Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 411. (Read 108284 times)

Every time will appear to be the perfect time for every accumulator, as they don't have to always look at Bitcoin bearish times before they can accumulate; rather, they set out an already working strategy that they can use and that will appear safe in every given market situation. They always have a set amount of capital to purchase more and add to their holdings, as what's most important is the amount they want to hold before a certain period of time and not the price they want to buy it at before that time reaches.
 
Just like you said, long-time holders don't have anything to worry about when it comes to price, as the price won't have any effect on time. Even if their portfolio happens to drop a little in total worth, it does not change the fact that they foresaw beyond the recent market price, but they are focused on what will come afterwards.

@ginsan exactly, you are absolutely right. When someone hits the buy button, that's the right time and also. But a person has become an investor, but I want to add something to that also, when the person hits the buy button and it shows SUCCESSFUL that's the right time and nothing can stop the person from profiting unless his own self. Now I can imagine myself how I was feeling when I didn't hit the buy button then. It was like OH WHEN IS THE RIGHT TIME, and it was troubling me as of them, but now I am a free-minded person because I don't always go to my wallet to check prices. Yes, it is not a good start for someone who doesn't have a lot of money in his account to start an investment, because if the person runs out of cash and has no way to get money, the person might end up selling his coins.
On second thoughts, people who don't invest with bigger capital should hold for long so they can profit bigger.

In general everyone says as you said where the bearish moment is the right time to buy Bitcoin. But the right time to buy Bitcoin is when you hit the buy button and clear the worries in your mind. That's why purchasing moments don't have to be done aggressively if we don't have a lot of money because you can adjust each purchase level gradually by having Usdt reserves in your portfolio to accumulate Bitcoin in every downturn that occurs. Some big investors maybe they do every quarter so they won't be racing on short-term price declines because they implement long-term investments like some big investors do. But for those of us with small capital, maybe we do it every week with a small amount because we have to balance every turnover of money for living needs and also investing in Bitcoin.

Personally, I don't have any problem with the idea of ongoingly looking at the BTC price and the value of your overall BTC holdings as compared to fiat, and even part of the sentiment of this thread involves considering the extent to which there might be some value in terms of trying to time dips versus just buying BTC regularly without much if any reference to the price, and I have difficulties considering that both might not be done and/or accomplished without necessarily devolving into trading practices and/or panicking based on BTC price moves.

I recall that my first year and a half or so and maybe more I would manually make my BTC buys, and once I started to use automatic buys that were based on hitting the buy price (also known as limited buy orders), then that became easier to accomplish both manual buys and automatic buys that were based on certain price points... and maybe even less often having to use BTC price alarms in order to trigger me to make sure that I manually buy when the BTC price goes to a certain threshold of my interest.

In 2015, there were even several times in which I looked at my BTC holdings, and I would see that my average cost per BTC would have been something like $580; however, if the BTC price was then in the mid $200s or even lower, I would consider that whatever amount of bitcoin that I bought would be less than half the price of the average cost of my overall BTC holdings, and I would consider that each purchase that I made would bring down my average cost per BTC.. and it took almost the whole of 2015 to bring my average cost per BTC down from $580 and down to around $500 per BTC.. and so then by the end of October / beginning of November 2015, when the BTC price went shooting up from $300-ish to $500-ish, I almost started to panic (well I did end up panic buying at around $500 - so embarrassing) because the BTC price was going to end up being higher than my average cost per BTC, so there was a kind of good feeling that came from buying BTC and bringing down my average cost per BTC with each BTC purchase.

Every investor's own thinking creates their own investment strategy. Every investor should have a reserve fund to make proper investments. But before deciding to invest it is important to have a proper plan to hold for the long term. The current Bitcoin market is bearish so now is definitely a good time to invest if the right plan is presented. This opportunity should not be missed to buy the most that the Bitcoin market has to offer for long-term holders.

If you treat Bitcoin like a treasure worth holding, your mindset will significantly change. First, you will be more focused on accumulating more of it rather than bothering about the price. Indeed, it is very emotionally draining to be worried about Bitcoin price. From personal experience, one tend to look more on the price of Bitcoin when one is so curious about quick profits and not long term HODL. On the other hand, having a futuristic mindset with Bitcoin will eliminate this burden of looking at price always because the focus will be on how to accumulate certain quantity of Bitcoin by a certain year. This is where DCA comes in and am happy a lot of people are already applying same thereby eliminating some of the psychological burden that comes with buying Bitcoin without a well-thought out plan.


The best we can do at best is to expect as it is up to the market to decide. As a believer in Bitcoin, one must have some level of faith that someday, the price will go up even though we done know when and how. Another thing is also to look at history data and correlate same with previous events and the outcome in the price. This is where the halving comes in. So, I agree with you that the halving next year necessitate optimistic anticipation of rise in price.

Strange way of saying it.... crypto market?  hm?  is there such a thing?  why describe such a thing in order to attempt to figure out where bitcoin's prices might be established?


You might be right that investors become nervous by volatility, especially if they do not know how to prepare themselves (or their portfolios) for such volatility.. that in bitcoin is about as close to inevitable as anything might be in bitcoin..

In other words, one of the things most guaranteed in bitcoin is likely that it is going to continue to be volatile.

so if we know that bitcoin is going to be volatile, then it likely is a good thing to plan and prepare for such inevitable volatility.

I would agree with any assertion that points out that many times investors expect bitcoin to be less volatile than it ends up being, or they become disappointed that the volatility is in the direction that they had not anticipated, but that largely goes to their own lack of sufficient planning and/or preparing.

In regards, to your seemingly placing traders and investors in the same category in terms of their expectations, I doubt that is very accurate, since traders tend to love volatility and should be able to make money in either direction, yet frequently traders will find themselves on the wrong side of volatility because an overwhelming majority are likely not sufficiently preparing themselves or their portfolios in a way that they are able to make money no matter what.  Sure there are a small number of traders who are able to make money no matter what, but sometimes even the generally BIG winners get their trades wrong.

So traders are not equal in their abilities, and there likely are times in which traders are more aggressive or less aggressive in their own approaches that might even include their choices to not attempt to trade certain kinds of patterns and/or certain places in which they might have less confidence in placing a trade.. even though sometimes their own choices to "sit out the market" may well end up causing them to "fuck themselves" out of the times in which BTC prices might end up going up appreciably, and they "believe" that they are sitting out the market when the fact of the matter is that they are in dollars instead of bitcoin and failing/refusing to be in bitcoin during times in which they should be in bitcoin, which likely is most times, since nobody knows when the BTC price is going to go on an exponential UPpity run that causes it to be difficult to figure out when to get in, if you are not already in.  In the past, there are many times in which we have witnessed these kinds of unexpected UPpity bitcoin price performances.


But what is the trend that you believe bitcoin to be in?  Do you know?  


There are a lot of ways to trade, but so what?  We are not even talking about trading in this thread... and diversity in what sense?  Are you referring to shitcoins or trading some other things besides bitcoin?  or are you talking about various kinds of bitcoin trading (financialization) products?  Yeah, there are a lot of things that affect the BTC prices, and some of those might have to do with the various ways in which BTC is traded and also the various ways in which some products are not backed by the BTC that they claim to be trading.


That's not true.

Most traders do not make money, even though they might have periods in which they make money.  There are also a lot of ideas out there that trading is the way to make money when you do not have very much money, but that is not very likely to be true either.. at least not for the vast majority of traders.

Part of the reason that this thread has been so popular is that we are tending to talk about various kinds of ways to make money with bitcoin (and especially in the long run) by engaging in strategies that are against trading and more aligned towards BTC accumulation, even though surely, we have this thread through our discussion (including the topic of the thread) that involves discussing considerations regarding the extent to which there might be some value in attempting to figure out BTC price dips in order to take advantage of those dips to potentially be able to get more BTC than if you had just bought BTC regularly without trying to figure out the dips.


That is not a bad point, Macoach. 

I have found that there are frequently people who do not really understand bitcoin very well, and they value their profits in dollars, so they figure that any time that they cash out at a positive price, then they had done a good trade, yet many times these same people end up leaving a lot of potential profits on the table because they end up cashing out of way too many bitcoin and way too soon.. so even if they value their profits in dollars, they end up miscalculating either the UPside potentials of bitcoin, or they just might not even know enough about bitcoin in order to figure out some kind of a level of bitcoin that they might be willing to continue to hold, even if the BTC price might end up going down rather than up.

I understand your point but it is more than that. BTC has generally been pretty stable over the past few months, compared to lifetime volatility and to anyone who gets scared because of the fluctuating price of btc sholud be ready to get disappointed. What i have come to realize is that you haven't lost anything until you cash out

Every decision must have been thought through quite carefully, especially for those who make it in the long term. Every strategy used certainly has meaning for them and I will not question their decision. Everyone is ready with all the risks because the fluctuating price of btc will make someone have to think about everything they are ready to face.

On principle of accumulating Bitcoin I still rely on the DCA strategy because it makes it easier for me to find cheap price points along the way. As far as I have gone, purchasing through DCA is more promising than for those who do it instantly.

I know the supply of BTC is constant and there will be no more but the Market continues to run and I also understand The recent decline was triggered by several interrelated factors and it is common that value fluctuations are sometimes wild in the market. Yes. once again digital coins in this case, especially BTC, are unique and different, but normally the way a market works like this is if the demand for buying Bitcoin in the Crypto Market increases beyond the supply of sellers, then the price of bitcoin will rise and on the other hand, when there are more Bitcoin sellers than buyers, then the price of bitcoin will drop to a price point where the number of sellers and buyers balance is very useful, of course.

I think you also know that currently many investors are showing caution because they realize that excessive price drama regarding bitcoin and this volatility is a big worry among aspiring traders to put it mildly. But, one thing for me right now trends can always change or reverse, but the invention of Bitcoin has changed the world today and the beauty of trading lies in its diversity, and through the study of price action, traders should be able to profit from the same make them financially independent and stable and "Everybody Knows"

Now try to see through another parable by taking an example of one model of goods in the market, both traditional markets and modern markets with many kinds of goods models. You can see the price of an item for which there is no demand or demand but very little, I'm sure you will find a discounted price on the item so that the item can sell well in the market.

As for Bitcoin, actually this kind of thing can also happen because, as has been seen, a push from demand can indeed have an effect on increasing prices and that will not happen by itself. But because this is Bitcoin which is very different from other things, you also need to look at the other side, such as the overall Bitcoin supply level and the level of Bitcoin circulation that already exists in the market which can also have an influence on the price.

Your cautious yet optimistic stance regarding possibility of significant increase in Bitcoin price is quite understandable. As an informed and experienced Bitcoin investor you are well aware of  that predicting future price of Bitcoin is very challenging task. Various factors, such as regulatory developments, general state of global economy and prevailing monetary policies, can impact all risky assets including Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, we can reasonably anticipate that there are favourable odds for significant price appreciation in 2024, which marks the year of Bitcoin's halving event.

Why is there any need to ask?  It is always the case that the BTC price could go up or it could go dow, but right now, it is more than $1,500 below the 200-week moving average which seems to mean that it is a pretty good price, relatively speaking.  What else would you need to know?


Does anyone know?


Sure.  Fundamentals and news.. momentum and manipulations.

How about if some players have goals to push the BTC price down as long as they can and as far as they can, and they try to employ a variety of tools to achieve their goals.  They may or may not be successful in their efforts.

You still cannot really determine whether from here the BTC price is going to go lower or higher... so what are you going to do?

Trying to answer questions of "why" seem somewhat futile since there are all of those things going on at the same time, but still we cannot tell at which points (if any) there might be some explosive BTC price moves upwards because they down manipulation has gone as far as it is able to go.


What are you doing red4slash?  Maybe you want to describe it? 

You don't have to give exact numbers, but you could give us some kind of an idea...   

Probably you have already said it, but you did not say it in this particular response in which you just said that you were going to continue to employ your one strategy.. which may well include several parts, but you did not say what they were. 

How long have you been doing the thing that you are doing?  Did you start out that way? 

Did you change your strategy?  why? 

Are you going to admit that we already know that BTC accumulators might employ a certain kind of strategy that might last a short period of time or maybe it lasts 1-5 years, and then where they are at might change what they need to do, so even though you are accepting that strategies are best tailored to the person, you have only vaguely mentioned in a conclusory way that the strategy that you are currently following is good for you.


It is a bit difficult to figure out red4slash because if s/he has been into bitcoin since his/her forum registration date in mid-2016, then if s/he would have followed a DCA strategy for that whole time, then maybe that could continue to work today, perhaps?  I am not necessarily against picking a good and suitable system, but sometimes even our situations change after several years.. something like 7 years could cause some justification for other strategies, but at the same time, there could be reasons to stick with the same thing, too... maybe just change the amounts rather than changing the strategies.

We might be able to see that even a very straight-forward DCA buying of $10 per week since June 2016, would have gotten someone to about 1 BTC by now after investing right around $3,800, but of course, if someone was able to buy $10 per week in 2016, at some point later down the road, s/he might increase his/her DCA budget and maybe after March 2020 decide to go up to $100 per week... so the person can change, but also the circumstances could change that might justify changes in the strategy even if NOT switching or adding strategies.


I doubt that I have ever said that the BTC price is for sure going up or even giving too many shits about when it happens, if it happens.

However, I have continued to say that it seems that ongoingly there are pretty decent chances that the BTC price will go up and continue to go up, so financially you are better off to have bitcoin rather than not having bitcoin, but you can choose for yourself if to have bitcoin and if so, how much to have, and if you choose to have bitcoin, then you have to figure out a way to get it, and if you are hoping to have greater advantages in terms of having had built your bitcoin holdings, then maybe you would like to figure out various strategies to be as aggressive as you can in terms of bitcoin accumulation, but not so aggressive that you end up overdoing it and having to sell some bitcoin (or suffer in other ways) merely because you overly did your bitcoin buying.

The method and understanding of investing in BTC using the DCA model is very clear and helpful, both from your explanation and that of other friends here. well, maybe this is basic for me but, one thing I think about is whether BTC will rise by itself without any demand and whether the predicted price prediction will come by itself... Another song, How do we know if the hunger will disappear if we haven't eaten.

Yea I’m liking it so far. I think after reading the whole thing, I now have a pretty good understanding of everything you said. I’m taking it slow and taking notes to make sure everything I learn sticks to my head. I am convinced it will be smart enough to figure out a system that works with the will power to stick to it. As for now am pretty sure DCA works for me so ill just stick with that

Indeed, choosing to focus on single strategy can have its advantages , specially when you become highly proficient in that particular approach, potentially increasing your chances of success. On the other hand, working with multiple strategies can mitigate the risk against market volatility.

In summary, the key is to find out what works best for you and stick to it, while continuously learning and adapting as needed.

Yes, of course, each holder has their own strategy and it is part of one's skill level in doing so. We can never force the strategies we use to be used by others, and perhaps we can only recommend them.
Like me for example, I'm comfortable with what I'm doing, and I prefer to focus on one strategy only, because for me having many strategies might not be good for me because at some point we might be dilemma to use which strategy.
I don't mean to say that people who work with multiple strategies are not good, they are still good. But for me personally developing one strategy is better.

While I understand and respect your point, I think it is right for me to make some clarifications.  Trading is not bad and can be profitable for some that have mastered the skill.  But considering the topic of this thread which is to buy and hold, it becomes a little out of place to discuss short time trading here. Most traders are just after short term profits and they do not really hold Bitcoin.

I am happy you agreed with me that DCA that dominate the discussion here is mostly and better applied in accumulation and holding for long.

Actually in this case I don't suggest or consider that trading is also a mistake because those who do it have their own thoughts and their own strategies to collect bitcoins regardless of others doing DCA or trading I think it's their right but when talking about investment then one of the best strategies is DCA. and when we want to be a good investor for the long term trading is too difficult to do because as you said a profit for a few days/weeks or months can just become a loss in one day when trading is bad so traders do have bitcoins but they are not investors for me because they have their own role which is as traders.
Unlike the DCA which is indeed one of the very good bitcoin buying strategies for today because this is a way of collecting bitcoins without having to worry about the bitcoins that we collect experiencing losses if we don't sell that.

You should know what factors can influence the value of bitcoin, so you don't have to question it.
I can mantions several factors; real use cases, adoption in a place/country, politics, global economic conditions and so on. All of this news raises issues there that ultimately have an impact on market behavior, so it's not the news that makes the Bitcoin price fluctuate but is influenced by the fundamental issues that I have mentioned. However, the role of news here is very large.