However, it is clear that a rich investor who is not that serious to invest aggressively but invest some amount without being consistent will likely be behind the poor committed investor because his bitcoin portfolio size will not be up to the the poor investor in 20yrs time like you stated and before you know it due to the compound profit in the poor investor bitcoin, he might even get almost as rich as the inconsistent rich investor. This is the power that the longer your bitcoin investment and portfolio size is the better opportunity of you have to be successful and even get richer than those rich people who didn't invest in bitcoin.
That's a cool way to put it, but I think I will narrow this down to the fact of seriousness or commitment because some poor folks that lack these virtue can also fail to hold, being poor isn't actually a motive for them to hold for long and being rich doesn't make you reluctant to hold for long, but I totally understand your point though but Micheal saylor is one rich fuck that have continued buying and stacking Bitcoin despite the fact that he has lots of money and Bitcoin also. Although like JJG was implying the order reluctancy tend to be more on rich fellows but a share portion of these poor folks too are lazy when they lack the sight to see a prosperous future in keeping or continually buying and holding Bitcoin.
Our society and our world is about the rich and the poor. We can distinguish between a rich person and a poor person only by seeing that there is economic inequality.
We use examples of rich and poor in order to create examples that will stand out, and hopefully, you can recognize that there are a lot of gradients that exist at the same time, even though surely a lot of examples of unfairnesses exist too... yet I doubt that if we are trying to understand our own situation better that it would be very practical to get caught up with extreme examples in order to figure out how we might tailor our own approach to BTC investing.
Just as a poor person dreams of improving his financial condition, a rich person dreams of how to increase his money. Those who are less economically well off work hard and with the money they earn they can only support their family but they can't change their economic status much unless they get a big opportunity.
It seems that many of us in this thread are suggesting that we are not going to ONLY rely upon luck of some "BIG opportunity" but hopefully instead each of us should be attempting to work toward improving his own situation and circumstances based on what resources he has available, and there are many ways to profit without having to necessarily aspire towards goals that may not be reached, but instead enjoy a decent amount of satisfaction to be able to establish reachable and realistic goals.. some of the goals will be shorter term and some will be longer term, and it seems that we should be reaching shorter term goals from time to time, and maybe sometimes we might need to tweak our longer term goals in light of our progress or lack of progress that may well change the odds of being able to reach the longer term goals as they had been originally established.
Investing is easy for rich people because they have enough money to invest and they regularly get opportunities to invest much more money than a poor person. While rich people have such opportunities, poor people do not have such opportunities. They work hard to earn money. And from that money they set aside some money and the amount is not much. But even if the amount of money is not much, if a poor investor continues to invest a certain amount of money regularly for a long time, then he is successful in investing.
I doubt that you are saying it very clear because even within the rich person and the poor person groups there will be varying levels of ambition, so sometimes action will end up making decently BIG differences, even though the actions may or may not end up bringing the person out of their status.
A poor person's job would be not to follow others and be content with what he invests himself. If someone else invests several times more than him and he follows that person, the poor person will be disappointed that his small investment may not meet his expectations. If you have faith and trust in your investment and can invest regularly for a long period of time, it is possible to achieve 100% success from investment even by investing a small amount of money.
Nothing is 100%, but surely there is going to be attempts to balance approaches that may or may not result in success, yet I would imagine that the more practices that are better will increase chances of having better results.
Buying in lump sum can also be good for the short term investment as to those who finds it necessary, maybe a period of 2 years. Imagine those who bought Bitcoin when the price was down as $15k and checking out the current price now that is already enough profit, now holding for a minimum of 2 years this is a blown up investment.
The longer the investment is held for, the greater the potential for profit from that investment. The point you are making is that investing in Bitcoin when it was worth fifteen thousand dollars and selling the investment at the present time would have made an investor a lot of money. Let's say you bought a bitcoin at $15,000 and you haven't sold your bitcoin yet, where the current price of bitcoin is $45,000. Instead of selling Bitcoin at $45,000, you plan to hold your investment for a longer period of time.
After holding for two more years, you see that the price of Bitcoin has touched one hundred thousand dollars, so which one is more profitable, investing for two years or investing for four years or more? Of course, holding the investment for four years or more will give you higher returns and if you hold your investment for a longer period, the profit potential may be higher, so plan for a longer period of time when holding your investment.
I agree with your overall premise Patrol69, but you still are not thinking in long enough timeframes since there is no guarantee in the short term or in the long term that BTC prices are going to be higher, even though bitcoin has a history of its price going up, but sometimes not within less than a 4 year cycle because there can be periods of extended draw down, and even though bitcoin has historically been on a 4 year cycle that follows a certain pattern, bitcoin's price performance is not guaranteed to continue in that same structure, even though the 4-year cycle continues as one of the strongest, if not the strongest of the models, it still is not guaranteed.. and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (referring to the ones outlined by Trace Mayer) are also not guaranteed to continue, even though they are doing pretty good historically, and there is no real reason to down them from continuing, even though they are not directly correlated to short term price moves, there remain pretty good chances that bitcoin is going to remain amongst the best of investments, if not the best.
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If someone is hesitant to take risk then they will never get rewards even financially but the risk they are taking should also be calculated not just completely blatant. Even we know bitcoin is going to be big, the conservative approach is invest a part of your savings in bitcoin, remaining into other assets as well that will fulfil the criteria of don't put all eggs in one basket. Which may take more time to accumulate wealth with the diversification strategy but it gives us leverage to past the hard time if one of the asset invest isn't doing good because it can be compensated with the profits made from others.
We cannot assume that everyone is coming to bitcoin with an already existent investment portfolio.
The fact of the matter is that so many folks do not have much if anything invested and/or saved, so we have to consider a variety of scenarios, including that it could well be quite conservative to ONLY invest into bitcoin until the investment portfolio reaches a certain size (whether that is 25% of the annual income or 1x or 2x or some other amount) prior to starting to employ diversification methods.
The very first diversification methods is just to make sure that there is an emergency fund and a bitcoin fund, and the need to diversify into other assets likely comes later, unless you are already starting with some other assets, such as a 401k (or other kinds of retirement accounts).. Some employers provide 401ks instead of pensions, and so if they match funds, then that may well be something that someone has already built up prior to getting into bitcoin or it may be something that is being offered to them, and then they would have to consider how much to invest into bitcoin, if they might already be struggling to invest at least as much as the employers matching amount.. which might even be something like 5% of the persons salary.. So anyhow, there could be some competing interests, even though we cannot necessarily assume that people have other investment options that are close to even being as good as bitcoin and sometimes if they think that they have other potentially better investment options, they may well end up not being correct in their assessment of what some other investment options might have to offer as compared with bitcoin.
If the Bitcoin spot ETF approval date is pushed back, then there will be another big correction in the market, then it will be a good time to buy Bitcoin. But before investing you must invest according to your own thinking and research.
Let's get this right, even if there's a change in Bitcoin ETF approval date not to be January again, there's still going to be high expectations on the Bitcoin market price because we are going to still experience the bullrun after halving, what we should ensure doing now is to make sure we are buying and holding as much as we could afford, there's a time coming that will be more appreciated than this after halving has taken place, every bitcoin holder will have a reason to smile.
You are correct 348Judah; however, part of the problem of relatively newbie investors (and even sometimes the non-newbies) is that if the perceive that a dump might be coming prior to a pump, they will try to play that wave, and they may or may not end up being correct.
Many long term bitcoiners don't even play around with such short-term BTC price movements whether they are going to happen or not... especially since there is a lot of risk to sell your BTC rather than merely just buying more if there does happen to be a dip, but surely there are people who work towards wanting to play both directions... which many times does not end up working out as well in practice as it sounds in theory.
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Making wealth doesn't measure but it has criteria and for cryptocurrencies you have more chances of making wealth with bitcoin than any other investment of cryptocurrency, but some of us won't understand the scenario I'm trying to elaborate concerning cryptocurrency diversification of investment, actually it's good to diversify when you have already examined the coins that is valuable and still have potential and reputation as bitcoin has.
We should not presume that everyone referring to diversification is referring to diversifying into shitcoins. Sure some guys think that there is a need to diversify into shitcoins, but the term diversification is not automatically about shitcoins, since there are a variety of other assets in which a bitcoiner could diversify into such as equities, properties, bonds, commodities and cash or cash-like equivalencies. and there could be some other things too that might relate to personal business matters, so diversification does not automatically mean that the person raising the term is a shitcoiner... even though people do sometimes raise that concern before it is even an issue.. since especially a newbie to investing may well not diversify until his investment portfolio size reaches a certain size in which it starts to make sense for his particular situation.
What we have seen so far in this discussion about Lump sum and DCA is that Lump Sum is good provided you are good to invest it for longer duration i.e. more then 5 years. DCA is also good specially for those who don't have enough money to spend. We have seen this case in hype-3, where you invest 60$ per week for 10 years from 2013 to 2023 and ROI is 3595%.
I may be one of few guys who is not very much interested in this ETF stuff. I will go with accumlating Bitcoin in DCA manner since to me thats the only sustainable way to move forward.
Buying in lump sum can also be good for the short term investment as to those who finds it necessary, maybe a period of 2 years. Imagine those who bought Bitcoin when the price was down as $15k and checking out the current price now that is already enough profit, now holding for a minimum of 2 years this is a blown up investment.
That's a cool way to put it, but I think I will narrow this down to the fact of seriousness or commitment because some poor folks that lack these virtue can also fail to hold, being poor isn't actually a motive for them to hold for long and being rich doesn't make you reluctant to hold for long, but I totally understand your point though but Micheal saylor is one rich fuck that have continued buying and stacking Bitcoin despite the fact that he has lots of money and Bitcoin also. Although like JJG was implying the order reluctancy tend to be more on rich fellows but a share portion of these poor folks too are lazy when they lack the sight to see a prosperous future in keeping or continually buying and holding Bitcoin.
In terms of who would hold Bitcoin much longer comparing both the rich guy and poor guy, it may be from personal decisions on holding that long but i think the rich dude will hold longer as he has all he needs and with the knowledge of Bitcoin altering his investment wouldn't matter to him cause he has many more to comply for his needs. The rich mindset in terms of investment are just too professional, they build the mentality of longer term investment than a shorter one.
A poor guy is faced mainly with certain challenges which at a point it becomes an option to sell, yes its compulsory that we must sell when due even the rich guy would sell but in terms of a poor man it may occur precisely the urgency to sell of his portfolio not because he wants to but just that a need arise which his emergency funds would not be of good help to him. In terms of commitment the poor guy will be more committed in investing than the rich guy because he knows how hard it is to raise such money to carry out his DCA.
For me I think the poor guy has the tendency of holding Bitcoin for a longer time. The rich guy who invented with a big money will see a huge profit once there is a little positive shift in the market. But the poor guy whose investment is not that much won't see that big profit in that short positive price movement, hence the need to hold for a longer time till when Bitcoin makes a reasonable price movement let's say from its current price to like $80,000 to $100,000. Unlike the rich who will see a big profit if price move from current price to $46,000 to $50,000.
Of a truth the impact of a little Bitcoin price movement on most of the investors that has invested huge sum of money on Bitcoin is higher than those that has a little amount of Bitcoin but however that shouldn't be your major concern because you can only invest with what you can afford because if you follow how most people are investing you may end up not lasting long on the investment do to the fear of losing out, were as making you to over invested.
And secondly even if you have accumulated a little amount of Bitcoin and decided not to keep accumulating again thinking that sometime in future you will have a big return, perhaps even if the price should hit $100k in the future your profit will still be very small, so actually it doesn't matter how small you are accumulating Bitcoin but what matters is how consistent you are because in the future you will be surprised with what the little amount you were using to accumulate has worth.
Of course a lot of the actual power in bitcoin comes from the potential of compounding, so even if someone is rich and they invest $1 million at $22k and then cash it all out at $44k, they have made a million dollars, so that's pretty good, but it still could take years and years and years for a relative newbie to really feel the power of his $20 per week (or even his $100 or $200 per week) to really add up to meaningful amounts because even if he has been in bitcoin for a whole cycle, he still is mostly getting the compounding from the earliest of his investments, but if he continues to DCA into bitcoin, his later investments might still need to run a whole cylce before they start to experience some compounding effects (and the price performance is not even guaranteed, either.
So as an example, lets look at the guy investing $100 per week since October 2019. He has gone through a whole cycle and invested
$22,300 and accumulated around 1.25 BTC (worth $54,500), so he has done really well with more than doubling of his investment amount, but it is the earliest of his investments that are giving him the most compounding, and some of his later investments are barely in profits and some of them might be in the negative...
So part of the power of DCA does have to do with the power of compounding in the earliest of investments, and if we add an additional 4 years and go back to October 2015, we get even better compounding results... so the
$100 per week adds up to around $43,200 invested and accumulation of nearly 19.3 BTC (worth $841,480) , so something like 19.5x appreciation, and I would suggest that a lot of that is the compounding effect that price appreciation comes from the earliest of the investments (the earliest of the BTC buys).
.... after doing some analysis I have the opinion that Bitcoin will continue to grow for the next few years even though we don't know what the future will be like. But I am optimistic about this, it can be seen from the increasing number of people getting to know bitcoin every year and they are starting to be interested in investing in bitcoin.
Wow bitcoin is going to continue to grow for the next few years? who would have thunk?
Maybe you should consider the possibility of a 4-10 years or more plan to invest?
Oh your research doesn't go out that far?
Anyhow, my point is that a few years sounds like a short term investment to me, and if you are considering playing the wave in the next few years, you may be right and maybe not.
Another possibility could be that you start to invest into bitcoin with a plan to stay for a few years, yet to continue to study it, and maybe you will learn more about bitcoin during those first few years that you are investing. Perhaps? perhaps?
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Now, the green candle has returned to the market, but the price still seems to need more time to increase high again.
Let's just wait and you can buy it again if you want. Don't forget to continue the DCA you are doing if you are already using DCA.
I doubt that waiting is a great idea, unless you are coupling your wait with regular buys... but sure, of course, it is your choice if you believe waiting to be a good idea.
