Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 616. (Read 130936 times)

only people with big patience and capital can buy every dip for the coin and  hold for a month or a years, mostly small traders like me that dont have really good capital to start will buy the coin that i wish to invested if the coin turn out green 1% or when the bitcoin price spike to above $10,000, that's how im trade as small traders.

Can we take any period? What do you think about 2018?


Yes, such levels seem extremely doubtful to me. Even taking into account the upcoming halving (next), the earnings of miners will be huge (and these are the costs that the system incurs during its operation).

Convert daily price chart to weekly, zoom out to maximum, and ask ourselves as humble plebs, "Where's the bear market"?


You don't believe Bitcoin's price will have 6 digits by 2025?

What about the bear market? A large number of people continued to deny this even when it was as obvious as possible. In general, this reasoning is good after the fact - I think at the moment no one will be able to say how long this positive will last and perhaps tomorrow (as well as on any other day) the price will start falling steadily.

Or simply, we plebs are the victims of mood-manipulation through steady onslaught of false information, wrong opinions, and divisive takes.

Zoom out, there's only one Bitcoin trend.

human beings don't like change, that dislike may have different levels for different individuals but everyone is like that. market trend change is also a change that people don't like specially when they are stuck in one trend and have gotten used to it.
what we had recently is a trend change from more of a stable not being able to break the resistance to breakout, increased volume,...
we had the same thing back in 2018 too when people (me too for a little while) didn't want to believe the bull run is over and it was time for a bear market.

I don't get caught up in the Tether FUD stories, and I consider Tether to largely be a positive force on bitcoin, bitcoin prices and of course gravitating into various shitcoins, too... but still providing a lot of liquidity in ways that might be more difficult to accomplish in a world without tether - even though bitcoin is still going to do good whether we have tether in this world or not.



Sure Caitlin Long is one of the most vocal about the rehypothication matter, and she is not the only person who is thinking about such tendencies that traditional financial entities have, which is also going to be tempting for many of the bitcoin exchanges and other third-party entities who hold BTC to inflate their values or not have the amount of BTC on hand that they claim to have  (so long as they can get away with it).  Yeah, I might not have solid information, but I am not going to act like these various third parties are going to be responsible and moral when we already know that they have pretty straight forward incentives to cheat so long as they do not get caught with their pants down.  Rehypothication is the most logical conclusion, and has been happening since bitcoin's inception (when the first third-party came into existence), and there is no reason to believe that it all of a suddenly stopped merely because BIG "honest" WALL Street players came into the scene.. Get real.. wall street players are even more likely to engage in shenanigans because they already know how to do it and get away with it... why would we need solid and direct evidence for such in order to have pretty strong senses that the rehypothication is an ongoing issue - until such time that there are meaningful holdings verification mechanisms in place, which currently, there are not.


Yes.  They can show you, but then they can play trickery with that, too.  Of course, BTC HODLers continue to be concerned about these kinds of transparency matters (or should I say lack of transparency?)..... I am hoping that some of them get fucked over BIG time by a BIG ass BTC price move to the upside and they do not have the BTC that they proclaimed to have.   Some of them might learn from that kind of situation, and hopefully not too many innocent regular peeps get burned in such process.

What makes you say that? Are there new Tether rumors or something?

I remember Caitlin Long trying to get Bakkt to publicly comment on their rehypothecation and commingling policies but I don't think they ever did. I assume it will happen to some degree, but I think Bakkt is still relatively small in terms of holdings.

Does anyone know if and how we can view the total holdings in their vault?

There might be two types of people in the forum, under the current state of the market. Bullish people, and people who can't/won't accept that it's a bull market.

Of course, that is the million dollar question.

Personally, I believe that we are easily within striking distance of returning to 4 digits before we surpass $13,880 - but once we surpass $13,880 it wlll become less likely to return to 4 digits.

Also, if we surpass $17,250 without returning to 4 digits, then it becomes even a farther away likelihood that 4 digits will ever be witnessed again.

Sure, you say that it is inevitable, but your assignment of "inevitability" seems to be too high of an assignment of probabilities because there are very few things that are guaranteed in BTC prices within bitcoinlandia (except perhaps the price that we currently are at, while we are at it).



Agree.  All important factors.


There seems to be increased fractional reserve and/or rehypothecation going on in bitcoin too, which could end up having some explosive effects on BTC price... NOT for sure, but possible.

It will be below 10,000 again its just a question of how long, months, a year or a day perhaps or just a few minutes as some news allows a spike to envelop orders on exchanges.  The price is never perfectly accurate as it largely relies on only partially efficient price discovery  systems and unsophisticated traders for a varied supply and much of the supply is not listed or stored on an exchange.   The time span of selling and also buying will always vary according to the type of market participant.    Theres going to be some people who have BTC stored like a coin down the back of the sofa and they wont sell because they forgot they even have it, source for that is myself and others Ive read as the variance in BTC worth has meant we have pockets stored accidentally and still recoverable.     I always go for the trend not trying to select absolute particular peaks or lows and I believe we traverse quite a diverse range.   Watch the 200 day average if nothing else imo.

Hahaha, no. I believe it won't make a difference if someone bought Bitcoin priced at $10,000, $20,000, or $30,000, when it's on its price-discovery-path to 6 digits, going to 7.

I think this stuff applies to long term investment as much as swing trading. Investment is all about optimizing your capital. Multi-year drawdowns are a killer in terms of opportunity cost. When I see a multi-year bear market on the horizon in one asset or sector, I avoid it entirely. I say that as someone who both trades and invests.


Not really. Market cycles and entry/exit strategies are just as relevant to investment as they are to trading. I get it, you advocate really strict DCA. There are other ways to invest, however.


Spoken like someone who has been around for years, made a lot of money off BTC, and has the benefit of hindsight.

Capitulation happens for a reason: because of investors and bull traders who can't take the pain anymore. I've seen it too many times to ignore it as a phenomenon.


There's been plenty of times when people should have waited or sold, rather than bought, too. What's your point?

It is possible that we are saying very similar things, even though you seem to be emphasizing the trading angle quite a bit more than me, and for sure, I am not opposed to trading, especially BIG swing trading and also a kind incrementalism that involves shaving off some profits on the way UP.

However, I do believe that you and I emphasize degree a bit different, and you seem more inclined to recommend that investors get into trading early on - while I believe that trading is a technique that you might start after you have already established a target position and thereafter you would largely only trade after tailorizing some techniques that were fitting for your own circumstances - so there is no real correct answer including that BTC price direction is very difficult to figure out, even when the direction is seeming obvious.. and surely the direction really seems obvious after the fact.. but not so much while in it.. even though you seem to be suggesting that regular peeps should be able to figure these directional matters out.. especially with a little focus or training.. which I believe is much more difficult than you are making it out to be.. even if on the face of it, it seems easy-peasy.

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Fair enough.. but I still say it is really difficult to know, and for example, if a person has allocated $400 per month, which would be $100 per week, they could attempt to be strategic about it, or maybe they just invest $50 every week and attempt to be strategic about the other $50.  I just have a lot of doubts about being able to know and attempting to be too strategic has high likelihoods of causing the perfect to become the enemy of the good... even though I understand he phenomenon that you are describing.

 


If you are "investing no more than you can afford to lose" then maybe you should not be giving any fucks, rather than being in "pain" from such short to medium term (and seemingly long term) that ends up going up in the long run.. .. even though the short to medium term remains uncomfortable to some degree.

 

did not work for me to cause me to panic.   I did not invest more than I could afford to lose, and I was willing to ride it down to zero if need be, because it was just a relatively smaller (or extra) portion of my income.. and I still had all of my expenses, entertainment, emergency fund, etc covered by other funds. Sure, the amount invested added up during time, but I was stil just taking from an already decided set-aside allocated amount.. that I was willing to lose if prices kept going down, but I had a long term assessment that the asset was likely to perform well in the longer run... couple of years or even that my investment turned into a longer time horizon to allow it to play out. 

Therefore, I did not sell any of my bitcoins, especially during my accumulation phase and even largely during my maintenance phase (which seems to be where I am at currently, even though I am thinking that I will advance to some kind of phase that has liquidations aspects in the coming few years)... except for I would sometimes sell strategically based on formulaic price rises that I had predetermined, and any BTC that I sell that goes beyond the formulaic amounts, I tend to replace, unless I can just plug any of my possibly relatively small amounts of sales into my already existing formulaic buy back practices.

 

Perhaps we agree a little bit here.  I do agree with figuring out ways to structure strategy to attempt to remove a lot of emotion.. so if you plan to buy on the way down or you plan to sell on the way up.. you predetermine amounts that work for you so that you don't really run out of fiat to buy or BTC to sell if the BTC price goes running in one direction or another.

 

Sure, there are likely ways to take a decent amount of psychology out of investing.. so sure, even creating trading strategies that hedge or try to take out psychology seem to be very difficult techniques, especially if any kind of leverage is involved.. and that is part of the reason that I become a bit skeptical of any leverage, and I tend to recognize some more moderate ways of attempting to achieve similar goals without leverage (or only limited leverage if you can figure out how to properly employ it).  Even just simple techniques of going long and closing longs, can become complicated, and if you add leverage on top of that, whewfta... becomes even more complicated to figure out.. and more likely to screw up.

 

Hey... I like a lot of your posts, so I suppose that we are just batting around some ideas here.  Each person does have to decide for themself what they believe is going to work and to try to put their ideas to practice.. and sure sometimes it does not work, sometimes they learn and sometimes they do not.

Even if you, exstasie, do not recall times in which you may have influenced folks to sit and wait, even though they maybe should have just bought, rather than waiting, sometimes bearish calls do cause people to overly play bearish scenarios or whatever, and of course, we can sometimes blame them, too for assigning too high of a probability to downward BTC price movements that do not end up materializing... so yeah, buy on every dip or buy every week, or some variation of these techniques are going to vary between different person, and maybe we even argue about which ones work better under which scenarios and if some of them just work better as an overall rule.. for example, when in doubt,  buy a little within your weekly budget rather than waiting.. or maybe just buy the whole weeks allowance.. surely discretionary matters, exist here..

FTFY

Am I too bold with my above intervention into your contents, Wind_FURY?

Remember the ATH of $1,163 that lasted from late November 2014 until early 2017.  By the time august/September 2017 came, it became a bit of a fantasy, aka golden opportunity to buy BTC below $2k or $3k....

Hey, surely we did not appreciate such below $2k or $3k golden opportunity that was presented to us even in late 2017, and there were a lot of hopenings folks who predicted that they were going to be able to obtain BTC for less than $3k or even less than $2k in 2018, 2019 and even in recent times of the first half of 2020 - but doesn't it seem as if some of those hopes for sub $2k and even hopes for sub $3k coins are fading out of any kind of meaningful reality.. sure there is a chance... sure there is a chance...  but still?

Doesn't sub $3k seem like a kind of "golden opportunity", currently?

Thus, I anticipate sub $25k or sub $30k are going to be considered as quite low BTC prices by the time we reach 2025.... Of course, my anticipation regarding where the BTC price might be is far from a sure thing, and seems a bit unreal at this point as I type, but surely, if we look back historically in 2015/2016, it was a bit of a seeming unreality for some people to be speculating that $2k to $3k was going to be a future BTC price floor.  

In 2015/2016 while BTC prices were in the $200s and $300s and even while BTC prices were seemingly solidly in the triple digits, I know specific people who I had tried to direct them in regard to getting them to invest in BTC  and informing them that the BTC price would be going up to $3k to $5k range in the coming years (having looked at previous price bubbles as a kind of model pattern that was likely to repeat), and I was looked at and really talked to as if I were a fantasizing child engaging in pie in the sky thinking - and most of the peeps that I spoke with in this positive about BTC direction did not even listen to me at all and ended up doing their own thing, which was either NOT to buy any BTC or if they did buy to cash out way too much BTC, way too soon... but there was one or two action takers (I really can pinpoint only one besides myself) who actually hung onto most of the acquired coins and has become quite more better off and comfortable overall in personal finances due to such allowing the BTC investment to ride choice, as I had suggested to be the better approach to BTC.**

**By the way, historically, when I had been counseling anyone in terms of their BTC investments / allocation choices / strategies, I frequently would make sure that I assert that I am not responsible at all, for their investment choices, and they are completely responsible for their BTC investment, allocations, strategies etc.. and I give an overall overview regarding what I was doing with mine, which has been (and continues) largely just HODLing onto most of mine (using myself as a kind of role model)..

I don't know why so many BTC entrants end up valuing so much a 2x or 4x or BTC price appreciation, and they just cannot help themselves from cashing out every damned satoshi that they have and to thereafter pat themselves on the back for having had made such a short-term killing by cashing out.. blah blah blah... a repeating phenomenon.

I believe some of the comments on Twitter are right.

2025, the year we look back, and remember the "good old days" when we had the golden opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $10,000.

I think every investor should optimize their strategy. That's all I'm talking about. Even simple rules like "scale in during accumulation phases and scale out during blow off tops" will give you a huge edge over typical investors, who usually do the exact opposite.

The problem with planning to buy all the way down in a bear market? Most investors end up piling all their capital in long before the bear market is over since they don't recognize how long it can last. It's not just a matter of opportunity cost and badly optimizing capital either. Being in drawdown for multiple years is extremely painful. Many will just capitulate before price recovers (this is why we refer to 2015 and probably now 2020 as capitulations), selling to patient, stronger hands who understand the difference between accumulation and distribution phases.

That's why I strongly advocate at least loosely basing investment strategy around market cycles. Lacking awareness of them is what causes many people to buy high and sell low. I'm thinking as much about investor psychology and the likelihood that someone will capitulate as much as I am about their average entry price.


I've never advocated anything like that. I am only suggesting that an "always buy now" strategy is not optimal in terms of risk vs. reward. Maximizing my long terms BTC holdings is very important to me, and I am just imparting my experience since 2013 regarding the best way to do that.