BTC: is it really bearish? - page 6.

stompix

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Quote from: BernyJB on January 05, 2022, 08:28:15 AM

Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend.
So the magic question would be: what am I missing? Huh

Because if you draw a line since 2011 even if the price reaches 10 cents you're going to see an upwards trend.
Randomly picking a date and drawing a line from here means nothing, sentiment can change from morning to afternoon and again during the night, poeple are calling it a "bearish" season simply because the current trend is not matching bullish expectations of 100k by Christmas.

But that doesn't mean anything, bitcoin could go up as I type by 5k, trends are there only to be broken, bullish or bearish.

Quote from: TravelMug on January 05, 2022, 09:00:06 AM

Hmm, you just have to look at what the S2F model is pointing at the beginning. And now we understand that TA is really very difficult as it might pointing to be bullish in your graph, on the contrary it may go down the opposite.

Just how a crystal ball can be accurate if the right show from the TV reflects in it when the spell is being cast.
Or, in other words, the prices don't give a damn what some lines are drawn on a chart say. Cheesy

If TA would be at least 70% accurate everyone would be so rich already not to care about trading anymore.

Furious 7

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because from the beginning, especially in December, I didn't really understand why they were called bearish even though it was only a temporary correction.
On the other hand, it may be assumed that people have different perspectives and are not seen from other perspectives because the research conducted mainly for traders is more in the direction of the short term, not the longer term.
basically people who say bearish will only make them panic themselves Cheesy

BernyJB

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I see...
So basically what I read is that some people will start screaming "bear" and run for the hills the moment a given asset loses a penny, and most will stop for a second and open a thread here before starting to run. Makes sense.
I'm still a long way from truly understanding technical analysis (I'm trying though). I understand the whole "volatility" concept, and the risk involved. Good to know I'm not completely off...

Thank you all for the prompt replies.

Distinctin

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No dream is too big and no dreamer is too small

You missed the fact that not everything can be seen on the graph.

There are many more factors that could affect the price movement that you cannot see on the graph alone. People are saying that bitcoin is now bearish because they are based on the previous trend where after a bull run a bear market will dominate and it looks like we are in the same scenario now.

What you believe now is always up to you, besides, it doesn't guarantee anything so we just have to follow what we think would happen based on our personal analysis, not on the so-called "experts" in the space.

TravelMug

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Hmm, you just have to look at what the S2F model is pointing at the beginning. And now we understand that TA is really very difficult as it might pointing to be bullish in your graph, on the contrary it may go down the opposite. So maybe you are missing that are not seems to be obvious at this point because it is not happening yet, just saying.

BlackHatCoiner

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Farewell, Leo

Wanna go check what was said in December 2017? It is obvious enough that you can't predict what will happen. What's the mathematical relationship that tells you it'd reach $70,000, I can't comprehend.

The thing I never understood is technical analysis. The question that I haven't yet got an answer is how to increase your chances of being right from a completely free market where everything happens unpredictably. I can speculate it'll worth more in the future, but up to there.

Quote from: Charles-Tim on January 05, 2022, 08:45:05 AM

My post is not about trading but about hodling.

On that note, investing (AKA HODLing) is a hundred times better than trading. With investing you can do something essential, constructive, useful alongside. You don't have to give your sweat looking at charts for hours...

Charles-Tim

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My post is not about trading but about hodling. People do not have to worry, they do not have to sell at loss, but I will encourage everyone to invest more if the price go downtrend. Bitcoin price will later have to increase. What I am thinking now with the news I read today made me think it will be hard for bitcoin to dip below $40000. I may not be accurate but I will be accurate about coming all-time-high. It can take time, but it will surely be one day in reality.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: BernyJB on January 05, 2022, 08:28:15 AM

Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish
[~snip~]
So the magic question would be: what am I missing? Huh

What you're missing is basically all those who are not that vocal.
Although WO is basically bullish, hence it may not be the best example, I'll suggest you read 2 posts: this and this one. And I'm sure many others think like this. Clearly not a financial advice, but a good example to do as you think in trading and investing.

BernyJB

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Ok, as of late I've been drawing some lines (as practice, mostly), and now I'm more confused than ever. Everybody keeps talking about BTC being bearish, but the lines I drew show it to be on an upwards trend. I'm attaching a screenshot of what I see. The graph is from Binance.

So the magic question would be: what am I missing? Huh

Topic: BTC: is it really bearish? - page 6. (Read 803 times)