Topic: BTC drop to next level coming...bail the F out now! - page 6. (Read 24657 times)

Yep, I agree with you micky.

I for one believe that the recent steep drop was due to the news that the US marshal service is auctioning off close to 30 K BTC. Chinese news does not seem to affect BTC anymore, as people have smartened up and can see that this is a ploy by the Chinese to buy in at lower prices. More a reaction to the auction news as some whales may be trying to crash the price so that they can buy into the auction at lower rates especially since the auction notice states "Market price" and does not state any particular value per BTC.

Just my 2 satoshi!

And oh yeah, bailing out now may not be the smartest thing to do. Post June 30th once the auction results are announced, we should see BTC rising up again and maybe to greater heights than before. Being an optimist

Well, it depends on how you interpret "Bail the F. Out"

The way I understand it is; (A) Be aware, a big drop is coming, which implies "sell now if possible", and then wait for the big drop to occur and then it's up to you to buy again. Or;

From what I'm reading, others might be understanding it as (B) "Sell now, leave BTC forever", which I am sure isn't the intended message.

For (A) above, I don't know if anyone can argue if this didn't occur at the time of writing. Some even speculated a price of sub-$200, wasn't sure about that one though.

Repeating myself again, "you are cleaver enough to know what's right and wrong, please use common sense"

Anyway, I think the information was good at the time, I don't know how useful it is today to argue about a piece of information sent more than a month ago given the significant amount of BTC changes we all witnessed since then.

What do you think?

Regards
Heider

It's a good sign that we are still higher and if you were looking for long-term predictions/advice (disclaimer: I am not providing any advice:) then you should consider buying on every major dip. If everyone was doing so, the price of BTC would continue to rise. Market price is nothing else than the manifestation of traders' beliefs and their sentiment, if the sellers are in the minority and optimistic buying prevail, then we would see a continuous uptrend with corrections that enable more buyers to join in at a better price. Make sure you understand trends and corrections- corrections are a sign of a healthy trend, those are points in time and price where buyers liquidate their long positions in order cash in the profit, and latecomers have an opportunity to buy at a lower, more attractive price and by doing so they contribute to a further price rise and a continuation of the uptrend. Simply put, buy buy buy and do not bail the F out! LOL

ow cmon...
the most important is still "BTC price" still stable at 500-600
hope that it'll be 800 at the end of year, so i'll throw a big party in the new year night 

... We're Crossing back into recovery mode as of 1am this morning (UK Time)...

It's on its way up...

Do you think the original post was meant to apply forever? Use your common sense, the post was made based on information available at that time. This post is for current indicators and meant for traders and not long terms hodlers.

What's funny to me about this thread is that even after our huge drop recently.....we are STILL over $100 higher than when this thread was made. LOL. As if 25% PLUS returns were suggesting we "bail the F out".  ROFL.

Speculating on future outcomes is tempting, and speculating on this particular BTC-related event is interesting as it may manifest how market participants view BTC and its environment, and how mature they are in their perception of the BTC market. This is the only thing that interests me, I do not think you can predict how the market will react to the actual event on the 27th and 28th of June- for the past two years I've been in front of my computer for almost every major Forex-related news release significant to EUR, USD, GBP or JPY (it's easy to follow through numerous services like http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?day=jun16.2014), and I've seen soooo...ooo many different reactions to news/data, by saying different I mean reactions contrary to expectations/common sense, e.g. in cases where the data was good for a given currency, the market would first go up and then reject the data as if it was never published, reactions that were irrational. Thus even if the BTC-related event plays out as expected, or even though some information surfaces, the market (and it's participants) may decide to do the opposite.

Long-term predictions? Not for me. I prefer short-term trading, as in the case of this account on BTCe:



This is only a demo account with leverage 1:3 where I am testing my Forex methods, but I am quite happy with the results as they are similar to my live Forex results - this is a period of trading starting on the 16th of April 2014, initial deposit of 10.000,00 USD and a gain of 1172,99 USD, trading exclusively on BTCUSD pair. BTCe now allows accounts denominated in Bitcoin, Litecoin and Namecoin and trading on standard Forex majors like EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPY crosses, which makes me even more happy:) With those results, there is nothing to boast about, my only point is to show you that making a number of quick trades (exactly 519 trades in almost two months) allows you to take control of the profits instead of counting/hoping/speculating on what the market will do in a time of a month, two months or a year.

To add one more potential scenario, on reddit I've found an interesting comment by IkmoIkmo:

"And people don't realize that if you buy 30k coins on an exchange, the price increases, so you pay above spot-price average per bitcoin. As such, funds like BIT or Panterra are going to love paying simply the current exchange price for the bitcoin because that would be a huge discount for them compared to sourcing it from an exchange. So contrary to popular belief, these coins aren't going to be auctioned off for cheap!"

[source: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/280atj/calm_down_with_the_panic_selling_so_what_if_the/]

Having this in mind, if such a scenario occurs, the market will basically have no reason to react at all, as there will be no inflow or outflow of BTC as I've speculated earlier. After giving this a thought, this scenario sounds like the most probable, and the USMS would go for the highest bidder, so I wouldn't be surprised if such funds as those mentioned by IkmoIkmo would decide to pay a price a bit higher than the market price on the 27th.

Checking the amount thExit; it's quite shocking if you ask me

I am 80% sure that it would end up with either btcchina or huobi. I am bracing myself for a series of shock-and-Orr waves like we've seen earlier when the Chinese government announced the banning of BTC from their banks, but then they managed to find a loophole to introduce even stronger buying schemes that disrupted the balances for a while.

At the moment, reading the link you sent (thank very much for that); it seems that these BTCs are actually on files at the moment (not held on traders account for release), which should (if my theory is correct) only cause a vacuum (price might slightly go down and then pick up shortly afterwards in the mean time), that should not affect the market-core much once the news is history.

We're seeing an unstable drop of around $100 over the past 4 days because of this news, but wouldn't be surprised if the price would pick up just before the auction.

Checking the market/stats today; although the lines have crossed on the 12th of June and comparing with an older / similar drop, the BTC technically now should be at $458 at the moment, which shows that the market is a lot stronger now than what it was on the 21st of May.

That said; I stick to what I said earlier about in 3 months time BTC should pick up etc, but;

My real worry now is what on earth is going to happen within a month of after the auction ends?...

Best thing for me now is to ... Go away, Eat some Hummus,... and then come back, it will always change...

Kind Regards
Heider

Yes, it is only a theory, and a quite doubtful one, as the amount of 30k BTC is relatively small compared to the overall market capital. My reasoning goes somewhat along the lines of reasoning/methods used by large hedge funds and banks that influence currency prices by sending a large number of orders to drive a currency pair in a certain direction. Sometimes central banks intervene when their currency is too strong/too weak compared to other currencies, and they have the ability to move the price, but it is often short-lived and influences the price for a day or so, despite the fact that huge capital is involved in such operations.

@thexit, that is a nice theory.
But one would have to have a huge amount of coins to make the price plummet this low.

Actually it's the US Marshall Service selling approx. 30k Bitcoins, a part of what the FBI seized after taking down the Silk Road. The other part is approx. 145k Bitcoins held ina  different wallet. The 30k are meant to be auctioned on the 27th of June 2014, to participate one needs to deposit 200k USD and comply with other rules blablabla http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

This recent slump is somehow connected with this news, the auction is the Sealed Bid Auction type, so participants do not know other bids, and the highest figure wins the auction. Thus it is reasonable to use the falling price until the 27th of June, by constantly selling portions of BTC, and to buy back the BTC at a relatively low level from the USMS- if you sold higher you would be able to offer a good price at the auction, a price close to the market price on the 27th of June. As a result you would have your BTC back, plus the dollar amount that constitutes the difference between what you've earned by selling from the higher price to the lower price and what you've paid at the auction. Quite risky, or rather aggressive investment style, more common among hedge funds outsider of Bitcoin industry.

The other scenario is that interested parties would now sell the equivalent of 200k USD to become a bidder, and sell the remaining Bitcoins only upon winning a block/blocks of 3k BTC. In such a case, there would be a need for a quick selloff, as the USMS wants to receive the payment within 24 hours, and this quick selloff would be probably even more risky to the participants, as the price could drop to a lower level that they bid on the auction. The market is mature enough to absorb the potential amount even if it were he equivalent of the whole 30k Bitcoin lot (roughly half of today’s BTC trade volume), but what would happen with the price at that time? A further slump perhaps, but probably followed by a fast recovery. It’s hard to speculate, cause there will be many players choosing different approaches, probably very different from those two I’ve described above:) So no worries, I don’t view the auction as a threat to BTC price, rather an opportunity to get in at a lower price.

BTW, the mentioning of MtGox coins being found by the FBI made my laugh, good one

... Did the FBI "find" the missing MtGox's coins already?! Sounds like a good deal to me

Cheers!

This thread has been a true inspiration for a potential business, first I thought about people wanting to “bail the F out now!” but that would like to do it “legally”, complying with tax guidelines, yet not sacrificing xx% towards tax payments. That’s fine, you can still pay the tax and make that money back in a relatively short period.

Then I thought about people who would like to invest in Bitcoin, but who are newcomers and are somewhat scared, about people who wanted to “bail the F in now!”, but would like to have a backup plan in case their investment does not work out (i.e. BTC decreases in value over time up to an extent that they will no longer tolerate, for example a 30% loss in relation to the initial investment). Same as with those willing to pay the taxes and make that money back, if you decide you’ve lost enough and want to make up for that loss, here is where I come into play. I think that there is a greater potential among those who would like to get in (potentially the whole world:) than among those who are already in but would like to get out. This thread has shifted my view, thanks to every person participating in this discussion!

more bad news,
Ghash>50%
and FBI selling of thousands of coins.

Not saying it is going to go down, just following the breadcrumbs.

... Don't worry, I'm still making money

Well, no one is saying "indefinitely", everyone has their target price I guess.

Yes just hold your coins and do be weakhand, unless you are seeing sub 200 prices you shoulnt panic, and if thats the case would be a huge opportunity to buy cheap coins 

Everyone will just hold their coins indefinitely for the rest of their life. Very nice agile economy.