It definitely needs lightning network, but the market may shoot up even without it. I personally find further growth justified only if we have lightning network operational, mainly because of the fact that it stimulates further adoption and further growth. If we in the coming weeks or months have more institutional investors coming on board, we might see another rally get initiated, and this time may even reach the $30k level. The million dollar question (literally) is when we will finally have lightning network operational -- some people behind the scenes with this information will make easy millions in profits, and I am sure they will use that information advantage.