BTC cycles and super cycles | Bitcointalksearch.org

tranthidung

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Quote from: Poker Player on May 03, 2022, 10:16:30 PM

Quote from: tranthidung on May 03, 2022, 09:35:57 PM

If you simply look at the price chart, the next station for Bitcoin in case it continues falling is around $15,000 to $13,000.

You're the first person I've seen say that. I doubt it will go that low, but what I am sure of is that if the price drops below $20k there is going to be a lot of panic.

How about this now @Poker Player?

From $20,000 to another crash down to $15,000 or even $13,000 that is not too far and still possible. Bitcoin has a serious crash to below $4,000 in March 2020 after World Health Organization makes an announcement on the Covid-19 pandemic.

What will happen in coming months that can cause Bitcoin to have a very slippery fall toward $13,000 or $15,000? I can not know but at least I see another reason to think of that price range. We have yet seen any miner capitulation on massive scale. It must happen to confirm a bottom range.

Anyway, think positively, Bitcoin won't die. It is here to stay. The Lindy effect becomes bigger with time and it supports the Bitcoin survival.

https://www.bitcoinisdead.org/ (visit to see a very nice summary chart)
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

speedy963

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Quote from: TheGreatPython on May 08, 2022, 04:33:59 PM

Quote from: speedy963 on May 06, 2022, 11:58:42 PM

As long as I have already been in this industry, I still cannot fully predict the market's direction in a larger scale. Even with all the indicators out there and waiting for several confirmations, most predictions still do not go the way I thought they would. Specially when sudden economical issues occur or some massively influential person or group of people makes a statement or rumors that are either positive or negative towards bitcoin or any crypto out there. And depending on the intensity of the news or rumor the market price moves accordingly up or down. Would be better off just doing small scalps on leveraged trades or hold a comfortable amount on spot then just DCA when price goes below buy range than cracking my head up trying to make sense with the cycles that doesn't really have a certain direction.

If you are losing money even after being here for many years, maybe you should look at the past instead of trying to predict the future. Just try to learn where you did wrong, what you assumed would happen, why you assumed that, what did you base that assumption on and then just make sure that you do not make that same mistake again.

So, there is a thing that you are failing, and the best way to stop failing at that would be to spend time on learning why you failed in the past, instead of trying to be better at it next time directly. This is of course just an advice, maybe you could get better overtime as well even if you do not follow my suggestion.

Thanks for the advice, I agree and have personally been doing this as well. I don't lose that much though that it results in me personally losing money since I do long term on spot only and on coins that I have thoroughly researched about. Of course that is if I do not panic sell or have a coin die out which rarely happens. I have one though that is not looking good right now which is sovryn but I do not regret investing since I really did love its utility.

Just a bit upset since it bothers me not being able to fully understand long term market movements. On smaller time frames though, by doing leverage, it is quite easy(although not a hundred percent but with controlled greed, profits are assured). Too bad there's little to no way out there to predict sudden economical changes nor the minds of big or influential people/group of people which heavily influences the market.

TheGreatPython

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Quote from: speedy963 on May 06, 2022, 11:58:42 PM

As long as I have already been in this industry, I still cannot fully predict the market's direction in a larger scale. Even with all the indicators out there and waiting for several confirmations, most predictions still do not go the way I thought they would. Specially when sudden economical issues occur or some massively influential person or group of people makes a statement or rumors that are either positive or negative towards bitcoin or any crypto out there. And depending on the intensity of the news or rumor the market price moves accordingly up or down. Would be better off just doing small scalps on leveraged trades or hold a comfortable amount on spot then just DCA when price goes below buy range than cracking my head up trying to make sense with the cycles that doesn't really have a certain direction.

If you are losing money even after being here for many years, maybe you should look at the past instead of trying to predict the future. Just try to learn where you did wrong, what you assumed would happen, why you assumed that, what did you base that assumption on and then just make sure that you do not make that same mistake again.

So, there is a thing that you are failing, and the best way to stop failing at that would be to spend time on learning why you failed in the past, instead of trying to be better at it next time directly. This is of course just an advice, maybe you could get better overtime as well even if you do not follow my suggestion.

speedy963

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As long as I have already been in this industry, I still cannot fully predict the market's direction in a larger scale. Even with all the indicators out there and waiting for several confirmations, most predictions still do not go the way I thought they would. Specially when sudden economical issues occur or some massively influential person or group of people makes a statement or rumors that are either positive or negative towards bitcoin or any crypto out there. And depending on the intensity of the news or rumor the market price moves accordingly up or down. Would be better off just doing small scalps on leveraged trades or hold a comfortable amount on spot then just DCA when price goes below buy range than cracking my head up trying to make sense with the cycles that doesn't really have a certain direction.

pooya87

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Quote from: death69 on May 06, 2022, 10:10:08 AM

Moreover, this big sell-off not only occurs in bitcoin but also on many other assets including gold and stock. So, it raises a question: where does all the money go?

The answer is "in bitcoin".

I know it is hard to believe since the price is going down but it is true. When other markets tank, people have always pulled their money out of those markets and have been putting it in something that is not related to those market and bitcoin has always been one of those things and that fact hasn't changed.

But the problem is that bitcoin market has a lot of weak hands that are beneficial to the whales. They manipulate them by doing a big sell-off with a big FUD campaign convincing them that "because other markets are dumping you should sell bitcoin too" then they buy all their bitcoins at the bottom as weak hands panic sell.
If you look at the charts and compare it with the media over the past 13 years you can clearly see that this is not even the first time they've done it. Only the topic of the FUD changes. The major ones have been 1. China banned bitcoin. 2. Bitcoin energy consumption 3. (the newest one) There is a correlation between bitcoin and other markets but only US markets!!!

tranthidung

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Quote from: kryptqnick on May 06, 2022, 11:07:26 AM

I know at least one reputable person that believes halving doesn't have much impact on the price: Andreas Antonopoulos. I tend to agree with that. Correlation doesn't mean causation. As for the future, I think Bitcoin is likely to continue rising because the interest to it isn't fading, and because it has been going on for all its history. There can be setbacks, but the overall upward tendency seems to persist.

I don't know from where you get it (I did not search to confirm it) but Andreas is right (if he said so).

Halving is not the reason of price growth, one way or another. It is similar to news that is considered as causes for rises and falls by most of people. In fact, news are not reasons of price movements. They are released on time in order to satisfy people on the market when they are surprised about sudden rises or plummets and would like to figure out reasons of such movements.

Halvings are all scheduled by Satoshi Nakamoto and we all know about that. However, each four years, we have warm-up period around halving and media talk more about Bitcoin. It leads to a massive exposure of Bitcoin among the crowd, then we have a new generation of Bitcoin investors, speculators, gamblers. They are components for each 4 year growth and they are the most affected people by reading news about halving.

kryptqnick

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Analysis by halving is popular, but I don't think it's well-grounded on evidence. Sometimes it takes many months or even a year between halving and the price going up, and there's no real way to prove that halving had anything to do with the bull run after such significant time passes. I know at least one reputable person that believes halving doesn't have much impact on the price: Andreas Antonopoulos. I tend to agree with that. Correlation doesn't mean causation. As for the future, I think Bitcoin is likely to continue rising because the interest to it isn't fading, and because it has been going on for all its history. There can be setbacks, but the overall upward tendency seems to persist.

death69

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Quote from: tranthidung on May 03, 2022, 09:35:57 PM

From historical data, there is 80% of correction from past All time highs to bottoms from which new bull runs started. In this bull run, we have yet touched to the bottom if history repeats itself.

History will hardly repeat itself this time. The self-fulfilling prophecy will occur because bitcoin is now a part of the financial world where it is influenced by big boys and large firms. It is not a simple game anymore because there are more variables, significant ones, thus, changing the possibilities of every outcome.

Moreover, this big sell-off not only occurs in bitcoin but also on many other assets including gold and stock. So, it raises a question: where does all the money go?

pooya87

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The "super cycle" is already broken because unlike the previous cycles that we had, this time we didn't reach the big bubble that indicate the end of each cycle. Price only went up a much smaller percentage of what it should have.
In my opinion it is a good thing but the transition is going to be interesting since the market behavior is unpredictable and at times unreasonable like these days. We even see fanatic ideas where people suggest correlations between bitcoin and other completely irrelevant markets.

tranthidung

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Quote from: Poker Player on May 03, 2022, 10:16:30 PM

Quote from: tranthidung on May 03, 2022, 09:35:57 PM

If you simply look at the price chart, the next station for Bitcoin in case it continues falling is around $15,000 to $13,000.

You're the first person I've seen say that. I doubt it will go that low, but what I am sure of is that if the price drops below $20k there is going to be a lot of panic.

That's the point Poker!

The knot around $20,000 is very important and on-chain data shows that there is huge capital flown in from $20,000 to $24,000. I did not mark the article from Glassnode insight but you and everyone can search to get it. Alternatively, you can check with VPVR on TradingView which will show you a same picture.

Therefore, if Bitcoin can not hold $20,000 it will witness a massive crash to lower price so in such panic period, $15,000 to $13,000 is very possible. I don't say it must happen but if we see it, I strongly believe that from that price range, bottom is found, and a new bull cycle will be triggered.

Glassnode Insights' Week 18 2022

In addition, from Mayer Multiple Bands, we might see a little bit down before the real bottom is in

lixer

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Quote from: davis196 on May 04, 2022, 12:53:26 AM

The only global events that would break Bitcoin are a global Bitcoin ban and a World War III(or maybe a global natural disaster).If those events don't happen,I'm sure that Bitcoin will be fine and we will see another ATH in the upcoming years.Is the Bitcoin price moving in cycles?It probably is,but I don't care that much about proving this "cycle theory".All the hype around the BTC halvings is kinda like a self-fulfilling prophecy.The people are buying,because they are expecting the price to go up and their buying activity is what makes the price to actually go up.As if they are trying to pump the price on purpose. Grin

The chances of a global ban on bitcoin is very slim and I don’t see that happening. As for World War III, that’s the one thing I never wish to see ever happen in this world. Countries that have found themselves in war, it’s a situation that they would never wish to ever be involved in again, because it destroys everything about the country, including the economy.

If there happens to be a war, I don’t think that bitcoin would be affected badly, any effect that takes place wouldn’t be that much on it. That’s just what I think.

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Quote from: ololajulo on May 04, 2022, 02:04:59 AM

No one is familiar with it, it is new and is a prediction as a result of the institutional buy and longterm hold. Lot of difference from previous market, which make changes in prediction, bitcoin keeps getting low on exchanges and institutions keep buying and moving from exchanges. Stable coins are more engages and they have more pairs in trade than before. We are likely not to see 80-90% price dump for bitcoin again

That is the greatest thing about the current market, we are not a small niche interest thing anymore, it is used and loved by so many, including the very wealthy at the top. The dude with the most money in the world likes something called "dogecoin", isn't that funny enough to hear? I mean that is why I do not think that we will ever go down too much because we are at a level where it’s impossible to make it go down too much.

However, super cycle is when we go up more than ATH and even double the amount, it has happened before, like the going up from 38k to 48k happened recently but it that was a big increase not a super cycle, the one that took us from 10k to 60k+ was the super one.

ololajulo

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Quote from: Mauser on May 04, 2022, 01:49:35 AM

Quote from: danadc on May 03, 2022, 05:40:54 PM

According to the article, the cycles or super ciles if they break will be beneficial for BTC, then if a super cycle is fulfilled? How should we currently? How do you miss the Bullish trend cycle, but there is not yet .. What is missing? Are world events that do not allow the behavior that came from the accumulation cycle for a couple of years?

I am not really familiar with the term "super cycle". How long does such a super cycle usually last? Or is it just the general direction of a coin? Cycles and trends are pretty common in all types of asset classes. Traders have been using technical analysis to identify cycles since the 70/80s in the stock market. The same characteristics we can find in the crypto markets. Right now I don't think we are in a bull cycle because the world is still very cautious about the Russia-Ukraine war. As long as there are major conflicts in the world I would expect to remain in a sideways trend. The best way to identify such cycles and trends are using indicators from technical analysis. Looking at key numbers that take mean reversion into consideration will show when the short term trend differs from the long term trend - then we will see a shift in the cycle.

No one is familiar with it, it is new and is a prediction as a result of the institutional buy and longterm hold. Lot of difference from previous market, which make changes in prediction, bitcoin keeps getting low on exchanges and institutions keep buying and moving from exchanges. Stable coins are more engages and they have more pairs in trade than before. We are likely not to see 80-90% price dump for bitcoin again

Mauser

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Quote from: danadc on May 03, 2022, 05:40:54 PM

According to the article, the cycles or super ciles if they break will be beneficial for BTC, then if a super cycle is fulfilled? How should we currently? How do you miss the Bullish trend cycle, but there is not yet .. What is missing? Are world events that do not allow the behavior that came from the accumulation cycle for a couple of years?

I am not really familiar with the term "super cycle". How long does such a super cycle usually last? Or is it just the general direction of a coin? Cycles and trends are pretty common in all types of asset classes. Traders have been using technical analysis to identify cycles since the 70/80s in the stock market. The same characteristics we can find in the crypto markets. Right now I don't think we are in a bull cycle because the world is still very cautious about the Russia-Ukraine war. As long as there are major conflicts in the world I would expect to remain in a sideways trend. The best way to identify such cycles and trends are using indicators from technical analysis. Looking at key numbers that take mean reversion into consideration will show when the short term trend differs from the long term trend - then we will see a shift in the cycle.

NotATether

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I'd say that BTC has two cycles similar to those of a capitalist economy - the "short cycle", which lasts for around 1-4 months and has smaller price reverberations, and the "long cycle", which has larger reverberations than the short cycle and lasts every 4 years.
Eventually, a crypto economy is supposed to model the fiat economy of a particular country and doesn't act so sporadically as to be unpredictable, though it does have its own intricancies.

davis196

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Quote

According to the article, the cycles or super ciles if they break will be beneficial for BTC, then if a super cycle is fulfilled? How should we currently? How do you miss the Bullish trend cycle, but there is not yet .. What is missing? Are world events that do not allow the behavior that came from the accumulation cycle for a couple of years?

The only global events that would break Bitcoin are a global Bitcoin ban and a World War III(or maybe a global natural disaster).If those events don't happen,I'm sure that Bitcoin will be fine and we will see another ATH in the upcoming years.Is the Bitcoin price moving in cycles?It probably is,but I don't care that much about proving this "cycle theory".All the hype around the BTC halvings is kinda like a self-fulfilling prophecy.The people are buying,because they are expecting the price to go up and their buying activity is what makes the price to actually go up.As if they are trying to pump the price on purpose. Grin

TheGhostMan

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Quote from: tranthidung on May 03, 2022, 09:35:57 PM

If you simply look at the price chart, the next station for Bitcoin in case it continues falling is around $15,000 to $13,000. Combine it with past records and monthly RSI, it seems that we are possibly around the bottom. Anyway, please don't exclude the scenario that Bitcoin will drop more (RSI shows its possibility too).

From my personal point of view I see this as a kind of "rebound effect" giving a more specific example, it would be the act of throwing a ball from a fifth floor, by law it will have to fall (bearish) and then bounce (uptrend). So regarding your comment yes of course it can drop as low as $15k but we can't forget the volatility of this it's not ruling out the fact that short term investors haven't had their best luck but For those who think in the long term, this can benefit them... at this point, anything can happen.

goldkingcoiner

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You guys are so tragically panicked. I really do not understand why you think that Bitcoin is not still following the logarithmic chart? All is going to plan.

Bitcoin's very mathematical nature is logarithmic. Obviously this affects how the price moves.

Sure we might be going down currently but I have regreted not hodling at the right moments in the past. Bitcoin can show very fast market movements. 50% up or down in a matter of hours. I am not going to regret anymore. I recommend hodling because I have not been able to win the daytrading game as my hodling profits would have been higher from a historical point of view.

Here you guys go, the main chart to be looking at:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/VWcpSWZc-BTC-Logarithmic-Curve/

lornadane

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Quote from: Poker Player on May 03, 2022, 10:16:30 PM

Quote from: danadc on May 03, 2022, 05:40:54 PM

Quote

The patterns from 2013 to 2017 and up to 2021 are easily identifiable Bitcoin cycles. In 2021 and 2022 these clear price cycles seemed to end. Whether that means that a supercycle has already started, or something else entirely, remains to be seen.

source:https://beincrypto.com/in-search-of-the-missing-bitcoin-supercycle-mass-adoption-vs-complicated-new-asset-class/

According to the article, the cycles or super ciles if they break will be beneficial for BTC, then if a super cycle is fulfilled? How should we currently? How do you miss the Bullish trend cycle, but there is not yet .. What is missing? Are world events that do not allow the behavior that came from the accumulation cycle for a couple of years?

LOL. Dan Held was predicting something like $300K in price for last year. Is he still harping on the supercycle theory? I thought him smarter than to keep harping on it even though reality doesn't support his theory.

Come on, maybe I'm wrong and the price starts to rise to the $0.5M he predicted as the top for this cycle as a supercycle but I see that as highly unlikely.

Quote from: tranthidung on May 03, 2022, 09:35:57 PM

From historical data, there is 80% of correction from past All time highs to bottoms from which new bull runs started. In this bull run, we have yet touched to the bottom if history repeats itself.

But a regularity that has been repeated in 3 cycles does not necessarily have to be repeated every time. If it had been repeated in 1,000 cycles maybe it was safer to believe in it but 3 cycles I wouldn't even call it regularity, besides the cycle top has been much lower than in others, so that supposed regularity has been broken too (unless we are going to beat the ath of $70k yet this cycle).

Quote from: tranthidung on May 03, 2022, 09:35:57 PM

If you simply look at the price chart, the next station for Bitcoin in case it continues falling is around $15,000 to $13,000.

You're the first person I've seen say that. I doubt it will go that low, but what I am sure of is that if the price drops below $20k there is going to be a lot of panic.

,

It wouldn't have been possible if bitcoin had dropped that much.
Of course everyone will panic because how many hundreds of millions of people must accept losses if the price of bitcoin drops below the price of $20 thousand and it is very impossible for me.

Poker Player

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Quote from: danadc on May 03, 2022, 05:40:54 PM

Quote

The patterns from 2013 to 2017 and up to 2021 are easily identifiable Bitcoin cycles. In 2021 and 2022 these clear price cycles seemed to end. Whether that means that a supercycle has already started, or something else entirely, remains to be seen.

source:https://beincrypto.com/in-search-of-the-missing-bitcoin-supercycle-mass-adoption-vs-complicated-new-asset-class/

According to the article, the cycles or super ciles if they break will be beneficial for BTC, then if a super cycle is fulfilled? How should we currently? How do you miss the Bullish trend cycle, but there is not yet .. What is missing? Are world events that do not allow the behavior that came from the accumulation cycle for a couple of years?

LOL. Dan Held was predicting something like $300K in price for last year. Is he still harping on the supercycle theory? I thought him smarter than to keep harping on it even though reality doesn't support his theory.

Come on, maybe I'm wrong and the price starts to rise to the $0.5M he predicted as the top for this cycle as a supercycle but I see that as highly unlikely.

Quote from: tranthidung on May 03, 2022, 09:35:57 PM

From historical data, there is 80% of correction from past All time highs to bottoms from which new bull runs started. In this bull run, we have yet touched to the bottom if history repeats itself.

But a regularity that has been repeated in 3 cycles does not necessarily have to be repeated every time. If it had been repeated in 1,000 cycles maybe it was safer to believe in it but 3 cycles I wouldn't even call it regularity, besides the cycle top has been much lower than in others, so that supposed regularity has been broken too (unless we are going to beat the ath of $70k yet this cycle).

Quote from: tranthidung on May 03, 2022, 09:35:57 PM

If you simply look at the price chart, the next station for Bitcoin in case it continues falling is around $15,000 to $13,000.

You're the first person I've seen say that. I doubt it will go that low, but what I am sure of is that if the price drops below $20k there is going to be a lot of panic.

Topic: BTC cycles and super cycles (Read 332 times)