Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 593. (Read 132346 times)

Is there some reason that you want to be right?

I am just thinking that it does not matter very much.... and maybe that is some of the battle that I have with the underlying premise of this thread.... because from my perspective the main ideas in investing in something (such as bitcoin) that is really highly volatile is to attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, including extreme scenarios, and there is almost no way to be right, so if you do happen to be right, it is likely a kind of luck and therefore a so fucking what... so I am having some troubles in regards to either being right or wanting to be right about something that is dependent upon a whole hell of a lot of variables.. .

Sure, of course, many of us are investing into bitcoin because we recognize and appreciate the fundamental values and/or upside scenarios in regards to where bitcoin is going or might go, but even if there is a strong thesis for bitcoin's long term investment thesis, we can also appreciate that in the short term, the asset can be manipulated all over the place, so it becomes very difficult to really know the short term with any level of certainty.. so if you happen to get some kind of short term prediction right... so what?

Are you short term trading?  or just buying on dips so asserting that the dip is in and anyone who has not already bought the dip, better buy.. so sure, there might be some value in that.. I suppose.



Oh gawd.  What about Hal Finney in 209.?   there are all kinds of examples if you are not just selectively making your claims that you are the first person to figure it out in 2019.. I am not going to waste my time to research the fucking 1,000s of peeps in bitcoin who said the same thing way before you... get a grip  Wind_FURY



You probably need to research more.. but still like you said, it does not matter very much, unless some peeps are trying to act like they first came up with some idea or frameworks.. but hey whatever, do what you like..



There is nothing wrong with trying to have fun and humor.. but having a goal of wanting to be stupid seems a bit weird... but again.. do what you like.

I’m the stupid one, and repeatedly say it in the forum, nor have I believed that I have high levels of accuracy, BUT I might currently be right. The stupid one can be right too. Hahaha.


I have never heard anyone say it with strong convictions among the infuencial members of Bitcointalk. It might be because they didn’t want to look stupid. It doesn’t matter who said it first, or who last said it, the Honey Badger don’t care.


Don’t take the fun out of it, ser. I like to be the stupid one.

Nothing wrong with having bullish ideas, so long as you do not get too worked up in believing that you have high levels of certainty of short-term BTC price movements, and for sure the world reserve currency question has been contemplated since the beginning of bitcoin, so you are hardly saying anything new if you are wanting to proclaim that you made various strong assertions about bitcoin in April 2019, when you created this thread.

Perhaps I am way more interested in guys figuring out their investment strategies rather than making BIG baller claims and assigning high levels of certainty to such claims. 

It still seems that there are a lot of folks who even know about bitcoin and could be buying bitcoin, but they fail and refuse to get off of zero.. so there seem to be some countries and regions with higher BTC adoption rates than others.. and if we look at a variety of these factors (in spite some of the short term BTC price movements), many of us still appreciate that BTC remains a very strong assymetric bet - while at the same time, such assessment does not even necessarily justify going balls to the walls with investing or leveraging into it - because if any of us attempts to be too BIG baller regarding our assertions about where we believe BTC is going, we may end up NOT managing our own funds and investment into bitcoin in such a way that we are able to take advantage of such a seemingly ongoing great investment opportunity... including for normies...

Also, normies get the fuck shaken out of their position, when they fail/refuse to properly prepare and even try to get richie too quickly.. so it can be difficult to survive a 56% BTC price correction, and so who wants to start over again or in BIG ass debt because they are too smartie pants for their own good including specifically knowing about and recognize the long term BTC bullish potential but not engaging in a sufficient amount of prudent money management in order to account for and to prepare (both financially and psychologically) for seemingly outrageous short-term BTC price movements.. that are likely purposefully caused in order to shake as many newbies (and to r3ck them) if possible.

So, what the fuck good does it do to be right if you fail and refuse to employ prudent, practical and non-gambling approaches to accumulating and maintaining the accumulation of your BTC stack until reaching your various goals.. which may well be a long game for a lot of folks, especially the ones in their 20s to which we frequently refer who might not have high levels of cashflow (or even high levels of investment assets or high levels of credit to be able to attempt to take advantage of some of the knowledge and insights that they may well have - as you seem to be "humbly" proclaiming ur lil selfie to be in such clairvoyant category).

But am I truly wrong in believing that the Bitcoin market’s current actions want it to go back, and be like it was the final week January again? Another surge, and Bitcoin would back to the path of reaching a price with 6 digits. Plus when I started the topic only few believed me, when I said that Bitcoin would be a World Reserve Currency, few also believed, but we currently see the actions of some countries’ politicians point to it becoming real.

I agree with your way of describing the overall societal dynamics, and gosh we still must contend with the fact that some of us may have already passed through our 20s, 30s and perhaps beyond that, so we have already made our choices as far as our investing into education and perhaps having had been able to pay for it, but the trade offs may have already been made for several of us.

Now, regarding the extent to which we are even able to both recognize bitcoin as an investment (time and/or money) and then be ready, willing and able to invest into it is also another story.  Some of us are already convinced and we are attempting to establish our stake and to ongoingly employ our bitcoin accumulation strategy in the event that we might not have accumulated enough BTC. 

I doubt that we can presume that very many guys/gals in their 20/30s are going to have enough resources in order to deploy BIGGEDly into bitcoin, so even recognizing bitcoin as a good investment could take some time to establish an adequate stake in it (and I am not even saying that guys/gals have to invest BIG into bitcoin in order to profit stupendously because some people still might feel that they are limited in how much they can invest into bitcoin).   

So, yeah likely for 20/30 year olds there still remains some kinds of needs to work with whatever jobs and skills that they have to get some kind of cashflow in which they can feel some assurance of establishing bitcoin as their hedge investment, and sure maybe $100 per month might be a bit too whimpy of an amount to set aside, yet perhaps they might not be in a good position, either if they attempt to be too aggressive whether that is $1,000 per month or some other more aggressive investment amount.


hahahaha

Don't worry.  I am not trying to fix you.. that might be a lost cause.. hahahahaha


For sure, I would not go that far.  I was describing your historical stance, and sometimes I disagree with you, but ultimately you have to decide for yourself.  Nothing wrong with being humble either.

There are all kinds of areas of smartness, and for sure, I hardly have many clues when it comes to writing code or some of the technical and the math and cryptography matters in bitcoin, and I am not even sure if I am much better at understanding some of those implementation matters in bitcoin as compared to when I got into bitcoin, so there are probably not too many people who are going to have "smartness" regarding all areas, and sure some of us, such as yours truly, may well develop some preaching tendencies from time to time, but still in the end, hopefully many of us are learning along with each other and we change our minds, perspectives and strategies from time to time, too.

I have frequently considered this forum as a mechanism for me to attempt to brainstorm ideas, and even when I write posts, I am sometimes trying to figure out matters or get some matters more clear in my own ways of thinking.

Also, I believe that since I got into bitcoin, I have learned how to attempt to match my investment portfolio better to my emotions and sentiment, but for sure, I am far from any kind of angel in regards to these matters, I have had several instances of acting based on emotions and screwing somethings up, and for sure, I find incrementalism to have been way better for me to lessen the likelihood that I am doing crazy things, and for sure, any of us are going to feel more confident with incrementalism if we do not feel that we had already taken a kind of gambling position in bitcoin or taken a position that is way the hell out of alignment with our sentiment... That has been a part of my own approach to the bitcoin investment matter and trying to learn through the years about how to attempt to synchronize my investment with my overall sentiment, and just learning about my own self and about how to apply my factors can be quite time consuming and absorbing.... so for example, it can take a whole hell of a lot of time to just figure out individual particulars and how to apply and even attempting to figure out the applicability of some strategies as a result of individual particulars.  Those are cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, skills time and abilities to plan, strategize, learn and tweak along the way which might also involve reallocation from time to time, trading or the employment of financial instruments.


One of the great things that continue to exist with bitcoin remains that it has allowed plebs to front run the BIGGER money and the institutions, and plebs have more flexibility too - even if they might not have a lot of capital they can still advantage stupendously from bitcoin, and we still seem to be in relatively early days in bitcoin investing, so there is a matter of both recognizing bitcoin as a good investment and taking prudent and reasonable actions to establish a stake and attempt to continue in terms of attempting to exercise an ongoing investment plan - hopefully until reaching fuck you status.. whether that takes one or two cycles or it may well take 20 years or more depending on personal circumstances and resources.. but if you might happen to be in your 20s and are able to get to fuck you status before your 60s or even in your 40s, you are way the hell ahead of the game for the vast majority of other plebs, and I am not even suggesting engaging in gambling techniques or attempting to rush the process too much, even though contemplating and following a fairly aggressive ongoing bitcoin investment strategy may well be helpful in getting to fuck you status more quickly than you would under normal circumstances (and we know that a lot of normies do not ever get to any kind of meaningful fuck you status - even if they might still get to a level of somewhat financial comfort).

It’s OK JuanJayGee, I know who I am. I’m only human, making many mistakes, and who gets very excited easily on Bitcoin’s every surge. I’m the stupid one, and aware that I’m the stupid one, who tries to learn about Bitcoin from the people who are smarter than me. Plus I’m also a pleb, but remove the plebs, then there wouldn’t be a Bitcoin community.

@Wind_Fury Yeah, life used to start really early for people, as they already had those responsibilities you mentioned from a young age. It is a mark of privilege that most people in developed countries still can study and live the student life well into their 20s. And as aoulain says some even into their 30s enjoying, taking gap years, holidaying, no need to be responsible for anyone else other than themselves.

But as the world ages, inflation rises, wealth becomes concentrated in the hands of the few, pensions become smaller, and more people in non-welfare states suddenly find themselves old and unemployable, shit will get stirred.

We are the fortunate few to be given an opportunity to survive that bleak future.

It seems true that the price of $30k only happened once and we will never see it again, now the price of bitcoin has reached $40k, and I'm happy because I was able to buy about $228 at a price of $34k, and in just 5 days I've profited about 15%, this is really phenomenal.

Actually. There are still a lot more it has to offer perhaps the next decade will witness a new uptrend even higher than the ones we've previously seen. Take for example most of the use cases on Ethereum Blockchain have not been fully implemented for the time been and it is with a great adoption we'd witness a great price uptrends.

^^
I know in my country the vast majority of young people 20's and 30's who are working are not getting their $hit together and are not thinking of the future other than owning a house and having kids of their own. This is potentially a problem because a state pension may not be in existence in 40 or 50 years.

I like this post by @Wind_FURY it kind of ties in with the above IMO


Absolutely! also bear in mind that interest is growing by the elite of society to Bitcoin,
they want to own as much as possible, thats what they do and by owning as more and
more there will be less for average people.

There are plenty of reasons to buy and HODL until you are ready to sell or spend.

Yeah, but I am not really trying to either describe any kind of expectation of what guys should be doing in their 20-30s or what guys might end up doing.  My main purpose in going along with your 20-30 year old hypothesis was to attempt to thereafter describe a kind of investment timeline based on average life expectations, and so perhaps if many things seem to be going somewhat regularly and no real advantages or disadvantages for some normie in his/her 20-30s then probably it is best to consider a kind of approximation of what the span of that lifetime might be.

As soon as anyone knows, recognizes and/or understands some personalized differentiation factors, then of course, that person would be most prudent to attempt to account for the personalized differentiation factors rather than attempting to apply some cookie-cutter mold to his/her own situation.

So, yeah, we can start to consider or hypothesized with some default considerations and then for sure, once anyone attempts to get to know each individual, there are likely to be ways in which the person has individual circumstances that need to be taken into account (I am not saying that there does not exist any average joe blow because the average joe blow likely exists, too).

Seems to me that the vast majority of normie peeps do not really make any kinds of solid progress in establishing a decently strong investment portfolio in their 20s, and sure of course, there are some normie peeps who do inherit (or maybe otherwise receive) a decent amount of value while in their 20s, and in those circumstances they might well be put into a position in which they have possible opportunities to invest or to learn how to invest (and hopefully without fucking things up too much).  I am also considering my own circumstances. I did not have any kind of inheritance or anyone giving me money, but I did have some fortune in being able to have pretty regular work and college attendance during my 20s (which usually takes away from abilities to earn money in the short term), so when I look back at my 20s, I see a decent amount of lackings in actually building up my investment portfolio, even though I did believe that I was attempting to make reasonable efforts in that direction.

So without getting into the cases of the large windfall situations, if we are going to presume that there are some in their 20s folks who are both kind of getting their shit together in their 20s and also able to make some meaningful progress during that time, then perhaps they may well be exceptions rather than the norm.. and maybe even financial foundations do not tend to really start to get some kind of build until folks start to get into their 30s and there might begin to be some expectations that they need to make some progress in building their finances... perhaps perhaps?  (sure, quite a bit of speculating going on here because there is likely going to be a decent amount of individual variations).



Oh gawd...    

Hey Wind_FURY, I don't mean to be picking on you too much, but seems to me that you have a lot of tendencies to get caught up with the short-term BTC price momentum and then presume that once the BTC price momentum starts, it is going to continue in that same direction.. It is like a common identifiable characteristic that you seem to have.. sorry to say.

Consider this:
When we were above $50k, you were soon asserting that the BTC price was "never" going below $50k again.  When we got into the lower $30s you were proclaiming that we were doomed to go down into oblivion.  Now, we get a wee bit of a blip to the upside in the BTC price, and you are proclaiming that the "market is telling us" something about the price going UPpity?    

I have a hard time believing that we can make those kinds of short-term BTC price direction assertions (proclamations) much beyond 55/45 if we are referring to short-term BTC price moves; however, we might be able to zoom out and put some credence in seemingly currently valid longer term BTC price prediction models, but still those longer term BTC price prediction models hardly tell us shit about the shorter timelines and the BTC price moves that might take place within the shorter timelines - that can have the BTC price going all over the place, and likely there is some purpose in that from some of the market-makers who are able to cause a reversal in the BTC price, then they will do it.. but sometimes even the usual market-makers will find their lil selfies on the wrong side of a trade because they believe that they can manipulate the BTC price (for example DOWNity) and then they are no longer able to keep the BTC price down.. which is a kind of loss of control of the situation and they might lose their asses off if they are not sufficiently hedged and if they are putting too many resources in one BTC price direction rather than the other...

None of us can really be sure when those BTC price breaks are going to come (including to the UPside), but frequently we can identify them after they had happened to the extent that we know what to look for and we are not getting too distracted and deluded by other nonsense theories (or views of the facts) about what had happened.

Personally, I believe “life” truly starts when you are between 20 and 30 years old. That’s when you start having a job trying to support yourself, looking for someone to partner with and other things adults do. Life.


You are right, but the market is telling us that it wants to move like it’s the final week of January.

There seems to be a bit of gobble-dee-gook in your description regarding how to assess the value of an asset and if it may well have long term prospects.  Let's stick with bitcoin rather than talking about any other asset or token or whatever because this thread is not regarding talking about various shit projects, and likely there is a bit of an assumption here that bitcoin's fundamentals are actually good.  We need not go through that assessment either, but we still might try to consider whether we are in a dip or not or if the price is going to dip more.  Of course, there is a feeling of getting more value if buying on dips, but also if your investment time horizon is long enough, whether you bought on dips or not might not have made as much of a difference as the mere fact of buying and NOT really hesitating to buy on a regular basis until you meet your investment goals - and even your investment goals might be changing if you happen to be a young person and you have a long time horizon to invest before you start to draw upon the investment.

So for example, if you investment timeline is anywhere between 20 and 30 years, you might do some lump sum investments into BTC, just to get started, then you might set up some regular small amount of regular DCA and you might set aside some value as well to prepare to buy on dips.  If the BTC price goes from $38k to $380k in your investment timeline, it might not have mattered very much if you bought some of your early BTC at $38k or $45k.. and furthermore, if you feel like you do not have enough invested, you may well have been buying small amounts of BTC for that whole time and some of your BTC buys might have been as high as $380k...

So in the end, if you end up going from 0 BTC to perhaps having 4 or 5 BTC, you might still feel good about the ongoing persistence that you had over time to just continue to accumulate... or maybe at some point, you reach 10 BTC, and you feel that you really ONLY need to accumulate 4-5BTC to feel comfortable, so you feel like you have twice as many BTC as you need, so at some point you might either stop accumulating or start to sell some of the excessively accumulated BTC.


I doubt that we are in a 2018-like situation right now (remember that 2018 was a down year.. the whole year)..

Seems to me that it is more likely that we are still in the middle of a 2017-like situation.. (perhaps a 2013-like situation) which signifies that the top (so far $64,895) has not yet been reached for this particular cycle.. but where the top would be might be another question.  

Will the top be just a small portion higher, and unable to get above $100k or might we have a top that goes above $100k and so high as $200k to $300k, and sure there are possibilities of going higher too in this particular cycle.

Of course, there are no guarantees regarding where we are at exactly, which implies that we cannot be sure either regarding the direction that we might be going from here, and so people are going to come to varying conclusions regarding what they should do regarding their own strategies based on their assessment of where they believe we might be at.