Currently all BTC are worth about $50 million. If someone with $50 million were to come into the market today the price would double.
$50 mill would make the price go *much* higher than double. I've commented on a similar misunderstanding earlier: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.485869 
Topic: BTC Value is Irrelevant (Read 2341 times)
Like it or not, there's no way of avoiding the real economy and other currencies when dealing with bitcoins, therefore bitcoins' value versus other currencies will always be very important. While bitcoins can fluctuate 15%+ on a daily basis no one will seriously use them for commerce unless: the bitcoin price carries a large premium over the dollar price (why use bitcoins then?), or the merchant employs dynamic pricing that changes every few hours or even minutes (and immediately heads over to MtGox to cash out).
When someone buys a car or land, they have to report the value they bought it for and same for the person selling either of these. How would they work with bitcoins?
Now it would be possible to get cute and say the employees don't have any income as they get paid in bitcoins instead of dollars, but try explaining that to a judge when the employee is taken to court for tax evasion (the representing lawyer will demand dollars instead of bitcoins too).
Stock options aren't taxed, right? I heard Microsoft had a tax evasion scheme with stock options that was perfectly legal. You could pay the employees minimum wage plus a bonus in bitcoins.
Stock options usually aren't taxed (check your local tax laws) as they're worthless until the stock's price reaches a certain value for you to cash them in. Microsoft's scheme wasn't a tax evasion scheme: it was an incentive scheme and a way to pay sub par wages all in one. If the employees built successful products the share price went up and options could be cashed in. Likewise Microsoft could promise lots of options while paying lower wages on the bet that the option price would never be reached (unknown to the employee). Stock options for CEOs and boards serve a different purpose. They are a strong incentive to raise the share price by any means possible.
Like it or not, there's no way of avoiding the real economy and other currencies when dealing with bitcoins, therefore bitcoins' value versus other currencies will always be very important. While bitcoins can fluctuate 15%+ on a daily basis no one will seriously use them for commerce unless: the bitcoin price carries a large premium over the dollar price (why use bitcoins then?), or the merchant employs dynamic pricing that changes every few hours or even minutes (and immediately heads over to MtGox to cash out).
The "real" economy:
You buy TV with a stolen credit card
Seller has bought it off the back of a truck, also claimed expenses on tax forms
TV manufacturer claimed double on insurance report and used child labor paid with (unnamed Asian currency)
and so on...
You buy TV with a stolen credit card
Seller has bought it off the back of a truck, also claimed expenses on tax forms
TV manufacturer claimed double on insurance report and used child labor paid with (unnamed Asian currency)
and so on...
Now it would be possible to get cute and say the employees don't have any income as they get paid in bitcoins instead of dollars, but try explaining that to a judge when the employee is taken to court for tax evasion (the representing lawyer will demand dollars instead of bitcoins too).
Stock options aren't taxed, right? I heard Microsoft had a tax evasion scheme with stock options that was perfectly legal. You could pay the employees minimum wage plus a bonus in bitcoins.
BTC value to fiat curency can be irrelevant, once the whole chains can operate in it.
Meaning:
You buy TV with BTC
Seller has bought it with BTC, also paid shipping with with BTC
TV manufacturer has bought coponents and labor with BTC
and so on
Meaning:
You buy TV with BTC
Seller has bought it with BTC, also paid shipping with with BTC
TV manufacturer has bought coponents and labor with BTC
and so on
That's an easy one to answer: it will never happen because it can't happen. If the employees at the retailer and manufacturer get paid in bitcoins, how do they pay income tax? How is sales tax paid on the TV? Governments will never accept bitcoins as payment just like gold, silver, diamonds etc are not usable as tax payments today.
Now it would be possible to get cute and say the employees don't have any income as they get paid in bitcoins instead of dollars, but try explaining that to a judge when the employee is taken to court for tax evasion (the representing lawyer will demand dollars instead of bitcoins too).
BTC value to fiat curency can be irrelevant, once the whole chains can operate in it.
Meaning:
You buy TV with BTC
Seller has bought it with BTC, also paid shipping with with BTC
TV manufacturer has bought coponents and labor with BTC
and so on
Currently BTC can't work as there isn't stability, which wouldn't matter if it wasn't traded for fiat-currency by parties. Pretty much chiken and egg issue. Not going to be solved soon I belive, certain products can be handled this way I'm sure, but these are likely mainly services and then we must forget the equivalency to fiat-currencies...
Meaning:
You buy TV with BTC
Seller has bought it with BTC, also paid shipping with with BTC
TV manufacturer has bought coponents and labor with BTC
and so on
Currently BTC can't work as there isn't stability, which wouldn't matter if it wasn't traded for fiat-currency by parties. Pretty much chiken and egg issue. Not going to be solved soon I belive, certain products can be handled this way I'm sure, but these are likely mainly services and then we must forget the equivalency to fiat-currencies...
I dont ever see bitcoin being stable until all 21 million are out there, then it should have a value and stay around that value if it is still proven useful. Until then, the speculation, day trading, panicing, no businesses taking bitcoin, is going to just keep the price jumping low, lower, lowest, maybe back up and down for a while.
Currently all BTC are worth about $50 million. If someone with $50 million were to come into the market today the price would double.
You wanna check that math there, sir?
As scarcity increases, so too does price.
Nevertheless, yes, Bitcoin is volatile.
Even still, someone buying up bitcoins is not going to change volitility. It's a matter of the number of bitcoins for sale versus the total number of bitcoins available. Increase the denominator and you will see much less propensity for wiggle.
Time and time alone will make bitcoin more stable.
-Jix
Bitcoin has to be widespread enough to stabilize.
You cannot have a stable price when the value of all of the BTC is so low.
Currently all BTC are worth about $50 million. If someone with $50 million were to come into the market today the price would double.
The same cannot be said about the Euro. That is why it is considered stable.
There are currently 855 trillion Euro worth $1.2 quadrillion. Nobody will be coming in with $1.2 quadrillion and send the Euro through the roof.
Each BTC would need to be worth $166,000 for the price to be as stable against the dollar as the Euro.
You cannot have a stable price when the value of all of the BTC is so low.
Currently all BTC are worth about $50 million. If someone with $50 million were to come into the market today the price would double.
The same cannot be said about the Euro. That is why it is considered stable.
There are currently 855 trillion Euro worth $1.2 quadrillion. Nobody will be coming in with $1.2 quadrillion and send the Euro through the roof.
Each BTC would need to be worth $166,000 for the price to be as stable against the dollar as the Euro.
I usually dont bother posting anymore as its clear that the zealotry will remain no matter the warnings. For what its worth, here is my prediction. Bitcoin's will fall to whatever value is deemed useful enough for Bitcoin to continue to serve as an intermediary for (2) transactions requiring some level of anonymity and (2) monetary transfer over channels where transaction fees would be prohibitive.
Bitcoin will NEVER be held for its own sake - despite all the proclamations otherwise, the market bears the truth - and as such, the "value" as long as it is above zero, is meaningless. Due to psychological reasons, the price will probably come to rest at a figure higher than $0.01 - perhaps $1 - but that's it. And that's all that it needs to be. There is no other utility provided by Bitcoins that warrant holding it for long periods of time, especially given the ease of its theft or inadvertent loss.
For those new to this "scene", carefully read posts by Synaptic. He is the only one telling the truth around here.
Bitcoin will NEVER be held for its own sake - despite all the proclamations otherwise, the market bears the truth - and as such, the "value" as long as it is above zero, is meaningless. Due to psychological reasons, the price will probably come to rest at a figure higher than $0.01 - perhaps $1 - but that's it. And that's all that it needs to be. There is no other utility provided by Bitcoins that warrant holding it for long periods of time, especially given the ease of its theft or inadvertent loss.
For those new to this "scene", carefully read posts by Synaptic. He is the only one telling the truth around here.
If the xchange-rate drops to, say, 1 USD, a lot of GPU miners will stop mining, difficulty will drop, FPGA-mining might even become profitable (still unlikely, though).
That's not how it works. If it becomes more profitable for FPGA miners again, it becomes more profitable for GPU miners too. Falling prices and constant difficulty is not good for anyone, it's just less bad for those with lower variable costs. On the other hand the fixed costs are the same, so it takes even longer to pay for the hardware. 
Dropping prices are good for FPGA-miners
What? Why?
Because FPGA-mining is a lot more power-efficient.
My 100MHash/s FPGA uses 6.8W. my 800MHash/s GPU uses 375W
If the xchange-rate drops to, say, 1 USD, a lot of GPU miners will stop mining, difficulty will drop, FPGA-mining might even become profitable (still unlikely, though).
BTC is rock-steady. That friggin USD fluctuates like hell lately, though.
You sir, made my day.
BTC is rock-steady. That friggin USD fluctuates like hell lately, though.
BTC Value is irrelevant, the only thing that needs to stimulate growth of BTC is some sort of market stabilization. Dropping BTC prices are a bad thing for miners, simply due to the hardware, electricity, and of course the current difficulty.
Dropping prices are good for FPGA-miners. Not all miners are the same. Some also don't care about current BTC value. Rigs payed off, no selling at such low prices.
Ive been saying this for months and non one wants to listen, its all about how cool bitcoin is, or thats not what bitcoin needs. YES BITCOIN NEEDS TO STABILIZE FOR IT TO HAVE ANY FREAKING FUTURE AT ALL PERIOD.
Good for you. I've been saying for ages now these intermittent periods of rain need to go away if we're ever going to be able to have great outdoor parties whenever we want. No-one wants to listen, though.
If you believe in bitcoin, you have no choice but to hold on to them at this point unless you bought them for 2 bux a coin. Anyone who got in at the 10 dollar mark, might as well sit and wait it out. Never play with a free market with more money then your willing to lose. I put 1000 bux into MTGOX and it is a 1000 bux I am willing to lose. Now with that 1000, I have bought and sold many bitcoins on ebay, forums, paypal, my website etc, but have lost money overall. Im down to about 800 bux worth of bitcoins now. So I am holding, selling, trading still until they die. I just sold 5 to an economics major for 55 bux for his senior thesis. Last week I sold 10 bitcoins total at .5 bitcoins each auction around 6.50 a bitcoin, so avg 13 dollars a bitcoin. Now I cant sell them on ebay at all becauses the price is way to low. Now its sit and hope it gets back up to 10, that is a nice round stable number.
i'm currently holding. i'm taking a huge loss if BTC dont go back up to at least 10$/btc
I held for $14 all August. It did not go back up.
Ive been saying this for months and non one wants to listen, its all about how cool bitcoin is, or thats not what bitcoin needs. YES BITCOIN NEEDS TO STABILIZE FOR IT TO HAVE ANY FREAKING FUTURE AT ALL PERIOD. Its pretty simple, no one is going to sell goods and services for something that could be worth 50 cent next week. Until that changes then this is just a small trading, market, nerdy currency that has some features of a stock, and will be toyed with for a year or two until it fizzles out to nothingness.
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