BTC reached a new ATH of 69,170.63 USD today, marking a significant moment in its history. This is a surprising development, as BTC has traditionally never reached a new ATH before the halving event.
BTC halving is an event built into Bitcoin's code that cuts the reward for mining new BTC in half, roughly every four years. This happens because the halving is triggered at a specific number of mined blocks (around 210,000)
[1], and with an average block creation time of 10 minutes, it works out to roughly four years between halvings.
In simpler terms, Halving reduces miners' income, causing the minimum BTC mining cost to roughly double. This means that for miners to maintain their pre-halving income, the BTC price would also need to roughly double. This is considered one of the driving forces behind the historical price increases of BTC observed after each Halving event
[2]. It may contribute to the roughly 4-year cycle observed in both BTC and the broader crypto market, similar to some traditional markets. I believe this cyclical pattern might have been part of Satoshi's calculation when creating Bitcoin.
I believe that BTC history can be segmented into distinct periods. The first period, spanning from its genesis block mined on January 3rd, 2009
[3], to the third halving event on May 11th, 2020, exhibits unique characteristics:
- Singular ATH: a period witnessed a single, prominent ATH, suggesting a distinct price discovery phase.
- Bounded Bear Markets: Subsequent bear markets never dipped lower than the prior cycle's peak, potentially indicating a rising price floor.
- Pre-Halving Stagnation: New ATHs consistently emerged after halving events, suggesting a price increase pattern tied to block reward reduction.
- Fib retracement at Halving: The BTC price at each halving appears to gravitate towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding downtrend.
Due to the consistent properties mentioned earlier, predicting the first stage is generally straightforward.
The second stage, however, presents a more intricate picture. While it may have begun around May 11th, 2020, coinciding with Halving 3, there are some key deviations from the previous cycle:
- Double-peaked ATH: ATH took the form of a double peak, occurring in both April and November of 2021.
- Deeper crypto winter: The current crypto winter's bottom point sits lower than the prior cycle's peak, reaching 15.5K USD in November 2022 compared to 19.8K USD in December 2017.
- Early new ATH: Notably, a new ATH emerged today, before the Halving 4.
- Uncertain Halving price: The BTC price at the time of this halving remains undetermined, with the possibility of exceeding the previous cycle's ATH.
While I'm impressed by BTC's new ATH, as a non-technical investor, I'm cautious about this deviation from historical cycles. In 2021, I successfully timed the market by selling in November-December based on cyclical patterns. This time, however, the uncertainty is higher. The next peak for BTC could be in November 2025, but an earlier ATH in 2024 followed by a crypto winter in 2025 is also a possibility. Predicting this accurately is difficult, and more data is needed for a clearer picture.
I want to know your views on BTC reaching a new ATH before the Halving:
- Are you surprised by this event?
- Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
- Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?
References:[1]
What Is Bitcoin Halving? Definition, How It Works, Why It Matters[2]
Bitcoin Halving 2024: How It Works and Why It Matters[3]
How and when did Bitcoin start? The complete Bitcoin history 
