The discussions about price do not consider one important caveat, which was amply demonstrated by 'another' coin:
Say, bitcoin split into "Core" and "Classic", which is quite possible. Because of much more difference of opinion, this split could be 70:30 or even 60:40 in relative value. In such case(s), rarely anyone would trade "old" coins that existed before the split because if you don't trade them, you get coins on both chains, similar to a stock split. Rational individual would expect many more such splits to occur in the future, therefore keeping such "old" coins will increase your future wealth.
As a result, people will trade "new" post-split coins furiously, but keep "old" bitcoin for a long time, decreasing liquidity.
Therefore, total value of all bitcoins might be increasing to, say, $5000, but each individual split "bitcoin chain" would have much lesser value and it would be difficult for each participant to know on which chain to purchase coins.
Before the "other" coin split i thought that "there will be only one" scenario as more likely, but now i see that multiple clones or chains can exist simultaneously. I don't particularly like this as it makes economic decisions much more difficult.
Say, bitcoin split into "Core" and "Classic", which is quite possible. Because of much more difference of opinion, this split could be 70:30 or even 60:40 in relative value. In such case(s), rarely anyone would trade "old" coins that existed before the split because if you don't trade them, you get coins on both chains, similar to a stock split. Rational individual would expect many more such splits to occur in the future, therefore keeping such "old" coins will increase your future wealth.
As a result, people will trade "new" post-split coins furiously, but keep "old" bitcoin for a long time, decreasing liquidity.
Therefore, total value of all bitcoins might be increasing to, say, $5000, but each individual split "bitcoin chain" would have much lesser value and it would be difficult for each participant to know on which chain to purchase coins.
Before the "other" coin split i thought that "there will be only one" scenario as more likely, but now i see that multiple clones or chains can exist simultaneously. I don't particularly like this as it makes economic decisions much more difficult.
This is a good point, but I expect this problem will be avoided with Bitcoin. I think there would already have been a fork if they hadn't considered this possibility. Since the Chinese control 80% of the market, I would suggest the rest of the world will follow. In any case, a Bitcoin Classic would be a much smaller fraction and most likely supported by us stubborn Westerners.
This has happened before with other coins, and eventually they hold outs gave up. Not saying this will happen with Etherium Classic, but I could see the price rising higher and falling very flat, very suddenly.
