Bull Run or Dead Cat Bouncing ? - page 5.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: franky1 on December 19, 2018, 04:00:23 PM

PRICE is not the underlying value
first 3 quarters of 2018 $5800 was a good measure.. then in october hashrate curved down. and then price curved down in november.

Clearly the price is not the underlying value. I know that. But we were discussing about price, so let's not introduce unneeded extras into the equation.

I won't deny your data, you are much better informed. But did the hash rate drop with 45%? I doubt it. But the price did.
So while the hash rate and new mining gear can affect the price, I think that it has to be something else too that cause/trigger this (of course, it can be simply huge speculation, which is hard to quantify and foresee).

Kakmakr

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My short-term prediction for the next Bull run, would be Q1 of 2019. I base this prediction on the expectation that the SEC might approve the first Bitcoin ETF and that it would inevitably push up the demand for bitcoins. We are currently seeing a lot of financial institutions preparing for something big and I think they too anticipate a possible approval of the first Bitcoin ETF.

If I am wrong and this will not happen, then we might see a price between $2000 to $3000 for a longer period. Roll Eyes

Some profits can be made, by buying some cheap bitcoins now, before the announcement is made. Tongue

Magkirap

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Quote from: ngm22585 on December 19, 2018, 01:32:38 PM

Bull run, in my opinion.

We always predict that there will be a bull run and bull run but still nothing happen. Many people and bounty hunters are keep on saying bull run but if you study the chart on market it would not happen. I do not know if the if the chart show bull or dead cat bouncing.

ShowOff

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even both of bull run or dead cat bouncing,i will still hold my coins and speculate more. It is better than i jump and take a risk to loss because i not see good news for bitcoin and that is my personal decision.

Naughty Princess

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Quote from: jawakoak on December 19, 2018, 01:44:17 PM

bullrun or not, who bought some coin last week make a lot of profit right now, waves and doge its look like have bullrun first Grin

Yes. When you bought last week, good for you because you got profit in small increase for others. Never doubt a coin when it drops because there is an opportunity that you do not need long term for profit though even you make investment for long, it is good time to start. Bitcoin will bull run again in time.

arielbit

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Quote from: franky1 on December 19, 2018, 04:00:23 PM

Quote from: NeuroticFish on December 19, 2018, 01:16:39 PM

Quote from: franky1 on December 19, 2018, 01:02:49 PM

the final difficulty adjustment of 2018 just happened. and so now we are in the realm of mining pools knowing the next difficulty jump WILL be affected by the delivery of next gen asics getting delivered in a week to thousands of people.
pushing up hashrate. pushing up costs. and therefore making many prefer to buy coin as a cheaper option, sparking a price rise

Interesting. However, many have claimed that 6000$ was the bottom because it was close to the mining costs. (I didn't agree back then, I claimed the mining costs are not so well known.)
We are still under 4000$, so either miners are mining at a loss and still don't care, either the mining cost was close to 3000$-3500$.
Only in this case your theory could be correct, although historically (eg when Bitcoin has fallen under 250$ in 2015 and stayed low for almost a year) the price has its periods when it was clearly under the mining costs.

PRICE is not the underlying value
first 3 quarters of 2018 $5800 was a good measure.. then in october hashrate curved down. and then price curved down in november.

in 2015
the hashrate was between 250peta-400petahash during the stagnant period which doing math of asics at the time... it was break even/profitable there was a bit in august 2015 which touched on the break-even testing the bottomline.. then by autumn the hashrate and the market price moved up

maybe add to that the element of electric cost.. like mining has become only profitable in a very small parts of the world and miners without a source of cheap electricity had capitulated, the expensive will have to go first then the average and then when some the cheapest have capitulated-> buy some, can't go wrong long term Wink

Inosend

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Really this is hilarious though, but the truth must be told and of course the truth is always bitter, we are into dead cat Bouncing ERA this isn't bull run

HidenJonathan

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;Dhaha a funny picture

tunapa

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No one call can really say but I think looking at the situation of things ,it's not a dead cat trap. After a while we will really know what's going. But for now, this is just a simple price movement as big payer are coming and going straight high.

CryptoGosu

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I think that we are waiting for price stabilization at around 4000. The market needs to calm down. I think that now traders need to be very careful. The price can make a strong move to one side.

jcpone

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It's neither of the two. The increase that is happening right now is just a nice recovery for the month. It hasn't proven anything as of now, simply a recovery. Though, bitcoin holders are thinking really good about this. For me, I'm hoping that this is a sign of the bull run. Though, a lot of recovery is needed before bull run. The one-year drought is tremendous. Very long recovery is required.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Zin-Zang on December 19, 2018, 12:22:40 PM

Opinions on Recent Market Upswing

perhaps neither! i definitely don't expect an immediate bull run---that's totally out of the question. but i always figured the $3k level might be the bottom. it looks possible now.

however, it'll take time for the market to confirm that. if we look back to the 2014-15 bear market, it took almost a year to decide. in august 2015, the price almost crashed again. the market immediately bucked that selloff attempt and we confirmed a new bull market a few months later, but at that time it could have gone either way.

i'm just trying to ride the waves. whether the bottom is in or not, we should be trending upwards for a couple weeks. good enough for me!

franky1

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on December 19, 2018, 01:16:39 PM

Quote from: franky1 on December 19, 2018, 01:02:49 PM

the final difficulty adjustment of 2018 just happened. and so now we are in the realm of mining pools knowing the next difficulty jump WILL be affected by the delivery of next gen asics getting delivered in a week to thousands of people.
pushing up hashrate. pushing up costs. and therefore making many prefer to buy coin as a cheaper option, sparking a price rise

Interesting. However, many have claimed that 6000$ was the bottom because it was close to the mining costs. (I didn't agree back then, I claimed the mining costs are not so well known.)
We are still under 4000$, so either miners are mining at a loss and still don't care, either the mining cost was close to 3000$-3500$.
Only in this case your theory could be correct, although historically (eg when Bitcoin has fallen under 250$ in 2015 and stayed low for almost a year) the price has its periods when it was clearly under the mining costs.

PRICE is not the underlying value
first 3 quarters of 2018 $5800 was a good measure.. then in october hashrate curved down. and then price curved down in november.

in 2015
the hashrate was between 250peta-400petahash during the stagnant period which doing math of asics at the time... it was break even/profitable there was a bit in august 2015 which touched on the break-even testing the bottomline.. then by autumn the hashrate and the market price moved up

Asian_Dynasty

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Activity: 186

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Quote from: Zin-Zang on December 19, 2018, 12:22:40 PM

Opinions on Recent Market Upswing

Bull Run

OR

Dead Cat Bouncing

I think Dead Cat Bouncing Grin

suzanne5223

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Quote from: avikz on December 19, 2018, 01:40:34 PM

It is entirely based on the timeline you are considering to determine whether it is a bull run or dead cat bounce. Simple enough!

If you are comparing with the late 2017 - dead cat bouncing!

If you are an early starter - Bull run, most certainly!

Hope this helps!

Yes, the time line can be use to know what the side which the crypto market drift to but I want you to know that the graph representation is also a guessing type of prediction because every thing is rely on the mining status. However, I presume we're yet to reach the bull run market.

Crypto_Samuel

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I will be sure it's a bullrun when BTC breaks resistance around the $4K mark, that can open the door for a move towards $4,5K.

ramesh770

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Quote from: franky1 on December 19, 2018, 01:02:49 PM

bull run=
2016 $300^
2017 $900^
2018 $3200^

daily/weekly volatility=
cubs(small bears) v
calves(small bulls)^

personally i use the mining cost/market dynamic numbers to help find the bottomline support which has been a good guide for years of knowing the bottom.

the final difficulty adjustment of 2018 just happened. and so now we are in the realm of mining pools knowing the next difficulty jump WILL be affected by the delivery of next gen asics getting delivered in a week to thousands of people.
pushing up hashrate. pushing up costs. and therefore making many prefer to buy coin as a cheaper option, sparking a price rise

So as per your view right now it is just preparing the next bull run, but it will take some more time to jump ATH, but now if i am not wrong $3100 wont break. So it is good time to start accumulating bitcoins

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Reading around the web it seems to be bouncing, it seems a huge pump with low trust, but hey we had people on 2017 betting on bitcoin at 100k by the end of 2018 Roll Eyes

.

bhabygrim

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It is really hard to say but it could be a Dead cat bounce,
But we are all hoping for a bull run,
We still have to monitor it to know if it is a bull run or a dead cat bounce.

ranman09

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Merit: 112

Quote from: avikz on December 19, 2018, 01:40:34 PM

If you are comparing with the late 2017 - dead cat bouncing!

If you are an early starter - Bull run, most certainly!

haha! you're right, It depends on how you look at the charts. Better consider the history next time starters. History repeats itself.

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