Topic: BTC technicals are against ATH. Liquidate - page 3. (Read 821 times)

And hence the probabilities.
TA works because people see it. People see it so it works. Its a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Work on probabilities and you will never lose money on trading.

Do not believe everything TA says, we are in a world where TA means nothing right now and everything is purely human at this point. Humans makes mistakes all the time, not even just about bitcoin, they make mistakes about basically everything. Which means even if TA show that it should be going down, even if people should sell, even if everything basically says get out, people will not do it because there is a hype going around bitcoin and they want to be a part of this hype, which is why they will not let it go.

This is going to be a bit tough because we can't continue to go up forever, hence at some point people will stop, however when they stop it will not be about TA since almost all of us do not look at that to make a decision.

Here is the thing with waiting for it to break $20K and buying it at like $20.5K or $21K. I see one or 2 things happening here.

First one is that it will break $20K and head straight to like $23-25K or so. What do you do then? Buy it at $25K. Seems very risky. Another most likely scenario is that it will break $20K, go to like $21K and then go back down below the $20K and start to go towards the $19K basically be a fake out pretty much.

Remember what happened in Nov 2018? It broke $6K and many people wanted to sell at a loss at $5.9K, however it never went to $5.9K went to like $5.6K and headed straight down right away towards the $3K. So if it was this easy everybody would be trading this scenario.

Alt coins have higher volatility then BTC, its not usually the move of the risk adverse to do so.   You might be right on trading but superior performance is coming with higher risk or effectively its a leveraged play.

Im not too negative on BTC right now but it should be watched carefully, we are breaking the trendline or channel for the last month however this would need confirmation as break of trend occurred last week also but recovered to end the week positively.
   We rose from the 2 day average at the start of friday action, broke down below with the biggest bar of the day then dragged along the bottom of the trend till near close of the working week and now finally we are ending with a push below trend and towards the weekly average.   If we cross below 18500 and end this week on Sunday in such a way it could develop negatively further, however we may yet recover still.   I doubt we are moving downwards without hesitation.

Technicals are not always right, they are sometimes right and sometimes wrong, we do not know which one this will be. However, I have to say ever since $14k the greed index has been looking like it is skyrocketing and bitcoin still didn't stopped and finally broke the ATH price for example. People assumed we weren't breaking it and we were dropping and look where we are right now, finally over the ATH price after 3 years.

In the past 3 years there has been some people who even went as far as saying we would never break the ATH price, and we proved them wrong as well. Do not ever doubt bitcoin price, I am not saying it will not go down, it always goes down eventually, but never assume it will not go to certain price but it can be at any price any moment and shock you.

I didn’t see any strong rationale for the assumptions in the first post. There is a chance that the "forecast" will coincide with what will happen, but it will only be a coincidence - every day many people make forecasts and the fact that someone guesses is inevitable.

Its up to someones choice because it would really be moving neither of those path its up if its goes down or rise after breaking its ath but to presume that
media will surely publish news about such breakout and this is where hype and interest will flow in.Next? Sell out for those who bought earlier and lets hope
that there would be no bad crash out into the price and able to withhold but if not then we would be seeing an another 2017 scenario but i observed that
it wont really be the same if basing to the level of adoption.

Not possible. Selling around $21,000 by existing investors is not at all feasible. If they have to sell, they would sell at $19800 or so only. Because for $1,000, they won't stay in the game.

Plus there is going to be short sqeezing. Above $21,000, there is going to be a swift $4000 - $5000 move, if that happens.

Yes if it breaks 21,000 media will write about it and investors will come in but they will not be the one to liquidate the bitcoin market. I mean those new investors that will come in because of bitcoin bull won't be the one taking profit because those who are hodling already from early buy will be the one to take profit immediately which is likely going to cause the back move to bear but it could be temporary because next year will bull.

what are you talking about? all the technicals and fundamentals and any other way that you look at bitcoin all are signalling for the new ATH and at least a year of bull market where price keeps rising without any stops apart from the obvious small corrections.

getting pumped for a short time just because of some hype (fork airdrop, etc.) is not important at all. sustaining the rise is what matters and the altcoins that get hyped and then pumped have never been capable of keeping their price up.

Yeah, been there, see that once bitcoin goes to the top and bubble, there could be investors liquidating their bitcoin assets and then moving to alts that's why we saw ethereum and xrp making their own ath when bitcoin was already on the downward spiral.

But OP, we have to understand that we haven't reach the top yet, this is just 2016 for me, less likely that we will see bitcoin investors suddenly selling off in favor of altcoin market, not as this point as we haven't touch any ath yet.

I see where you're coming from, but you have to recognize how little historical data we have.

In 2013, BTC blasted through the 2011 ATH like a hot knife through butter. There was barely any resistance. In contrast, in 2017 BTC struggled a lot with the 2013 ATH, correcting harshly back below it in January and March.

So before you assume jumping into alts is a good plan, you might want to make sure BTC is actually at a major top first. Even then, there is no guarantee altcoin season will kick off at that point just like March 2017. It's possible, but too early to say. I hate jumping the gun with altcoins.

Holding for short term isn't a good idea unless you are a trader or you are buying Bitcoin for the long term.
Now if you are saying that holding Bitcoin isn't a good idea then you might be wrong. It will depend on the plans and target of the investor.

Bitcoin isn't even reached the breakout of $21,000 like you said but the media is hyping it already and they are interviewing different crypto investors.
Moving to alts isn't a bad idea though but if you are a trader, possible you move to alts as they are more volatile and you get more profit to it than Bitcoin but on the other hand if you are an hodler then just buy Bitcoin but wait for a correction to maximize your profits.

Overall, moving to alts isn't a good idea unless you are a trader and preventing those investors into holding Bitcoin isn't a good idea too.

Thanks for pointing that out! I like people with opinions and this is well-taken!

In my defence, BTC at the top - ATH, and there is obviously going to be huge barrier here. Do you see a 100% move in BTC here, should it move above $20,000? If yes, it's good. If not (which I think will happen), you have literally exited BTC at the top which is $19700 or whatever and moved your money to coins like ripple or cardano or tron which still have 2x upside left if not more.

If they are connected, definitely they will move in the same direction. If BTC going $40k (if at all), ripple and cardano may be trading at 2.5 - 3x atleast which means you would have made more money in these than BTC.

If BTC comes crashing down, ripple etc may fall as well, less in correlation with BTC.

I believe a good way to trade this is by moving to alts.

Open to discussion and debate!

What the hell is this advise? Move bitcoin to alts? Lol, one of the worst if not the worst advise that I have heard in this forum for a long time. Regardless if we didn't get to a new all time high, I wouldn't liquidate my bitcoin assets in favor or alts. I'm not against alts by the way, but they are move volatile that bitcoin that it wouldn't make sense for a bitcoin holder. And we have seen the correlation with alts, if BTC fails then the rest of the alts followed.

Everyone who has been around a little while or bothered to ever look at altcoin charts knows that altcoins are always in the dumping mode in the long run but more importantly if bitcoin price were to go down, the altcoin prices dump a lot harder than bitcoin price.
Suggesting move to altcoins is like throwing your money away.

Not to mention that since altcoins only have pump and dumps, they are suitable for experienced traders who know how to make profit from pump and dump otherwise it leads to disasters.

Possibly, but it's a risky move until the ALT/BTC uptrend is confirmed. If BTCUSD continues surging above $20K, those pairs are liable to bleed back down as ALT/USD pairs stagnate. If BTCUSD crashes, altcoins are liable to crash harder too. In both cases, you'll be losing BTC.

If BTCUSD fails near $20K in the short term and ALT/BTC and ALT/USD pairs spike upwards (like March 2017), then hell yes. That's got "altcoin season" written all over it.

Looks like that drop to $16k may have just been a bear trap instead of a full on correction - as full on correction probably would have brought it to $11k-$13k and lasted for much longer.

At this point, with Bitcoin back up to $19k and actually went higher today and broke the ATH on a few exchanges, I'd say there are two possibilities for the near future:
1. This is a double top at ATH and we will soon see a full on correction to $11k-$13k
2. $16k was a bear trap and this thing is gonna push over $20k and maybe go a few thousand higher before a full 30%-40% correction hits.

Right now I'd say 60/40 that it isn't a double top and it will push higher soon.

Altcoins may get a day or two of pump when Bitcoin does correct, but they also might just start bleeding worse than Bitcoin immediately whenever Bitcoin does start falling. Moving from BTC to altcoins is not a good idea. Right now it's time to keep the coins you have and see if this pump continues. Good traders loaded up on more coins on that recent drop and are in a better position than they were before the drop. We might see a couple waves of switching between Bitcoin moving up and altcoins moving up. Altcoins moved up well yesterday but bitcoin is taking charge so far today. I'd like to see Bitcoin pump over $20k maybe tomorrow, then stabilize for a day or two as altcoins pump 10-20% higher, followed by bitcoin hitting $22k or $23k this weekend and alts pumping as well, before a full on correction that brings everything down 30-40% and lasts until January.

Last high at around $20k. This time it is double top! I'd say, even if there is a small breakout, it has to sustain with volumes. Which is why the next buying point could be $21,000 providing confirmation. Plus media news will start. New investors will roll in.
It's a big barrier. If you are holding from $5k, do you have a target in mind? Where does this stop? You need to have a plan I believe. This is my plan. You may agree or not is totally fine.

If you don't have a target, then where is the exit strategy? Atleast for altcoins, we now know the levels. That is my point.

Open to further comments and discussion on this

All your strategy and analysis is good except moving to altcoins during this current position of BTC since altcoins always follow the BTC price movement especially during massive dump. Converting in to stable is more appropriate for securing profit and re-enter just like what you said once there is already a confirmation.

It's ok to miss some profit opportunity, The most important is securing profit no matter how much it is rather than losing it because you chase all the profit possibility.