BTC Long Term Analisys - 05-05-2019 by CryptoReggae
I try to update my long-term analysis,
since the last real analysis was made by me on March 15th with a target of 5.1k (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50171268), but then in practice by me moved to $5215 and closed there. From $5215 touched on April 3rd I closed all LONG positions.
After a very long ride that began at the February low, we reached the new highs of the year touched yesterday, 4 May 2019.
The climb, although I expected, was in my opinion very "supported", almost forced, with volumes not worthy of such a climb, as if to close the swing in advance.
The bullish push we can imagine that very soon it will be exhausted, a matter of hours / days.
What to expect in the coming weeks/months?
We are in the SWING area, or the strength of the bulls is at its peak. The inversion area is between $5780/$6345 (Bitstamp value, Kraken, NO USDT).
We could expect an acceleration of the events, in particular driven by the expected news of Bitfinex and the possible Ban mining in probable arrival from China, but this will not go to alter the movement but only speed it up.
We keep 6k area under consideration, which besides being a psychologically strong area, is an area of very strong pressures (sell/buy), and as always in a trade we have only two possibilities, go long or go short. So what to do?
In my opinion we have 3 possible scenarios, 1 of a reversal occurred and 2 of a Bearish Trend recovery. I announce immediately that in my opinion the Bearish Trend is far from over, indeed, it iswe will still have quite a bit.
Possible scenarios
1) BTC exceeds 6k with strength and volume and the FOMO starts
2) BTC tries a 6k test, we pass the 6k and the Fomo starts, but it's a False Breakout
3) BTC tries a timid test of the maximum ($ 5870) and reverses
I personally would totally exclude scenario 1) (more than 6k and fomo) for many reasons that I have already explained several times in the past and that I don't want to repeat.
The most probable are, in my opinion, scenario 2) and 3), with higher probabilities for scenario 2).
An attempt to break 6k would unleash the FOMO of the little ones, because that area is psychologically very strong in people, but at the same time it is an area where the shorters and long trade longhers have their orders waiting to unleash the sell. In my last trade I was talking about this "risk" of triggering a FOMO without a real technical response, here we are, in part, already entered this "mode".
In conclusion, my operational strategy will be to place the short stiles, then more short orders, in an area between $5870 and $6345, with a very first target in the area 4172/4046, where I will eventually be able to lighten the positions (even if this is premature now, so I'll go back to doing the analysis later before setting up any sells).
Following the chart.
https://i.imgur.com/xmqkgwX.png
I try to update my long-term analysis,
since the last real analysis was made by me on March 15th with a target of 5.1k (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50171268), but then in practice by me moved to $5215 and closed there. From $5215 touched on April 3rd I closed all LONG positions.
After a very long ride that began at the February low, we reached the new highs of the year touched yesterday, 4 May 2019.
The climb, although I expected, was in my opinion very "supported", almost forced, with volumes not worthy of such a climb, as if to close the swing in advance.
The bullish push we can imagine that very soon it will be exhausted, a matter of hours / days.
What to expect in the coming weeks/months?
We are in the SWING area, or the strength of the bulls is at its peak. The inversion area is between $5780/$6345 (Bitstamp value, Kraken, NO USDT).
We could expect an acceleration of the events, in particular driven by the expected news of Bitfinex and the possible Ban mining in probable arrival from China, but this will not go to alter the movement but only speed it up.
We keep 6k area under consideration, which besides being a psychologically strong area, is an area of very strong pressures (sell/buy), and as always in a trade we have only two possibilities, go long or go short. So what to do?
In my opinion we have 3 possible scenarios, 1 of a reversal occurred and 2 of a Bearish Trend recovery. I announce immediately that in my opinion the Bearish Trend is far from over, indeed, it iswe will still have quite a bit.
Possible scenarios
1) BTC exceeds 6k with strength and volume and the FOMO starts
2) BTC tries a 6k test, we pass the 6k and the Fomo starts, but it's a False Breakout
3) BTC tries a timid test of the maximum ($ 5870) and reverses
I personally would totally exclude scenario 1) (more than 6k and fomo) for many reasons that I have already explained several times in the past and that I don't want to repeat.
The most probable are, in my opinion, scenario 2) and 3), with higher probabilities for scenario 2).
An attempt to break 6k would unleash the FOMO of the little ones, because that area is psychologically very strong in people, but at the same time it is an area where the shorters and long trade longhers have their orders waiting to unleash the sell. In my last trade I was talking about this "risk" of triggering a FOMO without a real technical response, here we are, in part, already entered this "mode".
In conclusion, my operational strategy will be to place the short stiles, then more short orders, in an area between $5870 and $6345, with a very first target in the area 4172/4046, where I will eventually be able to lighten the positions (even if this is premature now, so I'll go back to doing the analysis later before setting up any sells).
Following the chart.
https://i.imgur.com/xmqkgwX.png
The analysis was invalidated by the break, but personally I am not convinced of this climb.
The 6k were one of the most difficult resistances to break, and it was broken with impressive ease, most likely facilitated by the unfinished Bitfinex / Tether story, where users purchased BTC to exit the platform.
At this point we have to wait for the first real retracement, and from there we will understand if it is a real inversion, or it will be like I fear a false breackout
I don't think Bitfinex would have enough market share to be able to make the price rise from like $5000 to $8000. This might of been possible with MtGox because it was pretty much the only exchange but Bitfinex lost alot of its volume from the 2017 days.
I think its just a continuation of the April 1st pump which was before all this Bitfinex fud.
I would say that this rally maybe up to $7000 area was driven by bears which were short covering. I think many of them shorted the $6000 area and it was proved by the funding rate and open interest that many bears shorted that area, and when we broke $7000 most of them just took the loss and covered.
