Topic: BTC Technical Analysis - page 2. (Read 524 times)

Everyone has their own strategy, and the yardstick is: does it make you earn? if the answer is yes then you are following the right strategy.

Given this, BTC's movements can be analyzed with Technical Analysis which helps to understand how to operate on the market. Then also everyone has their own strategy.
Just look at the last few days (but this has always been the case) that BTC is moving only and exclusively for TECHNICAL factors. But I repeat, everyone has their own strategy, and I'm no one to judge fairness or not.

I tried to stimulate the community to face technical discussions, publishing graphics, but apparently this does not interest anyone.

I didn't want to publish only my (probably wrong) ideas, but my intent was to stir the discussion.

In this forum I see that almost everyone thinks like you, so I will consider whether it still makes sense to publish my charts. I will leave you one last post and last analysis, and if anyone cares, let me point out, at least I will have a reason to continue this practically SOLITARY discussion.

I have already desisted from using all these analysis in monitoring the performance of a coin because one thing I believe I this, news does better. Some years back when BTC was just rising, it was via news I kept monitoring the performance.

I only make use of technical analysis when there is need to buy coins in order to guide me one when to enter the market but when it comes to its performance, I can’t give myself unnecessary heartache, which is one of the reason I downloaded block folio to monitor the growth of all my coins.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/swsCgGk2/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/stc6m72v/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eBCaD134Y/

Drop is possible but the price now is not moving to that direction.
I am not expecting a price increase but here we are, we are once again in the area where people starts to get bullish.
Price currently is $3,878.24 and $3,900 on some exchange, possibly we could retest the resistance again.

Every time the pips move north of EMA 50 there's a higher chance of a breakout with an almost certain probability.
Since you are in crypto's its safer to calculate EMA instead of SMA. The latter tends to be slower to react when prices shift quickly.

I quoted your post in order to show your image.

Currently, I do not see any correction in the crypto currency market. Several hours ago there was a small dip, but now Bitcoin is growing by +4% and its price is again above $3800.

According to your chart, BTC is still in the "SMA 50" area. As I see, crypto investors look optimistic, so I guess that the resistance level of $4100 will be surmounted soon.

I see that many hodlers are expecting price bull anytime now but I suspect that we are still in bear areas. I'm seeing the hammer candles though for reversal but still expecting more drop around $3650 - 3600.

💊 BTC TA Update

In the last analysis I focused on two important supports, in particular on the $3693 (monthly closing November 2018) that the SMA 100 Daily has come to reinforce.
BTC has stopped here its sales, bouncing and triggering a recovery that currently works under the old support now become resistance to $3730.68, a possible break of this first resistance should not raise concerns for the bears, but at the same time could generate a further recovery up to just under $3800. A breakdown of the resistances $3789/$3791 would trigger a series of stop losses for the shorter.

Instead, looking at the supports, the $3693 support, the SMA 100 Daily $3681 and the SMA 200 at 4h $3660 gain considerable importance in terms of containment, and a possible break of these supports would significantly increase the bearish strength, with broad probabilities of then go on to test a large confluence area rich in supports even if very very weak in terms of content; this area ranges from $3660 up to the monthly support of $3413.


Upcoming important supports:
- $3693 highly important
- $3681 SMA 100 Daily
- $3660 SMA 200 4H


Important resistance:
- $3730 moderately important
- $3789/3791 very highly important


My personal opinion is that the long-term bearish push has not ended, and that even a possible recovery remains physiological in the technical field and that it should not scare who is SHORT.
In the medium term, even after a slight recovery, a retest of the lows can be expected, and only from there will it be possible to acquire more information for a long term.

Short rest and keep the short open.

💊 BTC Update

The breakdown of the SMA 100 brought moderate sales to BTC, which is currently working under the monthly resistance of $ 3791; at the same time the SMA 100 has now become a resistance.
Any positive closing of the weekly candle could slow down its movements (a moderately positive sign), but we are continuing towards a short-term confirmation of the downtrend.

Upcoming important supports:
- $ 3730 moderately important
- $ 3693 highly important

Important resistance:
- SMA 100
- SMA 50
- $ 3791
- $ 3971


I keep my Short open and continue with my bearish idea.

/

I don't see a reversal. I am still bearish for another year at least. (2 most likely)

Don't raise you hopes till you see the price above $6k. And It won't be easy to raise the price to that level. The amount of dumpers from $15k+ made it even harder this time. It took exactly 3 years for a recovery. 2014-2017.

This time it will probably take even longer.

It is not enough to overcome it, there is a need to validate it, otherwise it is possible a deception like the last time, an obvious false breakout that has deceived many traders.I do not think this happens, we are taking a bearish confirmation direction.

The sideways being witnessed is possibly a sign that we could have a strong move. Even though the move could be in the direction of bull, I will just wait to see price get above $4000.

Nice,you nail that. And i agree its not because rsi its because that area hv been resistance for sometimes now.

I agree, even more so if you want to analyze the book (I personally do not like it).

If you want to analyze the book I think the best choice is to go where you make the largest volumes, and BitMex (for USD) and Bitfinex / Binance (USDT) are the best choices, even if I repeat, analyze the book I do not find it personally much reliable

Don't do any TA or Order analysis based on Poloniex Tethered BTC. They were a big exchange back in 2015 but now they hardly have any volume.

Use Binanace if you want to see the USDT pairs. Or just use Bitmex perps or the Coinbase BTCUSD charts.

Most of the trading done on Poloniex is bots and there are spikes from time to time. Order book is meaning less on Poloniex.

I think it's a probable move, but not because of the RSI but rather for other technical factors.

At the top of your movement there is a confluence area that has already been tested several times, and it is an area with important resistances, I have highlighted it on the chart as a green area, it is actually an area where I previously opened a short , and it was an area then broken only by a false breakout. (the difference in prices you find on my chart is only dependent on the spread between USD and USDT. I use Bitstamp because it has a longer-term BTC history and it was useful when we touched the SMA 200 which was the rebound point on 3k).


Who follows me on my channel knows well that area because I analyzed it not long ago, and was precisely the area of ​​my short start; this is a graph of a few days ago

As you can see the one you indicated for the inversion is actually an area that comes from far away, and has already been tested several times.

It was a long closing area and short opening, and could be further retested, but I would not be so sure, I find it more likely a continuation of the descent, but as I said I would not be surprised if we went to retest that area.

Whoa, we are facing a sideways for now. Trading bitcoin pair usdt is difficult today, but it could be possible if you are watching the market closely. I think it's better for us to leave the market for a while until we see a new sign to buy or to sell later.

I check on the poloniex, and it seems traders don't want to buy or sell, and it makes the price moves too slow because there are no significant movements from the trade. It could be a nice trap for people who want to buy or sell the bitcoin because everything can change in the next second.

And if you want to buy bitcoin, I suggest to wait for a while, or you can wait for 1 hour and see if there is a change within the market so you can decide it later. Still, it is unpredictable situations, and once we make a buy and sell order, we realize with the consequences for making that decision so that you won't regret it later.

By the way, here is mine:



And here is the order buy and sell position (maybe it changed after I post this)



In that image, you see that at many level price, there is 2 or 3 btc trying to block the price to not moves to higher or lower so once this is moves or disappear, then we could expecting to see the price will move again.

Here is the Trade History:



Besides that, by watching the Trade History, we could see how long one transaction got executed on the market so we could predict how much the price will increase or decrease. It is only a prediction, and you need to make your own research to know the truth.

The price only moves on one level price and then moves again, and it happens over and over in this hour and only filled small order buy and sell.

So be careful of the trap, and don't too greedy to make a bigger profit from now on.

Here my technical analysis, what you think?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3HwiKxID-my-analysis-3-3-2019/