Topic: BTC might do something nice soon. TA only ( No crystal Ball/s) - page 4. (Read 802 times)

I am in love with the no crystal ball . That's amazing and that /s is a proof of reddit here which I will always love.

I think there is a potential of that move but anyone in bitcoin world knows that bitcoin doesn't really react the way you want and charts suggest most of the time, you can always find a way to build a chart that shows bitcoin going down or going up so its not really a proof of it going up next week.

Don't get me wrong it could totally go up and maybe we will hit 5k+ finally (which I would be super hyped about) but it could also not drop under 3850 and than just not go up neither, spend the whole next week between 3900-4100 prices and maybe even a whole another month there.

Bitcoin is very risky to trade just because of this, you can invest into bitcoin but if you want to trade bitcoin know that it could do anything at any moment.

Although history tends to repeat itself, I will warn traders to be very careful. The last year was unusual, the market moves were not always as expected.
While a "valid" rise is indeed possible, as @omonuyak also said, there's quite a chance for a bull trap too.

The nice things has began and we are seeing more of bull than red this days. If you look at the market behavior you will agree with me that since the beginning of this year those that are ready to sell are lesser than those that are ready to buy and that is a good signal about the market.

The charts look similar because of how bots have nothing but the past to fall back on, so in that regard it makes sense that things rhyme, especially without anything in the near term to spark more spontaneous buying that lifts the price above crucial resistance levels.

For now I expect more boring market activity with how the strong support and resistance levels are coming closer to each other every day that goes by. It's waiting for a strong move either up or down, and I think that's a good thing because of how we get to know more about who is actually in charge in the very short term.

All I know is that my main target to short is somewhere between the $4500-$5000 zone with how sellers are lining up to unload some coins.

My total guess would be bitcoin moves back down towards the 200 support (during April) hitting 3600 or so, then maybe by June we see it back at 4000 looking strong like it has been recently. by the time the 50 might be down to mid 4000s and we could be looking at a boost out of the bottom range above the 50 line to start the next bull market in june or july.

total guess.

cuz i don't really see a huge bull trap going to mid-5000s and then falling back down after we've had stable 3100-4100 range for 4.5 months so far. I think any serious break about low-4000s of that magnitude (and suddenly going up 1500 above the top of the bottom range would be a huge move) will signal the start of the bull market. Bitcoin isn't as volatile as it was 4 years ago when the bottom was a 50% range from $200 to $300. If it goes up 3000s to 5000s I think that's bull market start. anyway, just guessing ;p

The probability of falling below 3800$ atm is higher than breaking above current resistance, i initially had 3400$ as a target , but then the trend line seems a bit strong, so changed my target to 3650$ ,  i am shorting based on this 4h set up > https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50315484 only aiming for 6-8% , will exist with a lose should close above prev local high on the 4h chart, but as far as the med term goes, weekly candle on Sunday should be key.

Both scenarios are possible.

I personally wouldn't necessarily short bitcoin at the moment though unless you're trading on high leverage (which comes with higher risks), because I don't think it's very likely that prices will drop below the $3k bottom that we've seen as the floor thus far even if we do correct below $3.8k as you say.

A recovery is imminent at this stage, and we'll most likely see some sort of major rally before the end of the year in my opinion. But in the short term, prices can certainly continue to move down, when given the fact that the market sentiment has still not reversed imho.

well, last week I heard some analysts say that the price would fall below $ 3800 and then I saved a little money so that in case of falling below $3800 I can buy more bitcoin, it happens that I am already the waiting to fall below $ 3800 and the price did not fall, on the contrary the price went up, it seems to me that whenever the person desires something, happens the  opposite. We'll see if you will hit your forecast.

  Chart first




Green = 200 SMA
Red = 50 SMA
Yellow = 20 SMA

Chart > Weekly
---------------------------------------------------------------------


BTC right now is trading above the 20 SMA .

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

so if you are currently shorting BTC (like i am doing) , you better watch the weekly close, if you see a clear weekly candle peaking it's head above the 20SMA, you will very likely get liquidated.

The other interesting thing is this, should we drop and bounce back up from the 200 SMA( likely) , it will be very possible that we close above the 20SMA on the weekly and peak our heads to see those 5k levels again pretty soon.

note this is a weekly chart, things won't happen in a week or two, it takes months to swing between those SMAs.


also , i would like to hear what you guys think about these almost identical charts  2014-2015 vs 2018-2019. they look even more similar with the way price flirts with these SMAs.