Topic: Butterfly Labs Pre-Sales Not Covered by Paypal? (Read 4932 times)

A large number of those aren't ASIC orders, though.

It measures the delta between the lowest order number in the list and the highest order number.

How are you coming up with the inferred total orders of 7029?

Only 85 TH? Link?

Whack math is whack. I came up with a worst case estimate (as if all the confirmed pre-orders were sc rigs) putting difficulty at 40x --- on bfl's site Josh has stated that pre-orders are ~85 terahash now.
That will put BFL's contribution at 5x difficulty. It's nothing to worry about... once it hits 10x gpu's will be gone, and fpga will just barely be profitable.

Yeah... I hear ya loud and clear there.

decisions decisions

This is why one should be very careful about ASIC purchases at this point. If the difficulty does go all hockey stick quickly then all ROI calculations are out the window.

The two variables that would have to change for continued profitability would be increases in BTC price relative to fiat or decreases in the cost of ASIC hardware.

Those ASIC vendors that think they can just keep current pricing will find their orders markedly decreasing over time without adjustment.

What is neglected is the time it takes to fill all the orders. May take 2 years to add 450TH. So if you have the last order, chances are it's not gonna do a ROI.

So... 475 Terahash increase?! Damn man, when you look at it like that it makes buying just one SC single almost pointless. Hell the Jalapeno would be like what a CPU does today. It seems unless you have 10's of thousands of dollars to put into this that mining isnt even worth it. And even then, how will the people that spent that much even be able to get a return on their money. I wanted to buy a SC single, and had plans to at the end of October, but seeing it laid out like this almost makes it seem pointless. The hash rate currently is around 21 terahash. So if we divide this 475 terahash estimate by 21(today) we get around 22. The network will increase 22x in speed judging by your those speculated numbers. So if I take what 40 g/hash yeilds right now and divide by 22, I can get a good idea what a SC single will do. So lets see. 40g/has today gets you 14 bitcoins a day. Divide by 22, and we have .63 a day.

Is my math rigth here, or am I just completely wrong? Im still very much new to all of this, so it wouldnt suprise me if I am looking at this completely wrong here. But .63 bitcoins a day for a device that costs 1300 bucks seems pretty dangerous. Not to mention the blocks are sliced in half. Does that mean .3 a day from an SC single?!!

Someone who has more knowledge than me chime in here. Am I right with this analysis? I hope not... =/

-Ryan

I suppose the value in the coin could go up a lot. Following other flow charts it seems to follow suit with difficulty increases. Maybe better off just buying the coins, and hoping it follows suit with its past history.
 

Just pay using a Credit Card through paypal....call the CC company and they will call paypal for you. It doesn't matter what Paypal's terms are.

PayPal permits pre-sales on a limited basis, only if the seller guarantees delivery within 20 days from the date of purchase and clearly identifies the item as a pre-sale. PayPal may apply additional conditions, such as proof of the seller's ability to successfully deliver the product: supplier information, purchase invoices, postal information or proof of delivery.

yes.. if you read this correctly i would not be worried, so many people paid via paypal and if this pre order never
meets that bank account will even get frozen.

Paypal protects buyers for up to 45 days period.  After that, you are SoL, and since you won't see delivery for 3-6 months, you're not going to get any protection from PayPal.  You're only possibility of protection is to use your Credit Card as your payment and hope that your CC company is willing to let you dispute the charges on a 3-6 month old charge.

I did some crunching on those numbers in that thread, to extrapolate and predict the revenue received based on the available data, and arrived at this:


That does not adjust for orders that may be unpaid, refunded, duplicate, or otherwise invalid.  If you were to discount 20% of the orders, that would be about $7.88m received.

If you extrapolate a bit further (again not accounting for invalid orders) you can calculate:


Product                    Qty  Hashrate (GHps)
Inferred Jalapenos:        3213 11246
Inferred Singles:          3491 139653
Inferred Mini Rigs:        324  324415
Totals:                    7029 475314

if you take the numbers from https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wait-list-bfl-sc-pre-order-information-monarch-orders-too-89685 as a sample, you find that there are actually more single SC units being sold than jallys (also straight order numbers doesn't take into account multiple units per order). hash rate will be even higher...

of course there are lots of unfilled orders from 0-9000, so they don't actually have 9000 real orders..lots of failed orders are part of that number. I think BFL_engineer said they had something like 5k units on order or something like that last week.

I would multiply it by 3.5GH. If that order number really would mean 9000+ preordered asics, then thats at the very least 31TH from BFL alone. Factor in singles and minirigs and the fact many customers would have ordered multple devices per order and it might be closer to 100TH.  From BFL alone.. 

Order #9030 eh?

Assuming those are all for jalapeño pre-orders... multiply that by $149 and you come up with $1,345,470. Dayum. w/ shipping it's somewhere around $1.4 million. Not sure what portion of that is through paypal but I'm sure they've noticed it's happening.

I'm order #7661...

Someone posted that picture in a thread on here just to watch it explode and said so in the thread lol. Think it was in the BFL townhall post or the Sonny v. thread

We're pre-ordering 256-bit SHA hashing machines. Physical & real products - who said anything about bitcoins?

I can justify 150 bucks. As much as I want an SC, I cant see myself shelling out that kind of money until I at least see this Jalapeno. Im still very skeptical on its arrival. Since Im currently order number 9030, even if I did order Im looking at months and months before I would get it. Ill just wait it out, and see if this Jalapeno shows up or not. Once people are showing off their pictures of the SC, I'll go ahead and order.

Its seem so man hahaha.