Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 416. (Read 123322 times)

You talk like you definately know what you are saying. Bitcoin bullrun is never predicted in anywhere as much as I know. Even if, there is no guarantee of a certain amount of $40k. Bitcoin price is mearly base on absumption. Not prediction. So let us not build our trust on a false hope which might cause psycological or mental trauma when it didn't turn out the way we might have hoped.


Bitcoin is not stable, and predicting it's price will cause more problem to you when you don't get back in return what you expect. Even as many of us always talk about buy dip and hold, I also think some are mearly following the trend  but thinks of how to make profit in coming bullrun. And this is the reason see people are buying the dip and hold otherwise. And it's a wrong interpretation of the Dip and hold. Note: I am not referring to you but using this as an example to explain to others.

I am excited with current bitcoin price keep going up last several days and success raised above $35k, but its can't stoppable my main target keep accumulate in bitcoin despite many people mindset right now bitcoin on higher price. I worry with many people mindset exactly when bitcoin have lower price they are worrying for investing or keep accumulating and prefer waiting with another lower price, but their expectation was wrong with bitcoin success raise to higher and many of them have classic question "its late to invest in bitcoin today?"

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To be long term holding in bitcoin and keep accumulate as how many possible depend on your financial condition you must have long term target and how much profit from current bitcoin price to sell, for my self never sell my bitcoin daily day investment before raising more than 50% of current price I bought, keep hold it and accumulate every day during still not raise with my selling price target.

Indeed, until now there is still an opinion that volatility will persist as technology matures and Bitcoin becomes more widely accepted, however, in the current scenario, Bitcoin is still volatile and can create liquidity problems for traders.

Yes, Buying and Holding for the long term makes a lot of sense because Bitcoin futures are very different from others and are as serious as an investment for making money that is credible for the long term.

If someone has used the DCA method in the investment model to buy, I think there is no need to speculate on prices anymore.

You have been involved in investment since 17 years so there is nothing new to tell you about investment as you know all the ins and outs of investment. You invested in 2017 and still didn't sell your investment when the price of Bitcoin touched $65,000. 
After the price of Bitcoin touched the highest $65 thousand you felt that you should hold your investment for a longer time and you did. Since you have not sold your investment even after the price of Bitcoin has hit a record high, there is nothing to discuss with you whether your investment is long-term because you are a long-term Bitcoin holder. You should not think that it was a bad decision not to sell your Bitcoin when it was worth $65,000. I would say in the context of that time you made the right decision because the market was very positive at that time and the Bitcoin market was approaching $100,000 at that time no one could sell their investment even if they wanted to. 

We missed out on a $65k opportunity but better things await us ahead. The market is now positive and the expectation is that the Bitcoin market will touch $50000 in early 2024 and the price of Bitcoin will increase gradually thereafter and I have held my investment on that assumption. I am never disappointed in holding my investment because I believe that if I hold my investment I will definitely get good returns at some point.

When you make a plan it must be a good and positive plan. Long term planning is best in any investment, when a trader plans for long term he can be successful. We have seen that there are many people who have short-term plans and have not succeeded so far, instead breaking down midway. If we observe the mentioned picture carefully, we can definitely gain a lot of knowledge from it. Here basically those who will hold for long term have no worries and never have to be emotional if they invest patiently then with time they will be successful. When an investor invests Bitcoin for long term he does not get busted during market volatility and he does not have any volatility about it but holds Bitcoin patiently. And when a short-term trader trades with the hope of profiting in a short period of time, he faces various types of losses as we can see from this picture. We have seen many times of volatility in the market when many traders break down and face losses. People who make short-term plans take a long time to succeed rather face losses most of the time. That's why long term planning is best to be successful easily, so I think short term planning is never good for everyone. So always plan high and hold Bitcoin investment for long term, it will lead you to success in future.

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For sure any of us can make mistakes of attempting to be overly strategic in regards to buying dips, and I am pretty sure i have been arguing these points until I am blue in the face, and sometimes when we are focusing on buying the dip, we may well end up with a lower cost basis (possibly and possibly not like you suggested) but then we also might end up with fewer coins too..   There is a certain amount of value to continuing to accumulate BTC, and yeah sometimes if the price dips then we are kicking ourselves for mostly running out of fiat to buy more, but we cannot really know that we would have been able to buy more BTC merely because we ended up hanging onto a lot of fiat rather than just regularly and ongoingly buying BTC.

And yeah, maybe buying on dip does become more of a luxury (and/or advantage) of the guy who already reached his/her BTC accumulation target or is well on the road to getting there.

Let's say for example, you are aiming to get 1 years salary into bitcoin in 5 years or less, so you already realize that you have to try to invest at least 20% of your salary into bitcoin to just get to that point, and sure maybe you might feel that 20% is pushing it, and maybe you figure that you might be able to get some cheaper bitcoin by waiting for dips, but maybe in the end, it might not really matter, so maybe you should just be using the whole of that 20% to buy BTC every week (or whatever is your purchasing frequency) and if you happen to come across more cash because you got a bonus or because you were able to cut some of your expenses, then maybe you might want to hold that extra cash on the side for buying more on dips..

but then maybe overall you are feeling that you need to get to one year's salary invested into bitcoin before you might be able to relax a bit in your BTC accumulation methods, and sometimes these are kinds of artificial and somewhat arbitrary goals, but they might also be indicators that you might start to feel that you are in a position to be more flexible with your style of investing.  

There can be a bit of anal-retentive behaviors involved in figuring out these kinds of passages of thresholds.  I believe that I got to higher levels of being able to relax about my bitcoin holdings at 3 different stages. The first was getting above 10% of my investment portfolio into it.  The second was when my BTC portfolio was in profits, and the third was when my BTC holdings started to equal the value of all of my other investments (which was when it got to 50% of the value of my total investment portfolio due to the lopsidedness in BTC's price performance in comparison to my other assets).   As I am listing these, they sound so arbitrary, and so it seems to me that individuals are going to cross these kinds of thresholds at differing points, and the crossing of the thresholds might thereafter cause them to go through a review of their whole approach and perhaps make some adjustments to their style based on crossing over these kinds of thresholds.

By the way, getting to fuck you status could be another one of those crossed thresholds (and frequently entry level fuck you status is going to be in the ballpark of 20x to 30x annual salary/cost of living expenses), and surely I would expect that most bitcoiners are likely to have other investments, besides bitcoin and cash by the time they get to entry-level fuck you status, but there still could be some bitcoiners who do not have a lot of different kinds of assets, and surely there might be challenges to have fewer assets, but there are likely ways to accomplish that.. and at the same time, sometimes the BTC holdings might feel like it is the only thing that a person has when it is outperforming and dwarfing all other assets in your investment portfolio.. .so there could become some questions about selling off some of the BTC, merely to not have so much value in one asset.. and there could be some assurance that might come from just having some stock index funds, some property or maybe some other kinds of investments that hold somewhat steady, even if some of them might have expenses associated with owning them.

Thanks JJG, if I boil it down to one thing I think got a bit too caught up in bftd to lower my avg buy-in price when I should have been more consumed with pure accumulation through dca. Avg price is just not that important when I really thought about it because it will even out as you dca to your target. Just right it’s probably at its lowest price for a while and will continue to climb through this cycle.

 It’s a valuable lesson to be fair and the only good thing I suppose is I was still accumulating just not as much as should have been. I ended up pulling all the lower buys, and used to buy in end of October with last dca buy.

I think I’m more likely to review btfd again after I make it my goal amount which i estimate to happen near the end of next year.

It is good to have thought through your strategy and make sure that it fits for your situation, and surely here we are not getting so much into trading strategies, but sometimes it is important to figure out a kind of psychological balance that works, and since you say that you are striving to accumulate BTC, then you may well be continuing to add funds to your accounts as well?   It is more difficult to build your account merely by trading back and forth between BTC and USDT... so I don't really mind the idea of it, and even something like 70/30 BTC/USDT might seem more practical to me, but surely a variety of your individual factors are going to matter.. including how long that you have been stacking sats...

so if you have been stacking sats for a long time (gosh even if we go by your forum registration of more than 7 years ago), then it would make less sense to have your funds so skewed in favor of USDT, and I remember some times in the past (in around late 2017) that my funds had gotten into the ballpark of 90% BTC and 10% cash, and I was feeling like I had way too much cash, but that was when the BTC price was going up, so I was shaving off some BTC along the way up, so I could see that there might be times that a person will shave off BTC on the way up, and then get towards higher levels of cash as contrasted with BTC, but I still have some troubles understanding the justification to try to maintain 50% cash (or USDT),

so I suppose just on the face of it, it seems to be me that you might not be very strongly convicted in terms of believing in the power of BTC... because we know that the dollar (and thus also USDT) is in a situation in which it is inevitably losing a lot of purchasing power on a regular basis.. sure they try to say that it is in the single digits, but it also depends on what you are trying to buy, so it seems to me that in the coming years bitcoin is poised to do quite a bit better than the dollar and the rate that the dollar is losing purchasing power.. but surely at the same time, there can be a lot of up and down along the way to see how it plays out and also various periods of time in which bitcoin may end up doing surprise exponential UPward price moves that never end up really recovering (or dipping back down), and then you could end up regretting that you had chosen such a seemingly relatively whimpy bitcoin allocation.


It seems to me that you Churchillvv are missing some understandings in regards to the power of bitcoin, and sure you can approach your own bitcoin investment however you like, whether you perceive urgency to get as many sats as you are able to get in terms of your own budget and not being too whimpy while at the same time not over doing it. 

For anyone who is serious in his/her efforts to stack sats, it can be quite challenging to achieve these kinds of balances between aggressiveness, not over doing it, and also not being too whimpy in terms of trying to time the market when dips do not end up happening.

I am not even completely opposed to your ideas, Churchillvv.. because since bitcoin seems to be quite a bit skewed towards being an asymmetric bet to the upside and likely amongst the best of investments(if not the best) in the midst of one of the largest wealth transfers to ever take place, you can still profit from merely being in bitcoin and not being aggressive about it, and even being a bit whimpy... but at the same time, there are people who seem to recognize the power of bitcoin, and would like to increase their bitcoin exposure reasonably within their means, rather than 5, 10 or even 15 years later regretting that they had approached bitcoin too whimpily.

There are a lot of people in the world, maybe even something close to approaching 99% who still do not have any bitcoin, and even the ones who have it might not appreciate the extent to which they are low coiners (and/or under allocated) in terms of if they were to actually understand what bitcoin is.

Each of us can make our own choices in regards to how aggressive that we are in terms of bitcoin accumulation, and it has frequently been my point that even the whimpy ones are likely going to end up advantaging greatly from bitcoin so long as they error on the side of mostly accumulating and holding their bitcoin rather than selling it... but hey you can do whatever you like when it comes to how you choose to manage your own BTC stash.

If i observed very well I guess you have a potion of BTC now. right? You've bought already but you didn't buy when you desired to hit up your targets. So how about someone like that doesn't have yet or is not yet in a state of making an income to invest in Bitcoin.
Your regrets sounds like you don't have self esteem, or you don't believe in yourself, or should say your compare yourself to others success which is awful. I don't have even the minimum of Bitcoin not just me others too but they don't panic as you.
The uppity of Bitcoin price is sudden but most times you encouraged people to be prepared of anything why then do you have to negate yourself. much is to come since you've learnt your lesson you can still hit up your targets or to be specific you can still make your profit from the bull market.

My main goal is to increase my BTC count by maintaining 50% bitcoins 50% usdt. And depending on the price on the market, my pending orders change the state of the deposit - this can lead to a share of 95% of Bitcoin, and vice versa - 95% of USDT. Ultimately, the strategy still strives to make it 50/50. I understand that in this way, in a full market, I will not get all the cream from the price of Bitcoin, just as if it falls, it will not hurt me like those who are 100 percent in Bitcoin. How did I come to these views on accumulation? Since 2017 I have been a Bitcoin holder, I have waited and waited. And when the price became 65k, I didn’t even transfer part of the money to USDT. I believed that the rocket would fly further. But the rocket flew down. And I realized that it’s pointless to just hold it, market fluctuations can be used to increase the share of BTC, and at the same time not shake with fear over the schedule. I do not claim that the strategy I described above is correct. But I came to this, and these are my views. I gave you guys, my arguments. I'm a trader who doesn't trade much. I am a holder who sometimes buys and sells because the funds have to work.

I am happy that you have learnt something new again in your bitcoin journey, because it is only you that can come up with the right amount that you can use on your regular DCA and get prepared because bitcoin price can pump and dump in a twinkle of an eye, and that is why newbies are advice to hodli for long and increase their bitcoin portfolio with regular DCA. Bitcoin investment has great potentials and outperform other assets in the market currently due to its volatile nature and the only way to benefit from it is to invest and increase your bitcoin for a very long term.

The size of your bitcoin and the time duration is what your profit depends on and that is why as time passes by, it is advisable to look for a means to increase your income so that you can also increase the amount that you are using to DCA so that you can reach your bitcoin target earlier, than if you are only accumulating with a particular amount regularly over a long period of time. Since nobody knows if your bitcoin investment will be the one to turn your life around in future. Take your bitcoin journey very precious and threat with caution so that you don't regret your decisions of relenting to buy with a particular amount when you can afford to invest and it wouldn't affect your income. Regular DCA is very effective and has very low risk for a long term hodler who has the passion to accumulate bitcoin, because he believes in bitcoin as an asset that is worth to increase in value with timeline.

For sure, preparing for UP can sometimes be easier said than done, and when then time comes, it becomes quite concrete, and sure the BTC price might dip again.. but then again, it might not.

And, you described a $5k rise, and sure you may largely be correct, because maybe it went up $5k more than what anyone expected, but the fact of the matter is that it went up right around $9k in the last 2-3 weeks from the upper $26ks into the upper $35ks, and sure so far we have had some dipping back down to the lower $34ks, and yeah we could get some more dip, but we might not.

If we failed to prepare, we can ONLY go by what happens to be our current situation and to attempt to rethink if there is anything that we should do to adjust, or to just keep with what we had done and just attempt to learn from the matter.   Sometimes attempting to correct a mistake after it already happened might exacerbate the mistake rather than learning from it so that you are ahead of similar kinds of potential mistakes.

I use this example frequently, but sometimes a mistake can take several months to recover from it.. and maybe even years, so my example is that in October/November 2015, when BTC prices went up from the upper $200s to $500, I did the opposite to what I was supposed to do which was that I continued to buy up to $500, instead of selling or just HODLing.. Of course, I had already considered that I had gotten into stages of overaccumulation so I was supposed to sell small amounts as the BTC price rose, but instead I bought..so even though I scrambled to put some money together after the BTC price dropped back down to $300 and then got stuck in the lower $400s for more than 6 months, there was a bit of locking out and even perception of mistake until the BTC price went back above $500, which was the end of May 2016... so I am not really trying to bring up the idea of selling, but instead the idea that making mistakes can sometimes screw up otherwise good plans for a decent amount of time if we had a plan in place to be in front of price movements and instead we jump straight into the wrong kind of conduct that was not part of our plan and then we later realize that we screwed up.

Since I last posted I have learned something about my self, some people might draw parallels or may have already learnt this about themselves. I was angry that the price went up, and it was the first time I was angry at BTC price even throughout the bear of going/dropping down. I realised too late I hadn't fully prepared for Uppity. I thought I had, I thought I would be happy with double digit value returns. I could handle other asset returns across other investments so why couldn't I project that confidence and experience to BTC. Well what caught me completely off guard was the suddenness. In most if not all other asset classes value add is gradual. You know you build wealth slowly, but like 5K$ increase in BTC price threw me into a loop. I was more angry I hadn't invested more at lower levels than the fact i had just got more returns from one asset in a day than any other asset I have ever owned. The magnitude of that was drowned out by my anger.

Well why I am writing this, what happened, what did I learn. Pretty simple I didn't fully understand, when people said be prepared for uppity, what that meant. I also put too much of my investment money looking at a bargain. I should have put it 100% into dca vs split of DCA and BTFD. I fooled myself into thinking my system was flawless because i didn't prepare for uppity properly. I went back through all my BFTD buys and then compared this to increasing DCA during the same time period. DCA would have out won with this 5k$ uppity.

Shifting my strategy I'm not going put as much emphasis on BFTD vs DCA for a while, there is more severe uppity to come but I have learnt my lesson.

Stay calm, learn shit, and dca on.

It is best if we make due diligence investment decisions when the Bitcoin market is bearish. If we have such a plan to buy from the low market and sell in the high market to earn money, then we must learn the market trends and strategies. And if it is not long, term plan then we should invest and hold so that we can earn from it in the future. Those who have already invested for the future must think positive for the purpose of profiting for the future as currently the Bitcoin market is at $35000. And those who invested during the time of $15k must-have got good amount of profit and able to earn now. Currently, as the market position is moving towards a good position and the climate of complete change is seen in the market, we can definitely say that Bitcoin will touch $40k dollars by the end of the year. So if we invest from the current market then we have a plan to earn in the next bull season so that we control our emotions and be patient.

That's a very nice plan buddy, perhaps while you wait to get ready for Bitcoin investment you could utilize the opportunity by learning the basis and the concept of Bitcoin, and also knowing the investment risk and ways to avert it by managing the risk, however you are in the right place because all the knowledge and strategy of accumulating Bitcoin is always discuss here, so it will help to enhance your knowledge about Bitcoin before you will even start investing.

Perhaps I would like to correct an impression you said "the amount of money you have may not be enough", it doesn't work that way in times of investing on Bitcoin because Bitcoin is not like stock investment that only allows huge amount to invest but on the contrary Bitcoin allows you to invest as little as you could afford.

However that's why DCA strategy came to our discussion because it will help and guide you to regularly accumulate Bitcoin with small money you have, and within years you will be surprise to see the amount of Bitcoin you most have accumulated on your portfolio.

I have attempted Bitcoin trading before and it ended in tears. I learnt a good strategy that was profitable at first but few times it went bad (don't know if I messed some steps or so), I lost everything. Trading is not for the weak or those not technically and psychologically prepared to face the challenges that are numerous. I almost gave up on Bitcoin but when I realized I could much gains by simply buying and holding, a lot of things changed for me. They again came the question of when to buy that the price will not be too high so that one can start seeing the portfolio in profits and not in deep red. It took me some brainstorming and taking some strong decisions to understand that the seasons where price is generally low like last year till a greater part of this year, any point could be a good one to buy. So, a greater part of my problem was solved.

The DCA method - that I have come to learn out of curiosity- have proven to be a golden tool for me because it makes the investment process effortless and consistent. Some of the capitals I lost to trading would have been put to better use if I had adopted the DCA method earlier than I started.

Any new investor that want to start investing in Bitcoin should consider the DCA method because it does not require so much technicalities. The method is straightforward, just that it requires some form of courage to be able to follow it completely without adjusting it haphazardly. As soon as the financial flow is known, one can start the process immediately.

Exactly but if you are the type that have already set up some certain percentage of your income to always invest in bitcoin weekly or monthly, without having another source of income asides this money that comes in a week or month time, it will be very hard for you to achieve that. The much possibility of your achievement in such case is to use more than the percentage you’ve set aside for it to invest in bitcoin. If the repercussions of such actions is controllable and can be bared within that period, it will be a great idea to accumulate more bitcoin at dip while keep focusing on continuing the DCA method. If that is even possible and the repercussions will not be able to sustain one for some other weeks or months, you can hold on to DCAing after you’ve already accumulated more bitcoin at a lower price, then continue back when you’re balanced again. Both ways are good but you just have to chose the one that will best work for you.


You see, the bitcoin market is one of the most unpredictable market trend to foresee or decide by mere looking or analysis, I don’t blame those that couldn’t still buy at a lower price than it was before since they are hoping it would come lower than it was at that time. One thing is to be understood in this market, some opportunities comes but once and you just have to take it when it comes, if you don’t act that time, you might lose that opportunity forever and will regret such actions. In such an unpredictable market, you must first make up your mind to flow with the trend of the market and not wait for the market to hit your prediction price before you can join in. Many ‘Had I know’ but they remain irreversible at this time now. I believe if you’ve understood the market very well and made up your mind or maybe made a mistake of not buying early in the past, you won’t be repeating same mistake this time around again.

We hear many stories of people who have trusted Bitcoin and who have held their Bitcoins for a long time and how Bitcoin has changed their lives. Many people sometimes share success stories of long-term Bitcoin success and it's nice to hear them. I agree with you and I also want to tell you that you should dare to invest in Bitcoin and keep your investment for a long time. After investing in Bitcoin, forget about selling your investment and think about how to grow your investment. If you trust Bitcoin now then I am sure that Bitcoin will give you many good things in future.
One thing we should always keep in mind is that 'Hold is Gold'the more we hold the more we create profit potential.
Those who plan for short-term investment will usually think that the price of Bitcoin will stay between $35,000 and $40,000. For a short-term investor this may be a small expectation but since we have a long term investment plan, we should not expect a Bitcoin price of only $35,000 to $40,000. As long-term investors, our expectations must be high and we must hold our investments for a long time. Whenever we hold our investment for a long period of time, we can achieve more than what we expected to invest.