Topic: BTC might do something nice soon. TA only ( No crystal Ball/s) (Read 795 times)
we got to as low as 4960$ on some exchanges, that's about 10% from entry, you sure might have a different strategy , but mine consist of small potions, where i lock in profit along the way to secure the lot as whole, so should price go against me for whatever opened potions, the profit from the once i closed will cover that up , this indeed lowers my potential profit but given the fact that i have been a bit aggressive with my entries, it only makes sense to be conservative with my exists.
and by the way, i started a new topic regarding the possible fall to 3800$ > https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50774916
i don't want to confuse anyone since the tittle of this one says something "nice" which is differently not the case for the current situation, at least to most people.
I think you did the right thing there, not saying this because i did the same, but the charts are screaming for a massive dip, i feel bad for all the fomo guys who are buying at these prices, they may get lucky but i highly doubt it, 3.8-3.9k is very likely going to happen by next month, a 30% drop is something that can make many people go broke, i hope the fomo boys are not going balls deep this time.
Turns out I indeed did the right thing. I'm holding my short open because I expect the price to plummet further. I'm not sure how realistic sub $4000 levels are, but if that's going to happen anyway I won't complain. As for the fomo buyers, people don't know what risk management is. They jump in and out with everything they got, and more often than not with ridiculous leverage multipliers. Gamblers eventually pay the price, always.
Shorts must also be high on Bitmex because funding rate is not only negative but it's quite high (-0.0617%). I'm guessing there's another short squeeze left before we reverse back downward.
What site do you use to view the funding rate? I use tugWar to see the short-and-long short-term dispute, but I only know Bitmex itself to see the funding rate.
I think you did the right thing there, not saying this because i did the same, but the charts are screaming for a massive dip, i feel bad for all the fomo guys who are buying at these prices, they may get lucky but i highly doubt it, 3.8-3.9k is very likely going to happen by next month, a 30% drop is something that can make many people go broke, i hope the fomo boys are not going balls deep this time.
Another thing is that the sentiment is too positive in my opinion, which usually means that a correction could be due, but we'll see how it goes.
In a broad sense yes, sentiment is too positive to indicate bull market conditions. The start of bull markets are usually characterized by "wall of worry" sentiment and general disbelief about rising prices. So it's likely we'll see a sizeable correction sooner than later.
I'm not sure it's coming quite yet though. After consolidating for several days and making new local highs overnight, we just triggered a new short term uptrend.
Shorts are also rising considerably on Bitfinex: they're up 40% over the past week. Shorts must also be high on Bitmex because funding rate is not only negative but it's quite high (-0.0617%). I'm guessing there's another short squeeze left before we reverse back downward.
it's only a matter of time till we start collapsing, so let's wait and see how it goes, i won't mind losing this trade to see btc breaking these strong areas.
I kept waiting as long as I could, but we're near the important $100 billion market cap, which for me is reason enough to short, and I did. I managed to settle my short at $5500 and some change.Could it go up a little more? Sure, but I don't see any reason for that with how much we have gone up already and the resistance we will face around the $6000 mark. 2x leverage is conservative enough to avoid getting wiped out.
Another thing is that the sentiment is too positive in my opinion, which usually means that a correction could be due, but we'll see how it goes. I at least have put my money where my mouth is.
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but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal.
Its generally a better idea to wait for that signal and join the trend, the decline that is. Being too early is the same as being wrong, sure I heard that before a few times. In trading terms thats correct but scaling into a short here, I generally agree with because I know I'll miss the precise point and I havent the time to be watching always. I'll be distracted or busy elsewhere, its just the way it always goes. Plus I really think BTC goes in 4 stages to a move or trend change as its more globally traded then traditional markets, 24hr is roughly 4 sets of a 6 hour trading 'day' some of which overlap. Maybe Forex resembles that better
but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal. a shooting star (or similar wicking) on the daily with volume that suggests exhaustion would be ideal.
it makes sense to wait for a stronger single, i have been a bit aggressive with my trading, differently not reckless, just not as conservative, in fact looking at smaller time frames you can start seeing some divergence, it's only a matter of time till we start collapsing, so let's wait and see how it goes, i won't mind losing this trade to see btc breaking these strong areas.
Well done! Turns you were spot on. Hope you made a decent profit trading the pattern.
thanks pal, hope you made use of it too, stay tuned more to come
Chart first
Green = 200 SMA
Red = 50 SMA
Yellow = 20 SMA
Chart > Weekly
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BTC right now is trading above the 20 SMA .
Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)
This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.
however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish
so if you are currently shorting BTC (like i am doing) , you better watch the weekly close, if you see a clear weekly candle peaking it's head above the 20SMA, you will very likely get liquidated.
The other interesting thing is this, should we drop and bounce back up from the 200 SMA( likely) , it will be very possible that we close above the 20SMA on the weekly and peak our heads to see those 5k levels again pretty soon.
note this is a weekly chart, things won't happen in a week or two, it takes months to swing between those SMAs.
also , i would like to hear what you guys think about these almost identical charts 2014-2015 vs 2018-2019. they look even more similar with the way price flirts with these SMAs.
Green = 200 SMA
Red = 50 SMA
Yellow = 20 SMA
Chart > Weekly
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BTC right now is trading above the 20 SMA .
Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)
This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.
however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish
so if you are currently shorting BTC (like i am doing) , you better watch the weekly close, if you see a clear weekly candle peaking it's head above the 20SMA, you will very likely get liquidated.
The other interesting thing is this, should we drop and bounce back up from the 200 SMA( likely) , it will be very possible that we close above the 20SMA on the weekly and peak our heads to see those 5k levels again pretty soon.
note this is a weekly chart, things won't happen in a week or two, it takes months to swing between those SMAs.
also , i would like to hear what you guys think about these almost identical charts 2014-2015 vs 2018-2019. they look even more similar with the way price flirts with these SMAs.
Well done! Turns you were spot on. Hope you made a decent profit trading the pattern.
what i am personally doing right now is actually adding more short positions, i do believe it's a very good level to short here, given the risk:reward ratio.
you've got some big balls on ya!
i agree with you actually re r/r, but since we just pushed new highs, it seems appropriate to wait a few days for bullish momentum to die out. we are definitely near major resistance at $5500-$6k, with the 50ma here as well like you said. i would be very surprised if we bulldozed right through it.
but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal. a shooting star (or similar wicking) on the daily with volume that suggests exhaustion would be ideal.
The moment of truth is here, BTC is has touched the 50SMA on the weekly, to be honest, i did not expect this rally to go to this, too bad i sold a bit earlier, but i guess I did the right the thing based on what i saw then.
what is it going to be? keep following the 2014-2015 patterns and retrace to 4k or even possibly 3.xxx$ ? or are we going to close above the 50SMA as well as the strong resistance at 5.8-6.2k and really start the bull market ?
despite the fact that i sold a bit lower than i initially thought in the OP, the fact that we still touched the 50SMA regardless of how exhausted the bulls seemed to be, this adds more weight to the current market being a mirror image of 2014-2015, and this does give the first scenario of dropping from the 50SMA much higher probability than simply closing above it and starting a new bull run.
what i am personally doing right now is actually adding more short positions, i do believe it's a very good level to short here, given the risk:reward ratio.
will be looking to long btc at the next possible support, and will indeed keep some fiat for a possible 3.xk again, having said that, should price close above the coming resistance, i will have to close my shorts with a loss and re-evaluate everything again.
what is it going to be? keep following the 2014-2015 patterns and retrace to 4k or even possibly 3.xxx$ ? or are we going to close above the 50SMA as well as the strong resistance at 5.8-6.2k and really start the bull market ?
despite the fact that i sold a bit lower than i initially thought in the OP, the fact that we still touched the 50SMA regardless of how exhausted the bulls seemed to be, this adds more weight to the current market being a mirror image of 2014-2015, and this does give the first scenario of dropping from the 50SMA much higher probability than simply closing above it and starting a new bull run.
what i am personally doing right now is actually adding more short positions, i do believe it's a very good level to short here, given the risk:reward ratio.
will be looking to long btc at the next possible support, and will indeed keep some fiat for a possible 3.xk again, having said that, should price close above the coming resistance, i will have to close my shorts with a loss and re-evaluate everything again.
just in case we don't follow prev charts 100% , i always like to consider all the possibilities and to be able to plan and act accordingly.
so let's dig into the chart on the daily time frame.
Green = support
Red = Resistance
possible scenarios
A - (very weak ) price keeps moving up, a clove about major resistance and start of a new rally . i don't see shit like that happening now ! but if we close above it, should you sit there and wait for scenario B to happen? indeed not.
B ( very strong)
a retrace from the major resistance area, a correction towards one of the support trends/lines
previous chart suggest we fall to the 200sma on the weekly which would be around 3500$ but it's not 100% sure to happen , so here are major support areas i would be looking to buy at
1-purple trend-line (around 4600$)
2-horizontal support area from 4100$ to 4300$
3-20 SMA (currently at around 3900$-4000$)
4-200SMA(currently at around 3500$)
depending on the price action that forms when we approach each of those areas i will be planing to take long positions from there. already took a good profit from this spike, last portion will be sold at 5500-5600$ and will probably enter short positions at that level too.
so let's dig into the chart on the daily time frame.
Green = support
Red = Resistance
possible scenarios
A - (very weak ) price keeps moving up, a clove about major resistance and start of a new rally . i don't see shit like that happening now ! but if we close above it, should you sit there and wait for scenario B to happen? indeed not.
B ( very strong)
a retrace from the major resistance area, a correction towards one of the support trends/lines
previous chart suggest we fall to the 200sma on the weekly which would be around 3500$ but it's not 100% sure to happen , so here are major support areas i would be looking to buy at
1-purple trend-line (around 4600$)
2-horizontal support area from 4100$ to 4300$
3-20 SMA (currently at around 3900$-4000$)
4-200SMA(currently at around 3500$)
depending on the price action that forms when we approach each of those areas i will be planing to take long positions from there. already took a good profit from this spike, last portion will be sold at 5500-5600$ and will probably enter short positions at that level too.
Looking at Bitfinex commitment of traders, shorts have been rising and longs have been falling over the past few days of consolidation. That reinforces the idea of another leg up: these accumulating shorts can be squeezed and there's still room for more longs. In other words, there's still some gas left in the tank. I'm still looking for a leg up from this flag.
I strongly believe that fundamentals are always reflected in the charts anyway. Since Bitcoin's fundamentals are so abstract (you can't break them down to analyzable numbers like P/E ratio or P/B ratio or debt-to-equity or cash flow), I think the charts will always provide the strongest basis for analysis.
The problem with btc is that it has no real life use case yet, most people treat btc as it is just a random thing that could rise in value and they would be able to sell at higher price( for fiat ).
Many investors never actually had access to the btc they think they buy, bitmex is one example.
So as long we don't have people buying bitcoin for sake of actually using it then the strongest analysis will always come from charts whether we like it or not.
Many investors never actually had access to the btc they think they buy, bitmex is one example.
So as long we don't have people buying bitcoin for sake of actually using it then the strongest analysis will always come from charts whether we like it or not.
I strongly believe that fundamentals are always reflected in the charts anyway. Since Bitcoin's fundamentals are so abstract (you can't break them down to analyzable numbers like P/E ratio or P/B ratio or debt-to-equity or cash flow), I think the charts will always provide the strongest basis for analysis.
This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.
let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.
let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.
Right we already hit above $5k already so most likely $5600 is within reach maybe in the next week or so. So its going to be interesting to see your analysis based on 2014-2015 chart.
Others said that past performance is not a indication of future success, but we will see. The market is fairly young and we can also draw based on the data that we have, specially there is a eerie similarity from the 2014-2015 movement.
The problem with btc is that it has no real life use case yet, most people treat btc as it is just a random thing that could rise in value and they would be able to sell at higher price( for fiat ).
Many investors never actually had access to the btc they think they buy, bitmex is one example.
So as long we don't have people buying bitcoin for sake of actually using it then the strongest analysis will always come from charts whether we like it or not.
Many investors never actually had access to the btc they think they buy, bitmex is one example.
So as long we don't have people buying bitcoin for sake of actually using it then the strongest analysis will always come from charts whether we like it or not.
The development of value trends in the past usually tends to be more closely related in forecasting trend values in the future, so I agree with the OP. In my opinion, the dependence on trends at a better chronological point when played plays an important role (so, the order of observation's important).
The crypto market's still very vulnerable to falling prices again due to various factors mentioned by the OP (The Whales, Adoption, Lightning, Segwit, Binance, KYC and ETF) although some facts show that the current market slump is believed to be over soon. Nevertheless, we must be able to make conclusions from the realization that's happening now. And we also have to be sure that the bitcoin will 'slowly' rise in price again, so there's no doubt for investors to buy bitcoin under these conditions.
The crypto market's still very vulnerable to falling prices again due to various factors mentioned by the OP (The Whales, Adoption, Lightning, Segwit, Binance, KYC and ETF) although some facts show that the current market slump is believed to be over soon. Nevertheless, we must be able to make conclusions from the realization that's happening now. And we also have to be sure that the bitcoin will 'slowly' rise in price again, so there's no doubt for investors to buy bitcoin under these conditions.
I hope you are not trying to base your prediction on the past
not sure if you have read the OP, i am indeed basing my prediction on the past, everything that has to do with TA is based on the past.
i used to think the same way many people think, going by the theory that BTC now is different than before, it can't do this and it can't do that, but everyday this theory gets weaker and weaker.
in 2014/15 we dropped about 85% from ATH, last year when were where at 6k everybody and their mother said that there is noway we would fall below that, no way btc would fall 85% from ATH, it's different now, the whales are here,adoption , lightning ,seqwit ,Binance, ETF all these things make btc different from 2014 bla bla bla bla and then boom we fall right at almost the same % we did 5 years ago.
This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.
let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.
I hope you are not trying to base your prediction on the past because I don’t think the past chart can really decide what will happen to BTC now. For now I don’t really see Bitcoin crossing that line back to bear market, even if it will do, it will only be a little bit back to $4500, from there till the ATH speculated, by then the things contributing to its growth will decided if the price will push harder to ATH of $80k predicted by you or break along the line or pushing further to one of the $200k prediction, but I know a time will come that bitcoin will reach ATH till it becomes stable for life, by then its real objective will finally come to play. let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.
Thanks mikeywith
I hope btc will defend 4600$ move higher and will not comeback to below 4k level
tomorrow is Friday there are is little volume during weekend
Maybe weekenders will drive price up and bulls will decide to spike price higher after
There is still Brexit in play.If will be no deal than pound will lost 15% and GB will be frozen for next three months
I hope btc will defend 4600$ move higher and will not comeback to below 4k level
tomorrow is Friday there are is little volume during weekend
Maybe weekenders will drive price up and bulls will decide to spike price higher after
There is still Brexit in play.If will be no deal than pound will lost 15% and GB will be frozen for next three months
This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.
let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.
let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.
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