BTC Sentiment Poll for June - page 2.

fzkto

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Quote from: uneng on June 21, 2023, 11:55:08 AM

From 26,000$ to almost 30,000$ in a single shot!

That has been an impressive bullish movement happening since yesterday. Now the challenge is to break the 30,000$ resistance level once again and remain stable above this line. I just feel regretful for selling BTC beforehand, due to believing on the predictions the price would fall once again after reading SEC is going to announce another raisement on interest rates of 0,25% for the next month and because there is going to be investment opportunities in USA on construction sector aiming to assist people in low financial standards.

Sadly, it was just a clickbait to deceive investors. Good for those who kept holding and ignored such rumours.

Indeed, bitcoin has made a very good move. Over 15% in just a few days. There is a lot of news now about different etfs, so it is hard to determine what is true and what is false. But I don't like that this growth is happening with low volumes. If you look at the chart on Binance, the volumes in the last months are really low, despite the fact that there is now explosive growth.

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Quote from: uneng on June 21, 2023, 11:55:08 AM

From 26,000$ to almost 30,000$ in a single shot!

That's certainly the most obvious way to look at the situation, personally I prefer an alternative view that consider the past year or so:

* 12 months to reclaim the 200 Week MA as support
* 6 months to develop a strong enough uptrend
* 3 months to turn $25K into support after breaking it as resistance
* 2 months correction before attempting to challenge $30K again
* 1 month to realise that negative news doesn't affect uptrend

It's easy to look at the situation and think there is no logic to such a rebound, but the other angle is that a move like this back to $30K was a long time in the making.

uneng

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From 26,000$ to almost 30,000$ in a single shot!

That has been an impressive bullish movement happening since yesterday. Now the challenge is to break the 30,000$ resistance level once again and remain stable above this line. I just feel regretful for selling BTC beforehand, due to believing on the predictions the price would fall once again after reading SEC is going to announce another raisement on interest rates of 0,25% for the next month and because there is going to be investment opportunities in USA on construction sector aiming to assist people in low financial standards.

Sadly, it was just a clickbait to deceive investors. Good for those who kept holding and ignored such rumours.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: tokeweed on June 21, 2023, 08:52:45 AM

Locked the poll as I think we have somewhat captured the ruling 'sentiment of the month' of the people who goes in this thread, which at the first couple weeks of the month, I mostly really agree with...

Now I think sentiment will slowly change to bullish the more BTC claws its way higher and slowly fights its way thru 30k - 32k resistance. If it breaks out, I think we're looking at 36k - 37k resistance next.

I'm still sticking to my sideways vote Tongue

Now we are approaching the peak of previous resistance, I'm sceptical it'll break in the coming days or even next week. I also find it unlikely price will consolidate at this higher level until the end of the month at resistance, even if possible. I still think it's likely the month will end around $27K / $28K for a minor green candle, but a doji one generally signalling indecision/continuation ie "sideways" (down/up/down).

Don't get me wrong would be happy for price to clear the recent highs and reach $36K level, which would probably be the next immediate target, but after confirming the $30K area as one year long resistance, it might well take a few more weeks or months to finally get above it. If price action in March is anything to go by then the opposite is true, as this 6 month resistance was swiftly broken, but this is yet to be seen.

One thing I do find interesting is that so far this year's price action can be summarised as follows:

January to February: $15K to $25K (+$10K)
March to April: $20K to $31K (+$11K)
June to July?: $25K to $37K? (+$12K?)

Just a theory, but by next month price could certainly reach $35K to $37K if this years 6 month momentum simply continues...

ajiz138

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Quote from: tokeweed on June 21, 2023, 08:52:45 AM

Locked the poll as I think we have somewhat captured the ruling 'sentiment of the month' of the people who goes in this thread, which at the first couple weeks of the month, I mostly really agree with...

Now I think sentiment will slowly change to bullish the more BTC claws its way higher and slowly fights its way thru 30k - 32k resistance. If it breaks out, I think we're looking at 36k - 37k resistance next.

We are seeing the bullish signs getting stronger this is happening within 24 hours bitcoin has had many breaks to resistance to $30K and it is less than a few dollars away from breaking it as june is going to be a bit better after a lot of some news big institutions buying more bitcoin a lot and that might be the big impact.

The market is now more aggressive, but will there be another break? But if you look at the analysis, it seems that this will be stronger to survive, henceforth, after June ends in July, many people expect the price of Bitcoin to move again.

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Quote from: tokeweed on June 21, 2023, 08:52:45 AM

Locked the poll as I think we have somewhat captured the ruling 'sentiment of the month' of the people who goes in this thread, which at the first couple weeks of the month, I mostly really agree with...

Now I think sentiment will slowly change to bullish the more BTC claws its way higher and slowly fights its way thru 30k - 32k resistance. If it breaks out, I think we're looking at 36k - 37k resistance next.

Yes, our mentality is changing, the market is greener, definitely, people are becoming more positive. Even though bitcoin has yet to hit $30k, I have seen many optimistic predictions that bitcoin will hit $35k before the end of the month. I never dared to think about it, but I hope like you, we need to break above $30-32k before we can think further. But I also suspect that is highly unlikely, people are excited to see bitcoin recover, but most remain cautious and still don't have any major Fomo to drive greener markets in the coming days.

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Locked the poll as I think we have somewhat captured the ruling 'sentiment of the month' of the people who goes in this thread, which at the first couple weeks of the month, I mostly really agree with...

Now I think sentiment will slowly change to bullish the more BTC claws its way higher and slowly fights its way thru 30k - 32k resistance. If it breaks out, I think we're looking at 36k - 37k resistance next.

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 18, 2023, 11:19:16 AM

Quote from: Baofeng on June 17, 2023, 06:50:45 PM

It's interesting to see where our support line is, and currently it is still $25k, we have retested that line and yet it covered nicely and it did bounce to $26k++. So we recovered from that critical level. And I think we are still going to be very bullish in the long term.

$25k has proven to be a decent support that is not going to be broken that easily (I mean break and stay below).

Apparently so! After two months waiting for a re-test of $25K, I had thought investors had given up waiting and bought at higher prices. But it seems that enough participants were patient enough here.

Quote from: pooya87 on June 18, 2023, 11:19:16 AM

As for the trend bitcoin will always be bullish in the long term but the question is about the time it would start entering the bullish trend.

The chart below is one example of why/how Bitcoin remains bullish in the long-term imo. The 50 Month MA is the purple line, it's a rough 4 year average (slgihtly longer though). Notably while the 200 Week MA didn't hold as support initially, the 50 Month MA does look like it has supported price with the wick to the downside and now price clearly back above it. We're not far of a green monthly candle either now ($200 / 10 days)

Quote from: pooya87 on June 18, 2023, 11:19:16 AM

For now I don't see the sideways trend changing and I still believe it is all about the overall global economical situation which is "severely strained".

I still think there is a lot more consolidation to come, likely until the end of the year if not longer similar to 2019 or 2015. But whether price reaches $40K or even $50K before consolidating with a correction back down to around $30K is another question. Notably the stock markets have recovered considerably, and a similar type of recovery in Bitcoin by % from ATH would see prices nearer $60K than $50K now.

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Quote from: Baofeng on June 17, 2023, 06:50:45 PM

It's interesting to see where our support line is, and currently it is still $25k, we have retested that line and yet it covered nicely and it did bounce to $26k++. So we recovered from that critical level. And I think we are still going to be very bullish in the long term.

$25k has proven to be a decent support that is not going to be broken that easily (I mean break and stay below). As for the trend bitcoin will always be bullish in the long term but the question is about the time it would start entering the bullish trend. For now I don't see the sideways trend changing and I still believe it is all about the overall global economical situation which is "severely strained".

fzkto

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Quote from: _BlackStar on June 17, 2023, 04:35:17 PM

Quote from: fzkto on June 17, 2023, 03:09:55 PM

Quote from: STT on June 16, 2023, 07:58:33 PM

-snip-

Bitcoin did make a nice bounce on Friday, but if you look at the larger timeframes, it could be looking like a downtrending highs. You are correct in saying that for a subsequent uptrend it needs to break resistance, but so far it looks like a local downtrend.

Local downtrend - what do you mean?

The downtrend should have ended if you do the analysis on 1 month TF. The market has gone through a long bearish period at the last year or over 13 months - but I think the bullish start to the recovery process has been there since 2023. However, bitcoin broke through the $31k resistance in April albeit only moments before being followed by a two month long correction. But I believe that resistance will be tested again during June or July, so keep your optimism well.

The global down trend ended last December when the price was around 15k. But now I see a local downtrend on the weekly and four-day charts. You can clearly see that the highs of the price have been declining since April. That is, the price has been declining for two months now, which could be called a local downtrend rather than a correction.

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Quote from: uchegod-21 on June 15, 2023, 12:35:05 PM

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months, I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

Nah, it is still going sideways and that's what the majority has voted as well. But I do agree that we are not going to see moon this June. And if you look at June historical logs, it's didn't look good at all so the pattern continues.

It's interesting to see where our support line is, and currently it is still $25k, we have retested that line and yet it covered nicely and it did bounce to $26k++. So we recovered from that critical level. And I think we are still going to be very bullish in the long term.

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Quote from: fzkto on June 17, 2023, 03:09:55 PM

Quote from: STT on June 16, 2023, 07:58:33 PM

-snip-

Bitcoin did make a nice bounce on Friday, but if you look at the larger timeframes, it could be looking like a downtrending highs. You are correct in saying that for a subsequent uptrend it needs to break resistance, but so far it looks like a local downtrend.

Local downtrend - what do you mean?

The downtrend should have ended if you do the analysis on 1 month TF. The market has gone through a long bearish period at the last year or over 13 months - but I think the bullish start to the recovery process has been there since 2023. However, bitcoin broke through the $31k resistance in April albeit only moments before being followed by a two month long correction. But I believe that resistance will be tested again during June or July, so keep your optimism well.

fzkto

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Quote from: STT on June 16, 2023, 07:58:33 PM

Clearly Im a trading god, or possibly it just bounced in a fairly predictable area after some slightly more positive news and a dollar index moving down. All factors which can help but to complete this move in a proper way not just a ping pong back and forth action we really need to recover above and confirm the 50 day average regularly as below BTC price action. At present we are capped by prior negative action and that is not dispelled by one day especially.

Bitcoin did make a nice bounce on Friday, but if you look at the larger timeframes, it could be looking like a downtrending highs. You are correct in saying that for a subsequent uptrend it needs to break resistance, but so far it looks like a local downtrend.

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Quote from: uchegod-21 on June 16, 2023, 07:38:18 PM

Quote from: ShowOff on June 15, 2023, 04:02:26 PM

Quote from: uchegod-21 on June 15, 2023, 12:35:05 PM

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/06/15/AxORo.jpeg

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months, I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

I also don't think June will look like a sideway as bitcoin prices tend to fall and test new support. $24k has been support in the last 24 hours although currently the price has bounced slightly above $25k.

But ultimately I think June will also show some upside to counter the FUD that's going on. The SEC is urged to protect investors rather than drown them with its attacks on Binance and other exchanges, so the impact is bound to diminish gradually. So from that some other positives should also support the upside although I can't expect any bullishness in the near term.

The June is fast in recovery. Bitcoin doesn't want to settle long below 25k and that is why it had to bounce back with 24hrs from 24k to 26k. That is a decent shortest term movement and I believe some people benefited from it.

Talking about SEC being able to secure and protect people's investment and not to do otherwise. Sec is only interested in the interests of bond and stock investors, while they are in daily war with exchanges in determination of security coins.

Bitcoin has gone up to $26k and the next target is $27k and even $30k,
but we also have to remember that this is a weekend, where manipulation often occurs,
so hopefully this isn't a Bull Trap, and hopefully yesterday was a bear trap.

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Quote from: uchegod-21 on June 15, 2023, 12:35:05 PM

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months, I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

We can focus on the price with the important developments in June, the current status of the institutions and other details. Major events on the macro front for Bitcoin had a huge impact in June. I would say SEC lawsuits are the most important of them. In the first week of May, we saw the sales of investors who bought billions of dollars of BTC in January. This caused a serious decline in the markets. The decrease in the effectiveness of market makers such as Jump Trading dried up the liquidity at the same time.

As a result we see shallow liquidity and low volatility. It is not possible for the historically low volatility of Bitcoin price to continue in this way. We could see a big price move in both directions soon. I think closings above $27k will push the Bitcoin price above $30k in the short term. The low volatility period can be completed with an upside breakout.

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Clearly Im a trading god, or possibly it just bounced in a fairly predictable area after some slightly more positive news and a dollar index moving down. All factors which can help but to complete this move in a proper way not just a ping pong back and forth action we really need to recover above and confirm the 50 day average regularly as below BTC price action. At present we are capped by prior negative action and that is not dispelled by one day especially.

uchegod-21

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Quote from: ShowOff on June 15, 2023, 04:02:26 PM

Quote from: uchegod-21 on June 15, 2023, 12:35:05 PM

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/06/15/AxORo.jpeg

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months, I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

I also don't think June will look like a sideway as bitcoin prices tend to fall and test new support. $24k has been support in the last 24 hours although currently the price has bounced slightly above $25k.

But ultimately I think June will also show some upside to counter the FUD that's going on. The SEC is urged to protect investors rather than drown them with its attacks on Binance and other exchanges, so the impact is bound to diminish gradually. So from that some other positives should also support the upside although I can't expect any bullishness in the near term.

The June is fast in recovery. Bitcoin doesn't want to settle long below 25k and that is why it had to bounce back with 24hrs from 24k to 26k. That is a decent shortest term movement and I believe some people benefited from it.

Talking about SEC being able to secure and protect people's investment and not to do otherwise. Sec is only interested in the interests of bond and stock investors, while they are in daily war with exchanges in determination of security coins.

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Quote from: tokeweed on June 16, 2023, 08:27:06 AM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 15, 2023, 11:56:10 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on June 15, 2023, 08:39:34 AM

And I'm not really sure why you're saying support is at 23k because this is what I'm looking at... 25k or so was tested twice during August and Feb, before finally breaking out at March. Now it seems like it has flipped back to being resistance.

It's because $23K is the volume support, whereas there isn't a lot of support volume between $24K and $26.5K. It's also very close to the 200 Day MA* ~~currently around $22.5K that within the coming days will be at $23K~~. As you can see there is increasing volume support from $25K down to $23K, but similar to the correction in March, price came down to the peak of this volume support before reversing to the upside.

In summary, the same reason I was bullish about $20K acting as support, while others were fearing much worse prices, is more of the less the exact same reason why I see $23K acting as a support level. Arguably there is more chance of $23K acting as support than there was of $20K back in March, as back then the 200 DMA was barely rising, whereas now it's been in an uptrend for the past 3 months.

It's also partially due to the market mentally. Most were/are expecting $25K to act as support, somewhat similar to those who thought $22K/$23K would act as support back in March, whereas instead it failed. If most people expect old resistance to turn into new support it probably won't, especially with price effectively in a neutral zone between the 50 Day MA (declining bearish) and 200 Day MA (rising bullish).

Naturally I'd have a completely different opinion if for example the re-test of $25K was in line with some other support level, like the 50 Day MA, or otherwise the 200 Day MA, but this isn't the case. Old resistance on it's own turning into new support just seems unlikely to me, especially now the 200 WMA has broken. Whereas the confluence of support as described at $23K looks a lot more appealing to me.

Also the 50 Week MA has just started trending back upwards in the past few weeks for the first time in around 18 months and is priced around $22.5K. This is usually a defining factor or a confirmed trend reversal, similar to January 2022 when it flipped bearish, even if somewhat delayed. In summary, if $25K is the short-term support level, $22K to $23K is the long-term support level here.

*Had the wrong MA on that chart, it should have been the 200 which is currently at $23.7K (not 260 ie 5 year which is at $22.5K).

Ah right. Maybe I should start looking at the volume too next time as mostly I've just been looking at the price action when looking for support, resistance and when they flip.

Personally I've found that volume is key, not just support/resistance, MAs and other indicators. Volume is ultimately were the "interest" from buyers & sellers lies.

Quote from: tokeweed on June 16, 2023, 08:27:06 AM

Is the blue and yellow area graph on the right all the liquidity in the order book? Makes sense if it is. But the thing is traders can pull their orders out anytime. So I'd not put too much stock in it.

Nothing to do with order book, this is a common misconception. It's purely buying/selling volume. Yellow is buying and blue is selling.

Quote from: tokeweed on June 16, 2023, 08:27:06 AM

Anyway, yesterday's daily candle closed above 25k - 25.3k and it's holding today.

Despite my pessimism about $25K acting as support, there is certainly buying pressure from this level. Currently observing >$26K and it look promising. I'd still be surprised if price managed to reverse from this level, rather than remain in the downtrend channel and continue lower, but can't argue there is certainly buying pressure. How the Weekly closes could be of interest at this point.

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 15, 2023, 11:56:10 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on June 15, 2023, 08:39:34 AM

And I'm not really sure why you're saying support is at 23k because this is what I'm looking at... 25k or so was tested twice during August and Feb, before finally breaking out at March. Now it seems like it has flipped back to being resistance.

It's because $23K is the volume support, whereas there isn't a lot of support volume between $24K and $26.5K. It's also very close to the 200 Day MA* ~~currently around $22.5K that within the coming days will be at $23K~~. As you can see there is increasing volume support from $25K down to $23K, but similar to the correction in March, price came down to the peak of this volume support before reversing to the upside.

In summary, the same reason I was bullish about $20K acting as support, while others were fearing much worse prices, is more of the less the exact same reason why I see $23K acting as a support level. Arguably there is more chance of $23K acting as support than there was of $20K back in March, as back then the 200 DMA was barely rising, whereas now it's been in an uptrend for the past 3 months.

It's also partially due to the market mentally. Most were/are expecting $25K to act as support, somewhat similar to those who thought $22K/$23K would act as support back in March, whereas instead it failed. If most people expect old resistance to turn into new support it probably won't, especially with price effectively in a neutral zone between the 50 Day MA (declining bearish) and 200 Day MA (rising bullish).

Naturally I'd have a completely different opinion if for example the re-test of $25K was in line with some other support level, like the 50 Day MA, or otherwise the 200 Day MA, but this isn't the case. Old resistance on it's own turning into new support just seems unlikely to me, especially now the 200 WMA has broken. Whereas the confluence of support as described at $23K looks a lot more appealing to me.

Also the 50 Week MA has just started trending back upwards in the past few weeks for the first time in around 18 months and is priced around $22.5K. This is usually a defining factor or a confirmed trend reversal, similar to January 2022 when it flipped bearish, even if somewhat delayed. In summary, if $25K is the short-term support level, $22K to $23K is the long-term support level here.

*Had the wrong MA on that chart, it should have been the 200 which is currently at $23.7K (not 260 ie 5 year which is at $22.5K).

Ah right. Maybe I should start looking at the volume too next time as mostly I've just been looking at the price action when looking for support, resistance and when they flip.

Is the blue and yellow area graph on the right all the liquidity in the order book? Makes sense if it is. But the thing is traders can pull their orders out anytime. So I'd not put too much stock in it.

Anyway, yesterday's daily candle closed above 25k - 25.3k and it's holding today.

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Quote from: ningrum on June 15, 2023, 02:20:00 PM

Quote from: uchegod-21 on June 15, 2023, 12:35:05 PM

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months, I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

For almost 2 weeks Bitcoin is still in range $25k to $28k,
and at the end of this week bitcoin has not made any big movements it can be sure that it is sideways this month,
indeed the market looks boring and volatile for altcoins,
look at bitcoin only dropping -2% to -5% and altcoin prices are down up to -10% to -25%.

Not just for 2 weeks, we have been in this sideways training for months now if I'm not mistaken. At the start of May, the market we've experience price drop and then this pattern emerges. And with the negative news about SEC vs Binance, it continue to go down hard. In the last 24 hours, we have seen the price really dumping and at highs of $24,000. The good thing is that we have a good bounce back today, not sure why the reason of the sudden plunge in a day, like -2% very quick. But the price has recovered from where it was, currently at $25,600+ and we might go back to $26,000. And another positive news is that we were able to hold the support like of $25,000. Because if not, then obviously we might go down to $23,000.

Topic: BTC Sentiment Poll for June - page 2. (Read 679 times)