Topic: BTC created new ATH before Halving: are you surprised? - page 2. (Read 616 times)

Haha, that's weird anyway it's up to you what you find bullish and bearish, For the deadlines I meant by some ETF approvals, and some other regulatory policy clarification, TBH for MT GOX and the unlock supply I don't really care about it, because there's already a huge lack of supply for accumulation, Haha on that short time even if 100k Bitcoins starts flowing a very short-frame dump is possible.

There are many numbered speculations in market for the March but this week is bullish afterwards a healthy correction is expected.

BTC reached a new ATH of 69,170.63 USD today, marking a significant moment in its history. This is a surprising development, as BTC has traditionally never reached a new ATH before the halving event.

Bitcoin again created a new ATH albeit narrowly at $70,083.05. What is happening is to be expected. When the price approaches resistance like this, the moment it reaches the figure it goes back down because many sell orders are triggered. But I am an optimist and I believe that the buying pressure will make the price go up like crazy very soon. Next stop, the $100K (although it is not going to be a straight line from $70K to $100K).

I want to know your views on BTC reaching a new ATH before the Halving:

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

]

I’m surprised because on the face it seems like this is something that hasn’t been done before. However, once you understand that the market was artificially depressed due to Sam Bankman-Fried’s nonsense fraud, you realize that it isn’t that surprising. Just imagine that the FTX collapse didn’t happen and Bitcoin hit $135K last cycle if you want the pattern and the behavior we’re seeing now to make sense.

I am so surprised with bitcoin can created the new all time high price before halving time left one month later, usually the new highest price of bitcoin near future with halving or few days after halving time coming.
I have prediction before with difficulty of bitcoin price after ETF approval announcement and seems not easily for raising up to new higher price before halving time arrive.

Yesterday bitcoin have touched the new higher price and halving time left one month later, will see any possibilities of bitcoin get the new higher price before halving? I think more close opportunity how easily bitcoin recovery after few percent correction with bigger chance to make new other all time high price maybe raise more than $70k.

hmm, it's surprising that your words also looks bullish to me haha, because it's already new ATH, BTW what was the previous ATH, it was around  $67,567 (let's round off it to $68k) and the current ATH is $69,170 which to me is not a big target. Well, your words are also expressing your bullish turn now hehe. BTW what deadlines are you talking about, maybe the ones for MT gox payment, or the selling of BTC from the US government? If that's so then is it possible that if people will start to sell their BTC?

Hmm, Surprising that you are bullish dude haha because it's a new ATH already and you are expressing your Bullish turn now hehe, Anyway it's totally up to you that you make your market moves. ATH's are always surprising and 150k is not a big deal according to the current momentum I'm expecting a great rise again after May reason some deadlines. At the same time, there's still time to go beyond the 100k, and by the end of 2024 100k will be a little surprising because I'm expecting an 80k to 90k potential gain by the end of the year, At the same time 2025 might bring the optimistic target of 150k+.

Who knows what's gonna happen, still these are some of my instincts.

I am so surprised with bitcoin can created the new all time high price before halving time left one month later, usually the new highest price of bitcoin near future with halving or few days after halving time coming.
I have prediction before with difficulty of bitcoin price after ETF approval announcement and seems not easily for raising up to new higher price before halving time arrive.

Yesterday bitcoin have touched the new higher price and halving time left one month later, will see any possibilities of bitcoin get the new higher price before halving? I think more close opportunity how easily bitcoin recovery after few percent correction with bigger chance to make new other all time high price maybe raise more than $70k.

BTC reached a new ATH of 69,170.63 USD today, marking a significant moment in its history. This is a surprising development, as BTC has traditionally never reached a new ATH before the halving event.

BTC halving is an event built into Bitcoin's code that cuts the reward for mining new BTC in half, roughly every four years. This happens because the halving is triggered at a specific number of mined blocks (around 210,000)^[1], and with an average block creation time of 10 minutes, it works out to roughly four years between halvings.

In simpler terms, Halving reduces miners' income, causing the minimum BTC mining cost to roughly double. This means that for miners to maintain their pre-halving income, the BTC price would also need to roughly double. This is considered one of the driving forces behind the historical price increases of BTC observed after each Halving event^[2]. It may contribute to the roughly 4-year cycle observed in both BTC and the broader crypto market, similar to some traditional markets. I believe this cyclical pattern might have been part of Satoshi's calculation when creating Bitcoin.

I believe that BTC history can be segmented into distinct periods. The first period, spanning from its genesis block mined on January 3rd, 2009^[3], to the third halving event on May 11th, 2020, exhibits unique characteristics:

• Singular ATH: a period witnessed a single, prominent ATH, suggesting a distinct price discovery phase.
• Bounded Bear Markets: Subsequent bear markets never dipped lower than the prior cycle's peak, potentially indicating a rising price floor.
• Pre-Halving Stagnation: New ATHs consistently emerged after halving events, suggesting a price increase pattern tied to block reward reduction.
• Fib retracement at Halving: The BTC price at each halving appears to gravitate towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding downtrend.

Due to the consistent properties mentioned earlier, predicting the first stage is generally straightforward.


The second stage, however, presents a more intricate picture. While it may have begun around May 11th, 2020, coinciding with Halving 3, there are some key deviations from the previous cycle:

• Double-peaked ATH: ATH took the form of a double peak, occurring in both April and November of 2021.
• Deeper crypto winter: The current crypto winter's bottom point sits lower than the prior cycle's peak, reaching 15.5K USD in November 2022 compared to 19.8K USD in December 2017.
• Early new ATH: Notably, a new ATH emerged today, before the Halving 4.
• Uncertain Halving price: The BTC price at the time of this halving remains undetermined, with the possibility of exceeding the previous cycle's ATH.

While I'm impressed by BTC's new ATH, as a non-technical investor, I'm cautious about this deviation from historical cycles. In 2021, I successfully timed the market by selling in November-December based on cyclical patterns. This time, however, the uncertainty is higher. The next peak for BTC could be in November 2025, but an earlier ATH in 2024 followed by a crypto winter in 2025 is also a possibility. Predicting this accurately is difficult, and more data is needed for a clearer picture.

I want to know your views on BTC reaching a new ATH before the Halving:

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

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References:
[1] What Is Bitcoin Halving? Definition, How It Works, Why It Matters
[2] Bitcoin Halving 2024: How It Works and Why It Matters
[3] How and when did Bitcoin start? The complete Bitcoin history