Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 409. (Read 123343 times)

Actually I don't think this is the actual scenario in real life especially when It comes to trading, experience is I very vital however based on the topic about hodling, Hodling Bitcoin does not require and form of skill or experience except for the fact that one needs to understand his security properly to prevent losses due to hacks or scam.

Bitcoin still remains the OG of the crypto space so I see no reason why someone would prefer to invest in shit coins that can dip exponentially any time when Bitcoin is the better option except due to the fact that such person is poorly enlightened about Bitcoin investments.

If it's to invest in bitcoin why bother choosing another coin? Isn't bitcoin already a good choice means there is no need to choose another coin right?

Are you sure you have never learned other cryptos while your initial posts often discuss other cryptos? Forget it already.
Everyone is always different in learning bitcoin at the beginning if they really want to know the basics of bitcoin before starting to invest then he won't be that difficult because the way of understanding will be simple if you have a clear mindset towards bitcoin, at the beginning I was quite difficult but often time goes by while learning the basics of bitcoin now I understand a little about bitcoin and how to invest, remember that knowledge will increase if you continue to be in the forum environment.

Maybe what you say is quite successful, but for me success is when I am able to manage my finances well from cash flow to Bitcoin for investment. Until now I am still trying to increase my accumulation every time there is more money so that my portfolio continues to rise, but when I hear You're motivated, I'm happy to hear that, even though I'm here, I'm still trying to consistently hold Bitcoin for more than 5 years, I hope I can.

As a new investor it is not that easy to invest in Bitcoin first because you cannot choose which coin will be good for you to invest or which coin will be safe for your money at the beginning. 

While it is difficult for everyone to invest in Bitcoin in the beginning, it was easy for me because I didn't learn about crypto currency first but I learned about Bitcoin first. Ever since I first came to know about Bitcoin, I have had a distinct fascination with Bitcoin, and the thought of when I can invest in Bitcoin has always been on my mind. At that time I developed a strong desire to know something about Bitcoin and I tried to find out. Choosing Bitcoin for initial investment was not a difficult task for me as I tried to learn enough about Bitcoin.

It can be said that I was quite successful in my early investments. When I first invested in Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin went up a lot right after I invested, which made me profit early on. The fact that the market turned positive after I invested and my money increased a bit is what motivates me a lot. Since then I got the impression that I have held my investment for a short period of time so I have made a profit from my investment. That kind of thinking then has made me a patient enough person today because now I can hold my investments for a long time very easily.

The questions about the rise and fall nature of the decentralized digital currencies have raised a lot of eyebrows to interested people who want to venture into Bitcoin but do not have enough information at hand. Sometimes it is not just about searching online because you may not necessarily have the in depth or hands-on information you're looking for. So, therefore, it is key that we enlighten ourselves more about what it takes to patronize the digital currency and by extention invest in it.

DCA remains the best option for long-term growth investors who have meager resources at hand but are always ready to take advantage of the market trend. It is like an investment plan options that have been roled out to a potential investor who's knocking on the door for investment.

Don't know if this example helps but it's a case of whether he or she is an angel investor who's putting in their own funds with the expectations of making profits by taking advantage of the market, he can use the DCA approach OR if the investor is a venture capitalist who's investing more money into the coin, then the investor will want to wait for the Lump Sum to make profits.

In my opinion, don't sell all the holdings you have to made fiat. You have to pay attention to the market situation in the 2 years after the ATH recording in 2021 that we have experienced since then is a decline and decline so that the 2 years that have passed have been a beautiful time for accumulating Bitcoin. Well, with conditions like that, of course we once accumulate at a cheaper price level and perhaps the best option is of course to continue holding it. Although some of them took advantage during the increase, it is possible that they will have difficulty getting Bitcoin again at a cheaper price like the purchase they made.

The Spot ETF is a surprise and those who sell their holdings at current prices will certainly regret it if they can't get back to buying btc at $20k or at a cheap price. Every decision will definitely be considered wisely before they make a decision and the best decision is to keep holding it.

There must be a good strategy in this case even though the goal may be very good to do but when the method only makes ourselves difficult in the end this can hinder the pace of DCA done.
$100 per week will indeed provide greater benefits because what we invest is very large but on the other hand it goes back to the initial problem of whether we can do it consistently for a long period of time? If in the end you can do that and with the support of the benefits you have from the salary you receive every month to be able to invest $100 / week and be able to cover other needs for daily life, it is indeed very good but if we have a modest income and investing $100 / week is draining your cash I don't think it's worth it even though your desire to get 1 btc is very good but in the end when impulsive methods like this are done, this will destroy your desire to get 1 btc because of your difficulty in managing your finances because you are too pushing yourself for the goals you want to achieve.
Keep in mind this is an investment for the long term so when you force from the start with a big start then when you have problems in the purchase made because it is too burdensome then this is precisely what becomes a problem so that the investment that is carried out does not go well.

Ah dont worry what FIAT remains is only after what Bitcoin I have bought! I have been buying
Bitcoin regularly, Last price point when I bought was at $33250 but I'm holding off with a few
purchases until as I said we get a correction.


Thats a great way of putting it, someone who works their ass off to accumulate such a rare thing as
Bitcoin only to sell everything for FIAT in the hopes that they will be able to buy it all back at a cheaper
rate. Well the way things could go with these Spot ETF's there may not be buying any cheap coins!

Way too much of a gamble

I am not sure if we are saying similar things or not Asiska02.  Of course, I am recognizing and/or appreciating the difficulties that likely exist in the first several years of bitcoin investing and maybe even at least a whole cycle or more, but there could be some ways in which bitcoiners end up getting lucky in their entrance into bitcoin, but still the volatility can still remain something that causes psychological/financial pain, yet maybe continuing to buy on the way down and sell on the way up could establish some stability for some folks who might have had reached their accumulation goals, but for someone who is new, then just figuring out position size, whether just starting out with DCA or maybe combining DCA with lump sum buying, attempts at front loading and attempts at buying on the dip could help to alleviate some of the emotional tensions, but if there are too many emotional tensions, then that could largely be signs of being over invested and not really having a plan that is sufficiently suitable to the person's situation.

So, yeah, maybe I am contradicting myself to say that there might be almost no way to completely get rid of the tensions of a newbie, but position size likely does help to manage how much tensions might be felt in regards to volatility, and if there is quite a bit of mental and financial preparations for extreme volatility, then it becomes easier to deal with the extreme volatility if it ends up happening and even if it ends up happening to be more extreme than expected.


Yeah... but we are not talking about trading here... ... especially if we are referring to ways to accumulate BTC.. and how to figure out how to employ various ways to accumulate BTC, and surely these are more difficult times to justify ongoing accumulation of BTC when we see the BTC price going shooting up 40% or so in a couple of weeks, and so then guys waiting to buy the dip might not get dips that are sufficient enough to get them to buy.


Again, you are seeming to focus on selling BTC for profits, which is not what we are talking about in this thread, even though we might need to consider what to do if we reach our goals. whether that might be 1 BTC, 10 BTC, 21BTC, 50BTC or some other amount.. and so if we feel that we have enough or even more than enough, it hardly makes any sense to think about selling them for profits, even though there might be some selling of them in order to attempt to maintain the portfolio value in some kind of a way to protect from downside risk. 

Let's say that you have been in bitcoin for right around 6 years, and you have been buying between $150 and $250 of bitcoin per week, depending on your budget, and your goal had been to get to 70 BTC by this year or alternatively to get to 60 BTC by next year, and right now, you ONLY have 50 BTC, so you already realized that with your kind of budget and what you have been doing over the past years and you even got to know yourself pretty well, you already know that you cannot meet your goal to get to 70 BTC by this year, and probably you will not be able to meet your goal of 60 BTC by next year, but you know that you are real close to meeting your goals, and you might realize that 50 BTC is enough for the coming years, but you are not quite sure.  You may well be using the 200-week moving average to measure the value of your BTC, so you know that when the BTC price is significantly higher than the 200-week moving average you are able to sell some BTC for higher than the amount than you value them at, but you still might question the extent to which selling more BTC helps you out to reach your accumulation goals.. because you are close to reaching it, but still not quite there.  If we project a few years into the future, 50 BTC or maybe even a few more BTC such as 51-55 BTC may well be enough for those further out timeframes, so sometimes guys might need to be flexible in terms of their timelines, but they still might not feel that they have reached a point of selling BTC on the way up if they have not quite gotten to their goal and maybe there would be a preference to exceed the goal rather than merely meet the goal before selling as a kind of maintenance practice would become part of the ways of managing your bitcoin stash.   


You keep repeating this selling when you get to your target, and I doubt that longer term bitcoin HODLers are thinking about bitcoin in terms of selling the whole thing, even though selling some BTC might become a part of any HODLers maintenance strategy once s/he has reached and/or exceeded his/her target amounts.  If you sell, then where are you going to put the value?  Are you selling to buy back or selling in order to buy some other asset class? or to consume?  It does not make any sense to sell just to consume.. but there could be ways to sell a certain percentage every quarter, or every year or even every 4 years if there is a kind of fear for some kind of a market correction and a desire to protect oneself from a potential market correction.


You are trying to suggest that you are not gambling becuae you happen to know when the top is going to be and when the bottom is going to be.  That is close to crazy in terms of the distinction that you are trying to make when guys are screwing around with their whole holdings.  I can maybe see once you have reached or exceeded your target then maybe you sell a certain percentage?  perhaps 10% to 25%?  but still that would be risky because if you are just barely at your target, then as soon as you sell, you are going to be 10% to 25% below your target and you won't have the BTC anymore.  Can you see how some of the longer term HODLers are thinking about this differently?  It seems strange to believe that you are trying to reach your target in order that you can sell everything, yet for me it does not seem strange to believe that once you reach your target, then you go into another kind of a phase in which you have more flexibility, and maybe you are not so focused on ONLY accumulating BTC but you are also focused on ways to maintain your stash, perhaps within a kind of system and/or guidelines.  It seems that one thing that you (Asiska02) seem to be assuming, which is different from me, is that you go from the accumulation phase to the liquidation phase and you are completely skipping the maintenance stage in the middle.. so for each of the stages, there are early, middle and late stages, so each stage is going to have some differing perspectives from each other, but they still might contain some elements of the other stages, depending on where you are at.

Of course, you (Asiska02) are free to go straight from BTC accumulation stage to liquidation stage, but it seems to me that you will end up losing a lot of the value and benefits of maintaining a decently-sized stash of BTC that you had worked up to accumulating and the many options that likely come from maintaining it rather than merely selling it all for worthless fiat or where-ever else you were considering putting your value.

The point is if you can invest 100$ (or more) per week in Bitcoin then its best but if you don't have that much capital available weekly or monthly then invest as much as you can afford easily. Bitcoin today is over 37k and we don't know what its price will be a year or two from today. Just as that guy 27$ went sky high in few years, we don't know how far will our investment go in coming years. We have faith in Bitcoin price that it will defiantly go up in coming years.
Just don't start selling if you start seeing a small profit in bitcoin rather its better to HODL as price start going up enormously in 3 to 4 years. So buy Bitcoin and HODL for long term.

That is why it is good to bank on only accumulating Bitcoin always because Bitcoin is a solid project and has been there for several years. If you buy Bitcoin and hodl, you will not lose your money because Bitcoin's gain in price gives rise to a good crypto market and altcoin will start to gain in price when Bitcoin price goes up. Also, Bitcoin always sets a new all-time high during the bull market. Bitcoin is the only coin that gives you total control over your money. Why do you want to invest in altcoins that will cause you to lose your money? Buy Bitcoin with a DCA strategy and hodl.

It is not easy to control the psychological comfort in cases like this when it turns out to be money. This is one of the greatest feelings to be able to control when one has already committed themselves into it. Many advises have been given in the past, that one has to have made up their mind before venturing into bitcoin but more than 50% of these investors are still battling on how to control their psychology into not losing their money and this is normal for every being it just differs the way everyone can control theirs. Newbies that have experience of this will now have better understanding of the market now and will plan well on when to accumulate and hold on or when to take profit and not greedy until the bear market  approaches again before selling, because that’s the biggest regrettable feeling one can have again after waiting for a long time for the money to grow. It is good to learn from others experience while also learning how to manage your funds and keep secure your investment before selling them out for profit.



Bitcoin investment holding is not meant to be played, it is full of volatility and one cannot tell what the next move of the market is. Bitcoin investment is the most easiest investment one can think of when it comes to investing their money for profit in the long run. Just buy some, hold on to them, sell when you’ve reached or hit the target you want. When it doesn’t hit the target you set for it due to the volatile nature of the market and the bull market already over, it is good to sell them off and get the profit already accumulated. Waiting for the bull run to come when it seems unlikely to come at that time again is just like gambling and if you gamble your money, you’ll end up losing more money and get little or no profit for all the wait over the years.

If we choose to use the DCA strategy in collecting Bitcoin, it will indeed be able to help us earn income if the price has increased. We can buy whatever according to our financial condition and keep buying it consistently to be able to make a profit when the price increases later.
It is very difficult to be able to make predictions and the predictions we make are in accordance with the conditions that occur in the market, yes I agree with you, using several strategies in collecting Bitcoin will certainly enable us to enjoy the benefits of what we do.

Of course, I largely put together those price ranges and the odds for them happening in a kind of quickie response to you, and kind of suggesting that there might be needs to account for various other scenarios that might end up happening, and sure even my odds for Conservative are the greatest out of all of them, and sure maybe I got my numbers a bit wrong, but still it's ONLY 35% odds as compared to adding up all of the other possible options.  Yet the way that you seem to be describing the matter is that you are putting all your expectations in one area.. and furthermore in your original post, you just said $130k.. so sure maybe you have some kind of $130k give or take $20k, but you did not say that in your post... so I find it somewhat problematic to speak so precisely and even confidently regarding something that really does not have very high odds of happening, even if it could be close to the center of more likely scenarios.

Another thing is that within this scenario, I am presuming that we are going to reach a new ATH at some point prior to the end of 2025, and even that is not a given, but it is a central underlying assumption to be presenting the numbers that I present.. so maybe we might even say that at this point there are perhaps ONLY 70% to 80% odds that we are even going to get a new ATH prior to the end of 2025, and then if we were to end up entering into a new ATH earlier in the time period such as this year or even sometime in the first half of 2024, the numbers within the various ranges  might need to change too.. because the assignment of numbers are what I believed yesterday, and if facts change, then I may need to adjust my numbers, and sure it might take a bit of a change in the facts for me to start to believe that some of the numbers might need to be changed in order to line up with my new assessment based on what I might believe to be new  facts and/or new logic.


2% is too optimistic? And what about my assignment of 0.5% odds for more than $2.5million. is that too optimistic too?  

>>>>>"Pie in the sky:  $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2%  [a 33x to 83x price appreciation from $30k]"<<<<

>>>>>"SuperCharged Pie in the sky:  greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5%  [more than a 83x price appreciation from $30k]"<<<<

How would you propose that we fix what you believe to be too optimistic.. since I already put out those numbers we should not remove the numbers, but instead assign lower odds to them.. so what kind of numbers do you believe to be more realistic for those two upper categories?  Are they zero or is there some kind of a non zero probability that you could imagine that justifies assigning them  some kind of probability.. right now.. not 6 months down the road, but now.

Remember in 2013 we had more than a 100x price appreciation in just one year from BTC prices less than $10 and going to right around $1,163.

Remember in 2017 we had right around a 78x price appreciation in two years going from $250 to $19,666.

Remember in 2021 we had right around a 16.5x price appreciation in two-ish years going from $4,200 to $69k.

I find it difficult to merely assign a narrow set of scenarios and thereafter expect BTC to comply, even if you consider that your set of scenarios is the most probable, and you might end up being correct, but that surely does not mean that other scenarios are not potentially reasonable and/or deserving some kind of a consideration and/or probability that is more than just dismissing the other variations as if they were zero% odds, merely because for some reason you seem to have aspirations to be a wannabe sorcerer.


Your assertion to not do price speculation is also nuts for at least a couple of reasons.

1) people like to do price speculation
2) there is some kind of a range in which some probable outcomes are more likely than others, so we cannot just throw up our hands and say that all possible outcomes are equal because they are not, even if different folks assign different probabilities to different possible outcomes.  Some people think in absolutes and are more likely to be wrong (like jrrsparkles).  And, other people think in waffling terms about "anything is possible," and they are likely to be right (like you), but you are still not saying anything when you say that anything can happen, and even if you are correct, it is a bunch of bullshit, even in your own mind it is bunch of bullshit.. ..

but then at the same time, we might say, I don't know that the BTC price is going to be in 2 years or even in 6 years, but in 10 years, I expect it to be higher than it is now and even accounting for debasement of fiat... That is not a totally unreasonable approach, but it seems a bit lacking in desires to have some more specifics about what might happen along the way in order to attempt to plan a wee bit MOAR better.  


I doubt it.  The table that I drew presumes that BTC will get to a new ATH before the end of 2025, so it has already been described in those terms when maybe it is ONLY 70% or 80% likely to get to a new ATH before the end of 2025, so in that regard, it would be possible to have a table that accounts for up, down and sideways, but the table was already created with a pretty strong underlying presumption, but once the presumption is met then the table is 100% true because the price had thereby entered into the most bearish of the ranges.  If you want to have a table that has all possibilities, then such a table could be drawn, and then numbers would be there for upside scenarios, downside scenarios and sideways scenarios, and even if any of us might disagree with the odds assigned to such prognostications, if the framework is set up correctly, it is possible to account for anything that could end up happening in regards to the BTC price.   Are you making a request for such a table?  Or you merely believe it is not possible to make one?


Sure that's what you think, and you can choose to live a life like that.  No problem.  Other people have different ideas, and we are even in the "speculation" section of the forum which surely consider speculation to be a relevant topic, and it seems that you want to error on the side of not doing it, which seems strange to be hanging out in these here parts.


If you have a long enough investment timeline, it still might be o.k. to hold through the UPs and the DOWNs, even though it may well be painful, so it is not always the better move to cash some out on the way up, especially if you are fairly new to bitcoin and you are still accumulating.. so since bitcoin has tended to be quite volatile (and there is no real reason to speculate that such volatility is going to stop in the short to medium term) it is likely that a lot of newbies might not be able to time their first cycle in a way that gives financial and/or psychological comfort to them no matter what they do...

It is easy to look at what the BTC price did after the fact and to conclude what you "should have done" which many times is ONLY clear when looking back at the facts, so there is really no easy way to know what was going to happen with any level of meaningful specifics in order to really be able to play those waves without just ending up getting lucky, and it seems that we should not be striving to gamble with our bitcoin investments in games of luck kinds of plays rather than taking more solid strategies that might just involve ongoing and persistent accumulation until we reach our target level of accumulation and maybe even over accumulation and then if profits might come after that then maybe we can adjust our strategy from accumulation into maintenance.. Even though there are some folks who could come into bitcoin with lump sum investing, for a lot of normal folks it could take 4-10 years or longer just to get from BTC accumulation stage into BTC maintenance stage. .so it seems a bit fruitless to be kicking yourself for not playing BTC price waves as good as you could have played them.

We can never be certain about market movements. But if normally we can buy from dip then surely we can make profit from our investment. But the point is, can we always buy Bitcoin from the dip? Of course not. But if we can buy and hold Bitcoin with the expectation of long-term profit, then we can get the right solution for the mentality of buying from the dip. Whatever the current price of Bitcoin can be considered as a dip. Moreover, we can turn our Bitcoin portfolio into a large asset by following DCA in long-term Bitcoin investment. They can use this opportunity to accumulate bitcoins for those who earn a certain amount. By using this method, we can reduce our risk on the one hand and also have confidence in creating a reliable asset for the long term.

If you look at market conditions and the surrounding environment with income levels that are still the same as usual, I still want to run DCA rather than saving money in a place that in the end will not produce anything. Apart from that, there is no guarantee that money saved for months to buy something will last without being used, unless there is other income to support it when we need money quickly. So DCA is still powerful enough to be used to buy Bitcoin if someone still really wants to collect Bitcoin in that way from now on.

This reminds me of how of a concept where too much knowledge can make one begin to doubt things. Indeed too much knowledge can make someone redundant and this can lead to missed opportunities especially in a portfolio like Bitcoin.

A simple explanation for this is the case if those who have great technical skills and have assumed they have mastered the market so well that they can predict every move.  They buy and sell effortlessly but cumulatively,  they might not be making much money at the end of it all because one loss wipes out series of wins. People in this category hardly hold Bitcoin because they will be waiting for the perfect dip to buy and will sell again when they feel there will be correction with the hope of buying back.

Meanwhile a novice who just learnt about Bitcoin and is motivated could simply buy and keep in his wallet, not worried about selling for quick profits. Such person will end up making more money at the long run.

Bitcoin interfaces is actually very simplified these recent times. The wallets, exchanges and Apps where we use Bitcoin has got easier over the years and they are easy to use and navigate. You don't need to know every detail of something to use it. Most persons don't even know how their local currencies works. In my country people use Naira all the time without having a clue or the slightest idea on how the financial system works and how the government regulates the distribution of money. Only few people understand this over here but yet people still make use of fiat and the local banking system.

I think that people are just reluctant to try to get an understanding of Bitcoin. A week is enough to get some knowledge and start investing if you have the fund. Well, there is no reason to expect people to go into Bitcoin so easy, not everyone is that smart enough that is why I won't blame some person. It may take me two or three days to understand the Bitcoin whitepaper but to someone it may take them weeks.

Sometimes it seems to me that it is much easier for a beginner to make money on Bitcoin than for those who have been involved in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin for several years. Even I remember myself, at the beginning of my journey I just bought Bitcoin and did nothing else, because I was afraid of making a mistake due to the fact that I had little knowledge. The bull market began and the Bitcoin that I was holding rushed up. But the main mistake here is that I didn't take profit and then the bear market began. I'm talking about this because I was close to a great result, but I didn't take one right step. Some beginners can also buy and hold Bitcoin, at the moment when it grows to the skies, lock in at least part of it and become more successful. In any case, in words it looks simple, but in reality it is quite difficult to do this.

I don't think there is need to dwell on the price speculation because nobody knows what the price of Bitcoin will look like in years to come but one thing we are certain of is the good potential, so that should only guide us as our roadmap and motivation to keep accumulating Bitcoin.

Because nothing good could come out of trying to predict what the price of Bitcoin will be, because drawing those price timetable and if the price doesn't get to your speculated price it could cause you to start panicking and affecting your investment decisions.

Perhaps I don't know how the price speculation motivate you but I think that since you have known and believe the potential of Bitcoin you should just keep accumulating and leave the price to play it role.

I would say being conservative is the best choice and anything above is added bonus so I would like to stick with the 150K and that's the more realistic value too in my prediction.

Pie in the sky, really 2% chance at the end of 2025? JJG is being Too optimistic.