including that there is likely quite a bit of ambiguity in last few years, too... so it may well be easy to get distracted when showing short term performances... and many times even with other choices in life, the compounding effects likely start to show themselves 5-10 years down the road.. or even longer than that in several cases.


I doubt that there is a need for " huge amount of money to be poured into bitcoin" (fuck shitcoins) in order for BTC's price to go up considerably to $100k and beyond..

Sure if the BTC price is going to reach $1 million in this cycle, then maybe in that case a "huge mount of money" might need to be poured into it in order to reach $1 million per BTC... perhaps? perhaps?  but even $1million per bitcoin is merely double the market cap of gold, and many of us already recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is likely in the neighborhood of 1,000x better than gold, but it still could take 50 to 200 years before bitcoin reaches 1,000x gold's market cap.  Not easy to know about some of these kinds of adoption matters and also the various likely ongoing battles along the way.

I also think 100k won't be until 2025 at the earliest, because no one knows at what price the bull run will start. Maybe before the halving the price will fall hard again like it did in 2020. Then 100k will definitely not happen quickly. If the cycle does repeat, it will take some time for the price to start rising after the halving.

Because of the Bitcoin halving for sure it is going to be a potential 100k$ but in the past pump of Bitcoin, we cannot expect a big pump right after the halving so I assume that the Bullrun is going to happen around 2024-2025, or possible could be at the end of 2024, Bitcoin is already on a big momentum in the market and it's already getting started to slow gain its momentum in the market, from the last drop around 15k$ we already see it reach 31k$ in the past week which is a very good sign that we are on the right track on Bitcoin halving, it is only the matter of time, were just gonna need a catalyst something like Bitcoin halving to trigger the market is for sure institutions, companies, etc, is going to start buying bitcoin as well. To reach 100k$ were gonna need a huge amount of money to be poured into cryptocurrency or Bitcoin we could trigger that after the Bitcoin halving since a lot of people are gonna want to get a piece of that Bitcoin, also compared to the past years and months Bitcoin adaptation already skyrockets and we are well promoted to a lot of countries and already adapted by even bank platforms so Im expecting that is it going to be a huge pump compared to the last all-time high.

I forgot not to explain the detailed duration, that here is once every 3 months does not mean that the comparison is seen from the profit after sale. The point is only as a holder per 3 months and comparing the results of people who bet.


Despite all that, I understand that the short time above is still not enough to prove a big profit, even if you have a not-so-good cycle. But the fact is we stick to the bitcoin trust. Even though we are often disappointed when we see market conditions that are in the red, it is extraordinary for us, generally investors, who know the potential for a bear market, to be able to give a little breath in the future. We and some people still have that hope that for the next 5 years bitcoin can still be profitable.
In the first few months they will embark on a painful journey, doubting, feeling the decisions they have taken are wrong and blaming others for giving them the doctrine. But that's a normal mental condition and the more we persist the more it forms a habit to accept reality. That's the momentum holding Bitcoin, and for anyone to experience it in ways and conditions that always feel guilty.

Therefore, I do not let go of what has become my responsibility, by continuing to convince them, giving directions after directions so that they get used to not responding to mainstream news that tries to bring down the grip. As we know, a family that tries the investment world will expect more profits than it should.

I may consider selling sad to say mate , but not as much as others will , there is something that I wanted to buy and that had been my target plan since I started Holding my bitcoins and that will happen if bitcoin reached 6 digits, but this is just small percentage of my Holdings as I know that there are more way to come for our precious bitcoin.
i have several mistakes from the past bullrun so i will never do the same this time.
as i don't wanna blame my stupidity like what i did in the last 2 bull market.
but thanks for being with me here and to all of us who will support completely this market.

A very impressive description of the investment journey that you took from 2013 to the present and even entering 1 decade in 2023. Indeed, there were many obstacles but you made it through, even today you have reached a milestone in investment because it has been 10 years. I suspect that many of them have experienced the same thing, but surviving for 10 years in investing is quite difficult for some people.

Many of us would like to see BTC above $100k in the next year, although it may be quite difficult to happen but there is a good chance BTC price will reach $100k in the coming years. We just need to be patient and accumulate BTC over the year to reach our dream once the BTC price hits $100k.

For this reason, we only have to overcome an obstacle, which is to fight against the desire for profit. Because after all it becomes an obstacle that does not have to be in our records.  therefore a great hope will continue to grow to continue to buy until one day we can have BTC in our portfolio at a price of $100k at some point in the future.

In this case sometimes there will be some conditions that might be the worst case scenario when it comes to short-term investments but when it comes to gambling then obviously I totally agree with you.
This is a way that seems quite odd but indeed as you say this can be motivating even though in the end when the comparison occurs bitcoin still cannot develop in a better direction (because it is short-term) but of course we also know this will be more worth it when compared to gambling in the same initial capital conditions and the same time vulnerability.

This will have some possibilities to make families realise and motivate them that bitcoin is worth it.
Although surely when talking about gambling it will not be easy to just let go but at least with things like this they will be more literate in seeing bitcoin.

True, we are not clairvoyants nor are we someone who can come to the future just to know for sure about the price of bitcoin but of course in this case when we refer to history and what has always happened, there is great hope, especially when welcoming halving.
In this condition it is very possible to happen because indeed some of the previous conditions have always been positive so obviously this is the hope for now.
But even so, I will not regret it even though the price in 2024 will still be the same as now because I still have high confidence in bitcoin.

If you well go into the area of discussion here, you will discover that no one is giving a precise rate bitcoin is getting to this coming year 2024, they are just what we perceived coming and have gone through them base on the past records on bitcoin in knowing the rate to how bitcoin skyrockets during and after each successful halving in the past, which indicates that this coming year also will not be an exception as well because bitcoin will taste the value of six digits next halving as if already had $68,000 ATH on record.

I also believe that $100K could be achieved by Bitcoin if there were no big scams in the crypto space that could affect the price of Bitcoin itself in the market. But everyone has seen how the Bitcoin price is currently moving in the market which is still very difficult to make a bigger increase this month so in the next few months Bitcoin still needs a more positive impetus to get closer to the $50K range in the market.

Everyone can indeed make estimates and predictions based on the analysis they have, but this will not be easy enough to happen even though the Bitcoin price is still in a range that is not too far from $30K now. But what seems right now is that Bitcoin is still struggling to get close to the $35K range this month which is also almost the end of the month and I still hope for Bitcoin to be able to increase to $35K before the start of next month.

There can be some real problems if we are comparing the performance of our portfolios in the short term, and for example, there are quite a few people who invested into bitcoin in the last couple of years, and at this time, even if they did not do anything wrong, their portfolios are "barely" getting back into profits, and if they made some mistakes, then they might be even further in the red because of those mistakes.

Even with myself, the first three years of my BTC investment was barely in profits.. so from late 2013 until about late 2016, my BTC portfolio was ONLY of questionable profitability.. ..

Even though I pretty much front-loaded my investment into BTC in 2014 (and my average price per BTC was coming down from $1,200 and down into the $500s), but my BTC holdings were largely in the red (and sometimes more than 50% into the negative) for quite a bit of time in 2015 (even though I continued to buy and people felt sorry for me)... So yeah the BTC price was in the mid-$200s for much of the time in 2015, so by the time 2016 came, my portfolio was starting to feel like it was potentially going to come out of the red and to be less in the red, but it was NOT really unambigously out of the red until late 2016 and early 2017..

Even though on a personal level I was already feeling pretty good about my BTC investment by the time we got into early 2016.. but even then it did not become more clear that BTC prices would break above $500 until May 2016. .and then there were further dabbles with $500 in mid-to-late 2016 and even in early 2017, people (bitcoin bears/naysayers) were talking about BTC "having to correct down to below $500 before they could resume up.. and that correction down to $500 did not happen and did not ever happen, so a lot of the folks relying upon those bearish proclamations got even more reckt than the mostly holders, such as myself, and we know what happened to BTC in 2017 and even the correction in 2018 did not bring BTC prices even close to back to 3 digits, since the lowest we got was in the lower $3ks and that did not even last very long, even though we had a brief bout into the upper $3ks in the March 2020 liquidation event.. perhaps a fluke, but who knows?

So my point is that in the long term you may well be laughing.. but in the short term you might not look so good depending on how things are measured and even if you might have made a few mistakes along the way, too.

This is right, never think too much about the ATH of bitcoin prices while we ignore the investments that should be made from now on, just focus on buying as much bitcoin as possible whatever the method is then that becomes our target, and after that let's see bitcoin's journey towards halving day and see how high the price is.

Simply believe!!! This is the most appropriate year for me to anyone to immediately enter the market and buy bitcoin while still from the previous half ATH, I think investors have long also known that this is a better year to enter bitcoin and beginners should be able to follow the movement of the previous cycle, I think about the analysis of the previous cycle also compared a lot on Twitter, now I will see how big the portfolio will be.