Topic: BTC broke all major support lines, and the worse is yet to come. (Read 1722 times)

here is an update for the last set up





we did close below the trend line mentioned, and now heading low with almost no support all the way down to the trend line in green , which i have not drawn in the last post.

the support of this up trend line is somewhere around 3650$ , it's a strong support on the daily, and i will be monitoring the 4h chart when we approach that level,  the 3450-70$ however is a stronger support and that's where i would set my buy order without really having to monitor price actions, because that's where the 200 MA sits as well, so chances are we get a wick down to that level.

so i will be closing my short positions as we approach 3700$ and slowly opening longs as we approach 3650.

i will also be paying a close attention to the 200 weekly SMA, it's now the strongest defense line for the bulls, should it be broken i will be entering heavy short positions as i do expect the fall will be a big one if that would happen.

In general, I would prefer that the cryptocurrency really be decentralized Independently of each other. It’s too bad that all this time replacing Bitcoin has affected the development of many projects. Today we are reaping the bad fruits of this trend. If in the future Bitcoin will not change anything, then really it is worth expecting only a bad development of events.

This is really hard to judge but theres a number of signs to the upside.  With us above 50 day average and also putting in a series of rising lower highs, it seems to be a very good challenge to the 4000 to 4500 doorway area.     That area itself can be resistance by itself enough to send us back down but also its entry to the bigger challenge of approaching 6000.    I'm not sure how to dismiss either possibility as occurring right now but just has to be said it looks to be positive momentum to me.   

Yes the bigger picture is a declining 200 day average and that obvious negative long term but its not really challenged that for a while.   Fall far enough and theres space for a rise like this to occur.   How much its linked to news or anticipation of events I'm not sure but price alone looks ok and plenty doubters is ironically good

it's been a while since i posted my trading set up, here is the current plan and view.

Bulls are really exhausted and I'd recommend you to buy some short contracts. There too many many long positions are opened, so bears have a big liquidity that bulls don't.

break out took a bit longer, but played out real nice, inistial target 3900$ is reached



we have also broke out of the triangle, that's a good sign for the bulls however ,am starting to lock some profit already, close 50% , moved the SL for the rest to breakeven point, TP is 4020$ and 4120$
, the resistance ahead is quite strong, i need to see a daily close above 4060$ to be extra bullish on the current trend.

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again guys this is not a show-off or i told you so, i want to show you the breakouts are the most profitable trades one can make specially in a sideways market like this one.

my overall take on the market is still very bearish, we are still making lower highs , despite the fact we making higher lows as well, the overall trend is still very bearish, however a higher high above 4060$ will give more strength to this current uptrend, but don't FOMO.

what goes up must come down, and the opposite is also true, based on bitcoin history, and most technical aspects, we have either bottomed, or are a few steps away from bottom. back in Nov last year i said that "2900-3100" is what most likely bottom , you can refer to the op, and i still side that, not to satisfy my ego, but this is what the charts are suggesting to be the higher probability.

there is another probability that suggests 1900$ and another one that suggest 1000$  > https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.48455090

while non of this has to be true, it really is important to be prepared for all these scenarios and to have a plan for each and every scenario, one must have a plan even for an out of no where spike to 10k next month.

if you are not planning your investments , you are as good as a gambler, regardless of where the market goes, you will always lose.

And the worst part can be under the 3K USD of Bitcoin! Bitcoin has broken all the support lines since August 2018 I think, and it continues! Actually, I want to see BTC under 3K USD very soon, because without crossing that line I don't think Bitcoin price can go up! Sometimes I can't believe that Bitcoin price is 3500 USD where I thought it can't go under 5K USD! But I have a strong belief that after breaking all the lines, Bitcoin price will create a new line in a positive way.

we have a more important level to break anyway. below is Binance chart, it's btcusdT, so it's a bit different from other exchanges.



there is a very strong downtrend line that the bulls need to break, price will most likely not close above it, 3777$ seems to be it for this leg,
and it will head to test the uptrend line at about 3440$.

a break out to either direction will be a good trade, but i don't see this happening soon, it will probably be by next month, but should we break out to one direction, you don't wanna miss that.

if we break the triangle up, very likely we will break the 4200 but 4700-4800 will be it for Q1 and Q2

look at the bigger picture on the weekly chart


we have got the 20MA , a trend line and a horizontal resistance to break, being on the weekly charts, this only indicates that we need months of side-ways to break that, testing the trend line at 4700$ will unlikely break it,the bulls will probably be exhausted at those levels, the bulls need to bring those resistances to their zone, and this can be only done through a long extended period of sideways between the low of 3200 and those resistances.

here is an more detailed explanation > https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.49569375

if you are not a big fan of comparing old charts to current, just read the concept, every technical aspect points to the fact that this is nothing but a sucker rally that is going to be sold real fast.

and this of course based on the assumption that we have actually bottom, because if we have not, things are 3 times worse, assuming we bottomed thins still look bad for the bulls and the lambo guys, i am almost certain that nothing really interesting for the bulls is going to happen before at least Sep 2019.    

true that. a bart top is still possible here, but that looks like a solid setup.

bigger picture, do you see us breaking $4200 (the december 23 high)? i'm thinking so. it looks to me like the start of C in a typical ABC. but i'm wondering if i'm getting ahead of myself.....

wait for a break-out , go long. set TP and SL .

if you want to learn how to enter a good trade read this > https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.49106511

price did not go below 3686$ on bitfenx. it's important the you treat each exchange differently, and stick to the one you use.

> https://cryptowat.ch/markets/bitfinex/btc/usd

on binance price was as low as 3540$ because that's BTCUSDT. the point here is to use the support line as your SL, regardless of what the numbers show.

if you look at my chart, you see a green line at 3689.3$ that was the support line that was supposed to hold the price, and price bounced just about 70 cents above it.

on the exchange that had 3550$ then that support line was at the price.

the support line is drawn based on the prev support 25 and 27 nov , and as Resistance on 9 dec and 17 dec. it is a very critical level and it will look almost the same on as a whole on any exchange, but the prices will be different.

also you should not refer to SL as per exact number " as i explained in my prev posts", i do not set auto SL, i set Auto TP but not SL. you need to wait for at least an hour candle close below the support, you set a price alert on trading-view , you get and email or sms when prices crosses that target, you then wait for the candle close, if it closes below you exist, if not you don't.

but if you know you are way too far from your pc /phone and won't be able to react, then you may set an automatic SL.

i hope you understand.

as for the next steps, i closed half of my potions at TP1 , waiting for 4250 on biftnex with my SL changing to close below 3800 because 3800 is now a new local support that should hold the price up.

Good luck.

Right now the bitcoin price is nearby 3600+ below your SL:3650, so i think your SL  got triggered as in most of the exchanges the price is down below 3600 level. So what will be the next position to take in the market.

3770 TP reached, nice little profit.


going long now, 3600-3700 is a good support, potential H&S formation

SL : 3650

TP 1 :3970
TP 2 :4250

If we closely take a look on the graph, there is a certain thing that signifies. It signifies that we cant predict the market trend, even we created a lot like these seem still we dont know. If we compare the current chart we have now, still far away from what it have since from the start. Personal adoption into the market still be our option to survive.

from the graph you gave it was terrible because the price could fall whenever it could happen, you should be able to learn from the 2017 price increase until the end of 2018, there will be no coins that always have a price move to go up, so you should be careful .

say TA is b.s   .

closed partial of my short position, moved SL to break even. currently at local support 3940$.  we could bounce from here, but am not going to open any longs just yet, will add more shorts if we break 3940.

for all traders must always be optimistic.
 if you see that the current developments may still not be good, then we must rearrange new techniques in trading.
maybe we can make a long-term trade to prevent sharp losses, or if the situation still hasn't changed, then we can get out of the trade first, we can wait for prices to move up.

  

i closed every single long position for now. should have closed right at the resistance especially with that shooting star forming on the 4H, but i got greedy and closed at 4% less profit, but still with overall about 20% profit from the falling wedge which is not bad.

why did i close my long positions ?

1-we are approaching the 4500$ strong resistance (bitfinex)
2- BTC has formed a kind of a rising wedge which if we break, we will dip to possibly 3750$
3- Bearish divergence and exhausted bulls starting to show on the trend.

what am i going to do next?

1- short the market if we break the wedge " SL will be a close above the breaking candle.

TP will be 3940, 3770   or manual close should any bullish signal appear on the chart.

2- il long the market if we the 4h candle break above the red resistance and close above, it will be safe to buy with SL being a candle close below the resistance which will then act as a support.

TP will be 4800, 5400 or a manual close if things go south.

*tho i doubt scenario 2 is going to happen, but if it does, we gotta take some very nice profit because the run will be quick.